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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2050 electoral votes
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Author Topic: 2050 electoral votes  (Read 4200 times)
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Blairite
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« Reply #25 on: December 18, 2017, 02:10:52 pm »

Also, I wouldn't rule out Texas crossing California for 1st place in population by the 2050 census, though it probably won't happen until 2060-2070. ever.
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #26 on: December 18, 2017, 09:36:14 pm »

The northeast and midwest will have a population boom due to residents of southwest fleeing the effects of climate change
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #27 on: December 19, 2017, 03:59:51 pm »

Moderate PA republican vs Huey Long esque democrat from the south.
I would have thought the entire South would be Democratic in this scenario.
Atlanta flipped GA, and the republican vice president elect was a sitting senator from Tennessee (who still barely carried his own home state, and managed to outrun the top of ticket by something like 7 points.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: December 19, 2017, 10:14:07 pm »

Moderate PA republican vs Huey Long esque democrat from the south.
I would have thought the entire South would be Democratic in this scenario.
Atlanta flipped GA, and the republican vice president elect was a sitting senator from Tennessee (who still barely carried his own home state, and managed to outrun the top of ticket by something like 7 points.

I assume CA was a swing state that barely went for the Dem in this scenario?
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #29 on: December 21, 2017, 11:07:58 am »

Moderate PA republican vs Huey Long esque democrat from the south.
I would have thought the entire South would be Democratic in this scenario.
Atlanta flipped GA, and the republican vice president elect was a sitting senator from Tennessee (who still barely carried his own home state, and managed to outrun the top of ticket by something like 7 points.

I assume CA was a swing state that barely went for the Dem in this scenario?
Yes.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2018, 05:30:30 am »

The northeast and midwest will have a population boom due to residents of southwest fleeing the effects of climate change

Same with the Pacific NW
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Orser67
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« Reply #31 on: January 15, 2018, 03:46:49 pm »

2050 electoral vote predictions with 2016 colors/shadings

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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2018, 01:49:34 pm »

My predictions, based on 2010-2017 changes:
Alabama - Will probably lose a couple seats by 2050 due to slow growth.
Alaska - One seat forever.
Arizona - A 13th seat is likely by 2050.
Arkansas - I doubt there will be much change here.
California - Close to gaining a 54th seat, probably in 2030.
Colorado - A couple seats are likely, probably in 2020 and 2040.
Delaware - May gain a second district, but definitely not by 2050. is slowly inching up.
Florida - Will gain many seats by 2050, at least 1 per census, 2 in 2020. At least 32 seats in 2050.
Georgia - a 15th seat is near certain by 2050.
Hawaii - Will stay at 2 seats for a few centuries, growth right around average.
Idaho - A 3rd seat near certain in 2030.
Illinois - Will almost certainly continue to lose 1 seat per census. 14 seats in 2050 at that rate.
Indiana - Likely loss of 9th seat in 2040, if not in 2030.
Iowa - Barely lost 5th seat in 2010. Will likely still be holding onto 4th seat in 2050.
Kansas - Loss of 4th seat possible.
Kentucky - keeping 6th seat likely, but barely hanging on.
Louisiana - May lose 6th seat by 2050.
Maine - Barely hanging onto 2nd seat by 2050.
Maryland - Near-average growth, staying at 8 seats for decades.
Massachusetts - 9th seat safe in 2050, until maybe 2090.
Michigan - Loss of one seat per census likely, maybe not in 2050. Probably 11 seats in 2050.
Minnesota - losing 8th seat in 2020.
Mississippi - way below average, practically stagnant growth. Loss of 4th seat near certain by 2050.
Missouri - Possibility of loss of 8th seat in 2060, if not 2050.
Montana - 2nd seat a maybe, within reach by 2050.
Nebraska - Near average growth, sticking with 3 seats.
Nevada - 5th seat very likely, if not certain, by 2060, if not 2050.
New Hampshire - Staying at 2 seats in 2050.
New Jersey - May lose a seat or two by 2050.
New Mexico - Loss of 3rd seat possible by 2050.
New York - Loss of one seat per census possible.
North Carolina - 14th seat certain in 2020, 15th seat possible by 2050.
North Dakota - Growth slowing, almost certainly will stick with one seat for decades to come.
Ohio - May lose 2 or 3 seats by 2050. 11 or 12 seats likely in 2050.
Oklahoma - Will keep 5th seat well past 2050.
Oregon - 6th seat certain in 2020. 7th seat somewhat likely, within reach in 2050.
Pennsylvania - Loss of one seat per census highly likely.
Rhode Island - Will become at-large in 2020 for the first time in history.
South Carolina - 8th seat possible by 2050.
South Dakota - Inching up, no chance of 2nd seat by 2050, however.
Tennessee - Slim chance of 10th seat by 2050.
Texas - Expected to nearly double its 2010 population by 2050. Multiple seats per census certain. May catch up to California.
Utah - 5th seat certain, 6th seat quite likely by 2050.
Vermont - One seat forever.
Virginia - Will just miss the cut for 12th seat in 2020, will get it in 2030.
Washington - 11th seat near certain, 12th seat possible by 2050.
West Virginia - Goodbye 3rd seat in 2020. Growth is negative.
Wisconsin - Barely hanging onto 8th seat in 2020, will lose it in 2030.
Wyoming - One seat forever.
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x-Guy
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« Reply #33 on: January 19, 2018, 11:20:27 pm »

Interesting map...
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