°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,183
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« on: December 17, 2017, 02:36:32 PM » |
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It's impossible to say whether the map will favor Democrats or Republicans that far in the future, but unless states like TX,FL, & OH (and a few others) start trending in the Democrats' favor in the next 10-20 years the Democrats could find that they have a disadvantage in the electoral college. It is within the plausible realm of possibility that FL could be a key swing state unless it moves more and more into the Democratic column. I don't know, but the map has definitely been moving in the GOP direction for the past 50 years or so.
Since (after) 1976 the Democrats have been losing the confederate states which now make up a large portion of the GOP base and the odds that a Democrat will ever lose the popular vote and win the electoral college are getting slimmer and slimmer and the possibility of the reverse is either getting more likely or remaining the same.
By 2032, the Democrats will have a hard time creating a firewall, since the current map is shifting toward a GOP advantage, unless states like FL or OH start trending more Democratic.
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