I understand what you are driving at. Maybe the party officials are really going to elect Laschet to the chairmanship in a backroom deal, ...
Since the new CDU chairman is going to be elected in an open party convention, there won't exactly be a backroom deal here. Of course each candidate will canvass for support among the delegates. But my point was since Laschet is the establishment candidate and and the convention delegates are party establishment this means an advantage for Laschet that isn't reflected in opinion polls of CDU/CSU voters.
... but I can't imagine how they would dare to opt against the most popular Union candidate after the Queen herself when it come to the selection of the chancellorship nominee.
I tried to sum up the possible reasons in my previous posts:
- We don't actually know yet whether Söder wants to run for Chancellor. Granted, it's more than possible that he will in the end with all his previous statements to the contrary merely having been tactical, but we don't know that for certain yet. He at least seems to keep himself the option open of becoming the next Franz Josef Strauß, that is being a very popular long-term Bavarian minister-president who frequently attacks a CDU-led federal government from his safe and comfortable position down south.
- Some in the CDU may have reservations to outsource the Chancellor-candidacy to someone from "another" political party, especially if there are a number of high-profile people within the CDU who would want to become Chancellor themselves.
- There might be reservations within the CDU to give it to the CSU because in the previous two instances that happened the CDU/CSU eventually lost the election (and at the very least this would be one of the arguments brought forward by Laschet supporters as to why their man should be Chancellor-candidate).
- We don't know for certain whom the previous Merz/Röttgen/Spahn support would coalesce around if it ends up a straight Laschet/Söder two-man contest. My guess is that most Merz supporters might go for Söder, while Laschet would end up with the Röttgen/Spahn camp (espcially since Spahn has already formed an alliance with Laschet). It also depends on how good and how fast Laschet would be able to consolidate his position within the CDU once elected chairman. The days and weeks immediately after a Laschet election would be critical. He'd probably receive a bit of a convention/election bump (depending on how decisive the vote for him at the convention would have been), that he then needs to further build into momentum against Söder.
- Söder is seen as a maverick and maybe even a bit of a loose cannon due to his behaviour and the unilateral actions he sometimes had undertaken during the COVID crisis in Bavaria, while Laschet is more regarded as a team player and bridge builder. CDU establishment might be more comfortable with him rather than Söder.
- The COVID pandemic isn't over yet and there's still room for something unpredictable to happen that tarnishes Söder's reputation.
- Unlike the party chairmanship, the Chancellor-candidacy will most likely be decided in backroom deals in which the aforementioned factors might come into play.
All that being said, it's of course quite possible that Söder will indeed become CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate - and even Germany's next Chancellor - in the end. I'm merely warning against treating him as someone inevitable. I wouldn't count Laschet out yet, although the NRW minister-president isn't exactly inevitable either.
Don't forget, Laschet has also had his scandals, for example his unfair bashing of Romanians and Bulgarians during the Tönnies affair.
Can't really see Laschet getting hurt by that - very minor - scandal. I mean I even forgot that this episode even happened until I read it here now. It's true though that Laschet's reputation had been a bit tarnished by his push to open up society and the economy faster this spring which almost made him look like a mini-Trump/Bolsonaro. Since then I had the impression that he toned down this behaviour though.
The bottom line is that I didn't know if brucejoel99 was talking about the CDU chair or about the Union's nominee for chancellor. I zeroes in on the latter, whereas you fixate on the former.
I wasn't aware that I "fixated" on anything, since I tried to give my assessement on both the CDU chairmanship and CDU/CSU Chancellor-candicacy races.
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