Can the GOP consistently win national elections w/o making gains with Hispanics?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:03:04 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Can the GOP consistently win national elections w/o making gains with Hispanics?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: -
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 22

Author Topic: Can the GOP consistently win national elections w/o making gains with Hispanics?  (Read 676 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 16, 2018, 01:58:27 AM »

This is an interesting debate I have had with some on irc; so I thought it would be interested to ask Atlasia about this. Assume in this situation that Republicans continue to only get 29% of the Hispanic vote in future national elections and population growth rates remain the same as they currently are.

———
I just can’t see a strong  path forward for the GOP without major inroads with Hispanics. As we have seen the GOP looks to be close to nearing their ceiling with white voters and it probably is tough for Republicans to make substantial gains with more economically liberal whites that vote dem while keeping their current support with economically conservative suburbanites. Republicans also will probably have a tougher time making substantial gains within the African American community based on their long time loyalty to Democrats. 
Logged
PoliticalShelter
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 407
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2018, 07:29:27 AM »

They wont as long as the assumption is that White Hispanics will continue to identify as Hispanic and wont eventually decide to start identifying as white.

If that were to happen, then the GOP would be in a better position going forward, although at a disadvantage. If on top of this the GOP could somehow start getting say 20% of the AA vote (which is the percentage, popular republican governors usually get in their re-election campaigns) then they would be in a very good position (although obviously this isn't going to happen in any time in the near future).

Also I don't think the GOP has quite maxed out the white vote (certainly not the non-southern white vote).
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2018, 01:20:07 PM »

Unless whites start voting 65-35 R or better, no.
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2018, 11:43:55 PM »

I could see them making inroads with Asian voters (Bob Dole won them in 1996 afterall so it's not impossible). If they do this and maintain the amount of White Voters they currently have (I personally do think they hit their ceiling with Whites though), they can win nationally although barely.
Logged
catographer
Megameow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,498
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2018, 12:01:14 AM »

it seems that the GOP has a ceiling with white voters (60% in 2012 and 2016). if they want a chance of winning the national popular vote, they gotta win some nonwhites and do better than Trump did (unless somehow the dems bottom out even further with whites, which i doubt is possible unless a GOP candidate combines Trump's appeal to noncollege and Bush's appeal to college whites).
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2018, 01:56:41 AM »

For another decade or so, yes. In 2012, Romney could have won anywhere from 9-45% of the Latino vote and it wouldn't have made a difference in any state's outcome with the exception of FL (which was the closest state nationally; decided by less than 1 point).

Latinos are among the least optimally-positioned voting groups in the country for presidential elections; the vast majority are in states that are either already safe DEM or safe GOP. Coupled with the fact that their share of the population versus their share of the current and/or eligible electorate means they're horribly under-represented leads to them having minimal effect on national outcomes (barring the occasional very-close state race or the outcome of the national PV).

There's plenty of room in a hypothetical 2020 election where - all other factors equal - Trump could win 15% of the Latino vote in one scenario and 40% in another, and yet there be no difference in the Electoral College outcome whatsoever.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.224 seconds with 14 queries.