New Republic: The Democrats Must Nominate Another Woman for President

[Mr. Morden]

Bill Scher has a new story about this in Politico:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/24/2020-year-of-woman-democrats-post-weinstein-kamala-harris-klobuchar-gillibrand-warren-215860

He makes an interesting point about the potential landmines that might exist for male candidates running against a woman in the Democratic primaries, that might not have existed before this year’s cultural moment:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

“Kill a primary candidacy dead” may be overkill, but I can certainly imagine a repeat of something like “you’re likable enough” being received in a different way in 2020 compared to 2008.

[NOVA Green]

Thanks Virginia for posting this article and raising the subject of how the recent mobilization of women against sexual harassment and assault, which has taken down powerful and wealthy Men from major News Organizations, Entertainment Industry, and increasingly both Democratic and Republican political leaders alike (Especially at the Statewide level), will play out in 2018 and 2020.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that this year in particular, and likely the political reverberations next year, will long be viewed as a seminal moment historically as part of another wave of the Feminist Movement within the United States.

Me and my wife have been talking about this subject, especially since the VA/NJ elections and the various overlaps with Sexual Harassment and Sexual Assault credible accusations that have been leveled against so many powerful Men and have dominated the headlines over the past few months.

When it comes to political representation, the United States lags far behind many other countries looking simply at the representation in State Legislatures, Governors Offices, the US House & Senate, and yes of course the Presidency....

In many statewide legislatures, which is after all the starting point towards developing a career in politics, there has long been a cultural of predatory sexual conduct, regardless of "Red" and "Blue" states in our Country.... let's just call it the "Good old Boys Club"....

What happens in Tallahassee stays in Tallahassee, what happens in Salem, Oregon stays in Salem, etc....

The US House and US Senate tend to be a bit more circumspect about how they conduct their private activities, since a whiff of a sexual scandal could easily take down a House member that runs every two years for reelection, and a US-SEN member, even in a "Safe" Party seat always needs to worried about being Primaried or rail-roaded out of town (Look at Packwood from Oregon for example).

So, what are the potential political implications now that the crowbar has exposed the dirty secrets of institutions where individuals are used to operating with relative impunity within large organizations that don't appear to actually follow the same type of sexual harassment protocols that most of us in the Private Sector had to read, understand, and follow, as part of our "On-boarding" process with HR as part of New Hire Orientations.... 

Although, I won't at this point go into the list of various Women from both political parties that might well win their respective Parties nominations as Candidate for President of the United States, here's what I suspect we will see in both the short and medium term:

1.) If Moore loses in Alabama on December 12th, this will obviously change the calculations a bit... Not to bag on 'Bama, but with almost 40% of voters self-identifying as White Evangelicals (Which vote even more overwhelmingly 'Pub in 'Bama than White voters overall). This would indicate that good Men and Women of faith are willing to do the unthinkable and vote for a Democrat from Alabama, rather than vote for someone who appears to be not only a serial sexual harasser, but also an individual who has committed sexual assault, and in at least one occasion involving a minor (As defined by Alabama Statute).

2.) Regardless of Alabama (The results of which could give us some tea leaves to look at regarding how this will play out in the 2018 election cycle), I believe that women will make major electoral gains in State House and Senate races.

Despite partisan Gerrymandering that dramatically shifted precinct boundaries in most States to the 'Pubs gain between '10 and '20, this will most likely disproportionately work to the Democrats advantage....

3.) US House Races

Virginia and New Jersey '17 results appear to indicate that the swings we saw in '16 in heavily White Upper Middle-Class communities will likely be replicated in many of the Clinton Pres > 'Pub House seats.

I would not be surprised to see Female Democrats replace "Moderate" Male Republicans in many of these districts, many of whom have already announced their retirement for the '18 GE Election cycle.

Additionally, even in 'Pub districts where that are considered relatively safe, we will likely see some major swings on the margins, even though the 'Pubs still narrowly hold their seats.... This does not just include HRC '16 Districts held by 'Pubs, but many other districts as well.

4.) US Senate Races:

I suspect that we will see Democrats not only hold most of their open seats, especially if they can tie the Republican Party to supporters of Moore in 'Bama....

There's a lot going on here, but with Trump's approvals underwater, even among many of his "base voters", it's not unreasonable to see Dems pick up AZ and NV, hold ND, MO and various other states where the 'Pubs once had a serious chance to increase their margins in the US-SEN.

The accusations against Moore are not only disgusting, but additionally reflect extremely poorly upon the Republican national brand, especially in the era of Trump (Who has his own issues regarding accusations of sexual harassment and assault).

5.) I also suspect we will start to see quite a few more Female Republicans popping up in "safe" State House and Senate districts, even in places where the traditional concept was that "the Woman's Place is in the Home and Church, and not the Office or Politics".

6.) US Presidential Election- 2020

Who knows what the future will hold here, but I suspect a lot of that might well be influenced be results from the 2018 General Election.

Honestly, I would not be surprised to see Carly or Meg run against Trump in 2020, if he's the dawg to beat.... We might have a few more Female 'Pub pols jumping into the race (South Carolina anyone???)

