Gray actually is a pretty strong candidate. I'll change my rating to likely R.
I think Gray or McGrath would win, but I’m gonna go against the CW here a bit. I actually think McGrath is a stronger candidate and, judging by her ads, doesn’t seem to have any intention of nationalizing the race in a way that would hurt the her in KY-6. Both of her ads were basically tied for the best House candidate ads I’ve seen since Barrow’s gun ad. I suspect she’s got more crossover appeal than Gray (who I worry would be easier to brand as a “Lexington Liberal” or some such nonsense and whose homosexuality could hurt him in this district) and the thing about Gray wining the district against Paul is that Paul is kind of a bad fit for KY. OTOH, it’s still impressive given that it coincided with the 2016 Presidential election. I think there are legitimate arguments for nominating Gray and McGrath, but again, either would beat Barr imo.
