AL-JMC: Moore +5

[Tender Branson]

Looking good for Moore, but polls with +5 can still be wrong ... (see WI etc. last year, just the other way round this time).

But I wouldn't bet on it. MT-AL also had a badly-behaving Republican and he still won ...

[Dr. Arch]

Looking good for Moore, but polls with +5 can still be wrong ... (see WI etc. last year, just the other way round this time).

But I wouldn't bet on it. MT-AL also had a badly-behaving Republican and he still won ...

A child diddler is hardly the same as assaulting a reporter, although both are disqualifying, but the circumstances were different in MT.

[Brittain33]

[Dr. Arch]

3% 18-34... wtf

[Tender Branson]

3% 18-34... wtf

Young people are hardly voting in these very-low turnout special elections.

Only the reliable old voters are turning out ...

[KingSweden]

That.... uh, that doesn’t look right

FWIW Nate Cohn is highly skeptical of this poll too.

Safest bet? Assume this is Tossup/Tilt R based on fundamentals of race (candidate quality compared to inelasticity if the state), be skeptical of polling turnout models, and accept that we have no idea what’s going on.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The demographics are really really off and probably very wrong for the actual electorate but this poll provides evidence to the theory that Roy Moore has mostly recovered from his child predator scandal.

[Matty]

This board has been obsessing over poll trends, and this poll clearly shows a trend

The 3% 18-34 electorate was identical to the previous poll that showed Jones up 4

So, all else being held equal, there was movement even if the actual margin is off

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think that instead of attacking IceSpear maybe you people should instead attack Alabama Republicans for constantly vindicating him.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This board has been obsessing over poll trends, and this poll clearly shows a trend

The 3% 18-34 electorate was identical to the previous poll that showed Jones up 4

So, all else being held equal, there was movement even if the actual margin is off

Exactly this

[IceSpear]

I tried to tell you what was going on. I really tried. I will now accept my accolades.

[IceSpear]

Yep. IceSpear is favored to get his wish. Moving this from Toss-Up to Lean R.

It's not my wish. It's just reality. Atlas really needs to learn the difference.

I think that instead of attacking IceSpear maybe you people should instead attack Alabama Republicans for constantly vindicating him.

I have received constant scorn and abuse since pointing out the fact that Moore was inevitable despite his pedophilia. I wonder if certain posters will man up and apologize in 2 weeks.

[BudgieForce]

Three straight polls have Moore leading

This one is a 9 point swing to Moore

Of course this board tries to unskew

I don't want it to happen but all signs point to Moore recovering

Unskewing and pointing out methodology problems are two different things. A landline only poll with way too many old people deserves skeptism.

[IceSpear]

Nobody had any problem with JMC's poll when it showed Jones ahead. Just accept that Moore is inevitable now and spare yourselves the disappointment.

[BudgieForce]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

[BudgieForce]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...


We got it the first 200 times.

[Matty]

Three straight polls have Moore leading

This one is a 9 point swing to Moore

Of course this board tries to unskew

I don't want it to happen but all signs point to Moore recovering

Unskewing and pointing out methodology problems are two different things. A landline only poll with way too many old people deserves skeptism.

The poll demographics are EXACTLY the same as the previous JMC poll that had Jones up 4

Even if the margin is off, it is still a 9 point trend

[BudgieForce]

Three straight polls have Moore leading

This one is a 9 point swing to Moore

Of course this board tries to unskew

I don't want it to happen but all signs point to Moore recovering

Unskewing and pointing out methodology problems are two different things. A landline only poll with way too many old people deserves skeptism.

The poll demographics are EXACTLY the same as the previous JMC poll that had Jones up 4

Even if the margin is off, it is still a 9 point trend

It deserved skeptism then to. After Virginia, I'm less likely to believe trends when most polls we're getting are from junk firms like Emerson and Gravis.

[The Other Castro]

The trend clearly does not appear good for Jones within this poll, though the age breakdowns are questionable. This still feels too uncertain to move out of Tossup for me.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Who is the oversensitive pussy that reported my last post?

[IceSpear]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

[Person Man]

Who is the oversensitive pussy that reported my last post?

Some snowflake who support safe spaces for felons and their enablers.

[BudgieForce]

IceSpear, the reason you get scorn is because you've become insufferable.

If I'm "insufferable", it's because I'm pointing out the reality that you guys aren't going to get your pony because Alabama voters are deplorable. The truth hurts.

Lol...

We got it the first 200 times.

Apparently not, since you've all been insisting I'm wrong, stupid, a concern troll, etc. Nearly every post I've made about this race has been vindicated. And the final vindication will come on December 12th.

You can't be vindicated if the election hasn't happened yet.

[I’m not Stu]

Moore (R): 49
Jones (D): 44
McBride (I): N/A
Bishop (L): 2
Crutcher (I): 1
Kirtdoll (I): 1
Watson (R): <1
Undecided: 5