Dem side: well you and others have already pulled the list of the most likely women Democratic contenders in the race, but hell a lot can happen in just a few short years....

So to close, and slightly off-topic, but I was listening to some old music from my time some decades back involved in the Anti-Apartheid movement (Because of all of the political changes that happened in Zimbabwe just a few days ago), and was reminded of a pirate radio broadcast from the African National Congress (ANC) that was widely listed to in South Africa in the Apartheid era, where their official spokesperson declares "The Year of Women"....

I think this was circa '86/'87 and have about 90 minutes of ANC pirate radio broadcasts on cassette tapes somewhere in my library, and although it is only spoken word by Oliver Tambo (One of the original founders of the ANC along with Nelson Mandela), still sounds extremely topical today in the United States, despite the Male vocals if one listens closely it is a challenge to Patriarchy within the ANC as well as building a broader revolutionary regime to overthrow the Apartheid Regime in South Afrika....

Would strongly suggest anyone who is interested to at least throw this on as a background soundtrack....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Tambo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMAMJDUH3xk

I declare 2018 to be the Year of Women, when it comes to greater representation and equality in the United States, regardless of how many Democrats fall on the same swords as Republicans because of their disgusting conduct and behavior.....

[Medal506]

My prediction is Kamala Harris wins the nomination since California is fourth to vote and the establishment democrats from that point will be pushing for her to defeat anyone else that stands in her way

[Mr. Morden]

My prediction is Kamala Harris wins the nomination since California is fourth to vote

No it isn't.  The first four (tentatively) are Iowa, NH, Nevada, and South Carolina, and then comes Super Tuesday, when California, Texas, and probably about ten other states all vote.

[Possiblymaybe]

"In 2016, women composed nearly 60 percent of the Democratic presidential primary electorate, many of whom are understandably pining for the karmic justice of defeating Trump with shards from a glass ceiling that Hillary Clinton could not break. In 2001, according to Gallup, only 36 percent of Democrats considered themselves liberal on social issues. Since 2015, self-identified social liberals encompass a 53-percent majority of Democrats. These are voters who ignored the naysayers and elected the first African-American president. They’ve grown accustomed to breaking barriers and won’t readily accept a coldly pessimistic argument that running another woman against Trump would be a bad idea......"
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/24/2020-year-of-woman-democrats-post-weinstein-kamala-harris-klobuchar-gillibrand-warren-215860

[Pericles]

I think it'll be Warren-Harris is also a possibility though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nominate a good woman, not some establishment hack. Anyways, 1992 was the year of the woman.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

In light of all of the sexual harassment scandals, I’m completely open to an all-women ticket. The likeliest one would be Warren/Harris which would be powerful.

[Beet]

I am so sick of expectations being hyped up. Middle America is misogynist, full stop. It will not elect a woman.

[IceSpear]

I am so sick of expectations being hyped up. Middle America is misogynist, full stop. It will not elect a woman.

Not that I disagree that Middle America is misogynist, but Hillary only lost because of Comey and an archaic outdated electoral college system.

It'll be harder for Democrats to win if they nominate a woman though, for sure. But not impossible.

[Beet]

I am so sick of expectations being hyped up. Middle America is misogynist, full stop. It will not elect a woman.

Not that I disagree that Middle America is misogynist, but Hillary only lost because of Comey and an archaic outdated electoral college system.

It'll be harder for Democrats to win if they nominate a woman though, for sure. But not impossible.

The electoral college will still be around in 2020 and the Comey Letter, decisive as it was, was ultimately a product of the boys’ club atmosphere of the FBI (that will still be around too). Does anyone believe if the FBI was 88% female that the same resentments would have bubbled up to influence Comey to go public before a leak?

[IceSpear]

I am so sick of expectations being hyped up. Middle America is misogynist, full stop. It will not elect a woman.

Not that I disagree that Middle America is misogynist, but Hillary only lost because of Comey and an archaic outdated electoral college system.

It'll be harder for Democrats to win if they nominate a woman though, for sure. But not impossible.

The electoral college will still be around in 2020 and the Comey Letter, decisive as it was, was ultimately a product of the boys’ club atmosphere of the FBI (that will still be around too). Does anyone believe if the FBI was 88% female that the same resentments would have bubbled up to influence Comey to go public before a leak?

Yeah, I definitely agree with you there. Like I said, nominating a woman would be a major handicap. But it's hard to argue it's impossible when Hillary came so close and actually won millions more votes than Trump did.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am so sick of expectations being hyped up. Middle America is misogynist, full stop. It will not elect a woman.

Trump didn't even win 50 percent of the vote in MI/WI/PA/FL and this was with Hillary Clinton being a polarizing candidate with 30 years of political baggage, the AA vote being depressed, Comey dropping the letter 11 days before the election, and quite frankly a large portion of the electorate thinking Hillary had it in the bag and staying home. The 2020 nominee does not even NEED Middle (White) America to win the election anyway. Get black people in Wayne County to vote and aid a massive voter registration for displaced Puerto Ricans in Florida (while also ginning up AA and millenial turnout), and the Democrat wins.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I remember seeing a sports show 20+ years ago. One of the commentators was a veteran journalist who had lived for many years in the US.

Somehow the conversation drifted towards the then looming 1996 presidential election and the possibility that Colin Powell might become the first African-American presidential nominee of a major party. The veteran journalist I mentioned said that it won't surprise him at all if Americans elect a black president, and that in fact he expects it to happen sooner than most of us believed back then.
But at the same time he opined that "What will never happen is Americans electing a woman president. They just aren't than kind of people".

[Panhandle Progressive]

I remember seeing a sports show 20+ years ago. One of the commentators was a veteran journalist who had lived for many years in the US.

Somehow the conversation drifted towards the then looming 1996 presidential election and the possibility that Colin Powell might become the first African-American presidential nominee of a major party. The veteran journalist I mentioned said that it won't surprise him at all if Americans elect a black president, and that in fact he expects it to happen sooner than most of us believed back then.
But at the same time he opined that "What will never happen is Americans electing a woman president. They just aren't than kind of people".

And he was wrong. Because a majority of the voters supported her. She easily won the popular.

[libertpaulian]

You do realize that shrieking "MUH MISOGYNY" isn't a convincing strategy, right?  President Obama took the high road in 2008 by rarely invoking race and racism into the mix.  Maybe a woman nominee (whoever she may be) should take a similar, wise road.

[IceSpear]

You do realize that shrieking "MUH MISOGYNY" isn't a convincing strategy, right?  President Obama took the high road in 2008 by rarely invoking race and racism into the mix.  Maybe a woman nominee (whoever she may be) should take a similar, wise road.

Nobody said it's a good political strategy. But the truth often isn't.

[NOVA Green]

Mod(s)

Why can't this thread be combined with Virginia's thread, since it is essentially the same subject, regardless of the different news publication?

Arguably this lack of consolidation is part of the reason why the 2020 thread is virtually unreadable...

[Mr. Morden]

Mod(s)

Why can't this thread be combined with Virginia's thread, since it is essentially the same subject, regardless of the different news publication?

Arguably this lack of consolidation is part of the reason why the 2020 thread is virtually unreadable...

Report the OP to the moderator.  That has a better chance of getting results than posting your complaint here.

Also, it should probably also be reported for copyright infringement, since the quote in the OP is way too long.

[Possiblymaybe]

Mod(s)

Why can't this thread be combined with Virginia's thread, since it is essentially the same subject, regardless of the different news publication?

Arguably this lack of consolidation is part of the reason why the 2020 thread is virtually unreadable...

Report the OP to the moderator.  That has a better chance of getting results than posting your complaint here.

Also, it should probably also be reported for copyright infringement, since the quote in the OP is way too long.

Hey there why are you saying he should report me? There’s a limit to how many characters you can post (it basically stops you from posting more than a certain number of characters ), so I don’t think I did something wrong.
You can put the two threads together if it really bothers you but tbh I see multiple threads on the same issue constantly, so I wasn’t aware that was an issue...

[Virginiá]

Hey there why are you saying he should report me? There’s a limit to how many characters you can post (it basically stops you from posting more than a certain number of characters ), so I don’t think I did something wrong.
You can put the two threads together if it really bothers you but tbh I see multiple threads on the same issue constantly, so I wasn’t aware that was an issue...

Well, there is actually a rule against re-posting entire articles (or most of) because not all sites/newspapers/etc freely allow redistribution of entire works like that. It's easier to just limit the amount you post from the article, so as to fall under fair use guidelines. I forget what the exact restriction is - maybe like max of 20% of the article or something. Most new threads I start are news articles, and I tend to take a few paragraphs that I feel best summarize what the article is about.

Also, having a post reported isn't always bad / a person trying to get you in trouble or anything like that. Sometimes it's just to have a thread merged with something else, or moved to another board, or whatever.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You do realize that shrieking "MUH MISOGYNY" isn't a convincing strategy, right?  President Obama took the high road in 2008 by rarely invoking race and racism into the mix.  Maybe a woman nominee (whoever she may be) should take a similar, wise road.

Nobody said it's a good political strategy. But the truth often isn't.

A campaign that struggles to explain why their candidate is running, and seriously considers making "it's her turn" as a slogan deserves to lose.

[Beet]

You do realize that shrieking "MUH MISOGYNY" isn't a convincing strategy, right?  President Obama took the high road in 2008 by rarely invoking race and racism into the mix.  Maybe a woman nominee (whoever she may be) should take a similar, wise road.

Hillary hardly mentioned sexism in the 2008 primaries and lost. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[QAnonKelly]

I like both Gillibrand and Klobuchar a lot but idk if the latter has that umph too run on the top of the ticket. She's probably too nice. I'd think Klobuchar would be a better VP candidate

[Landslide Lyndon]

You do realize that shrieking "MUH MISOGYNY" isn't a convincing strategy, right?  President Obama took the high road in 2008 by rarely invoking race and racism into the mix.  Maybe a woman nominee (whoever she may be) should take a similar, wise road.

Hillary hardly mentioned sexism in the 2008 primaries and lost. It's damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Her harshest critics proved to be a bunch of sexual predators. But sure, misogyny played no part in the fact that her coverage was extremely negative.