AL-Fox News: DOUG +8
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #100 on: November 17, 2017, 12:37:08 PM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

I'm a counterexample to this.  I was raised as a Rockefeller Republican, but haven't identified as R in quite a few years, although I've still voted for some even in recent years.  Most of that is due to the party moving further and further from the center; but I do think I was more conservative as a young man than now.
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« Reply #101 on: November 17, 2017, 01:22:51 PM »

@ NovaGreen - your post is great. Thank you for the excellent dive into granular detail.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #102 on: November 17, 2017, 03:18:36 PM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

I'm a counterexample to this.  I was raised as a Rockefeller Republican, but haven't identified as R in quite a few years, although I've still voted for some even in recent years.  Most of that is due to the party moving further and further from the center; but I do think I was more conservative as a young man than now.

Yeah same here
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #103 on: November 17, 2017, 10:51:52 PM »

@ NovaGreen - your post is great. Thank you for the excellent dive into granular detail.

Much appreciated Jerome, since I spend way too many hours a week pursuing a hobby that I have had on and off for about 30 years (Precinct level data crunching).

Even after I get off my 12 hour shift on the Hi-Tech assembly line, I still pull and crunch numbers, before I need to crash and go back on the line early the next day....

Hey--- if I'm stuck with a ton of student loan debt, might as well contribute to the overall scientific body of knowledge courtesy of Uncle Sam, despite not pursuing the route of Academia and instead moving into the Private Sector from Working-Class Family roots... Smiley

DAVE IS THE MAN, for allowing all of us to contribute to what is arguably one of the best crowd-sourcing political Forums on the entire World Wide Web!!!!   (Ok--- bit of hyperbole there, but really the only reason that I registered to post on Atlas versus lurker mode some 10 years back, was because of that very reason.)

Now, why did the Fox News Poll get pulled?  Not sure if it is just my browser, but it appears that the original link is broken....

Anyone else experienced similar issues since Republican 'Bama Governor just endorsed Moore a few hours ago?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #104 on: November 17, 2017, 11:22:15 PM »

Now, why did the Fox News Poll get pulled?  Not sure if it is just my browser, but it appears that the original link is broken....

Fixed.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #105 on: November 18, 2017, 08:37:53 PM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

Well lets say they do. The problem for the Republican is not even that Southern Whites will vote Democratic. it is that they won't vote Republican Enough for the Republicans to keep a tight hold on these deep south states. For instance, Republicans cannot go below say 78% Republican among MS Whites. Below that they start getting into dicey territory.

So indeed these 50-50 whites may become 60-40 Republican when they are older. The problem there is, MS whites going 60-40 Republican, means the state is voting as Democratic as Washington State and that is assuming Black turnout is on the lower range in the low 30's.

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #106 on: November 18, 2017, 08:53:33 PM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

Keep in mind that neither party is going to content itself to being a permanent minority. Even during the 20 year drought in the Depression and World War II, Republicans eventually found a winning strategy by running Ike.

As we saw in 2016, the victory typically follows the path of least resistance demographically. In 2008, Obama won VA and CO by more than he won OH and FL, making them both more Democratic then the decisive swing states in 2004/2000, during which they had been Republican leaning states, both of them.

In 2016, Trump lost even more ground in VA and CO, but won OH and FL, and flipped WI, MI and PA.

So the Midwest states like WI, MI and PA very likely do flip back in a prospective 2020 GOP loss scenario, but only narrowly so (reflective of the trends), while states trending Democratic and with demographic factors more certainly in their favor swing even more, like say GA, NC, AZ, while MS and TX also display strong Dem trends but remain Republican.

The rust belt is whiter by and large.  Also since these states are not growing as fast, they face less demographic change compared to the sunbelt. Therefore Republicans can survive at much lower percentages of the white vote and if minority votes are required, far fewer will be required. Also, I would note that if any place is going to be more open to slightly higher levels of African-American vote for the Republicans, it is Ohio and PA, and not Mississippi and Alabama for obvious reasons.


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« Reply #107 on: November 19, 2017, 03:21:27 AM »

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Even while he trails overall by 8.

Deplorable!

You can never be satisfied, can you?!

In this instance he's right
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #108 on: November 19, 2017, 09:22:55 AM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

Keep in mind that neither party is going to content itself to being a permanent minority. Even during the 20 year drought in the Depression and World War II, Republicans eventually found a winning strategy by running Ike.

As we saw in 2016, the victory typically follows the path of least resistance demographically. In 2008, Obama won VA and CO by more than he won OH and FL, making them both more Democratic then the decisive swing states in 2004/2000, during which they had been Republican leaning states, both of them.

In 2016, Trump lost even more ground in VA and CO, but won OH and FL, and flipped WI, MI and PA.

So the Midwest states like WI, MI and PA very likely do flip back in a prospective 2020 GOP loss scenario, but only narrowly so (reflective of the trends), while states trending Democratic and with demographic factors more certainly in their favor swing even more, like say GA, NC, AZ, while MS and TX also display strong Dem trends but remain Republican.

The rust belt is whiter by and large.  Also since these states are not growing as fast, they face less demographic change compared to the sunbelt. Therefore Republicans can survive at much lower percentages of the white vote and if minority votes are required, far fewer will be required. Also, I would note that if any place is going to be more open to slightly higher levels of African-American vote for the Republicans, it is Ohio and PA, and not Mississippi and Alabama for obvious reasons.




Indeed. This is why I'm quite puzzled as to why Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona aren't up very high on most people's lists of states most likely to flip from R-->D in 2020. I'd even argue that the pieces are definitely there for Democrats in those states (well, in Georgia's case, only in presidential years, since the D coalition there is so reliant on the black vote). If the Virginia elections taught me anything, it's to expect a continuation of the D trend in the diverse suburbs while merely a small reversion to the mean in rural/exurban areas. In other words, Northam and Murphy held onto Clinton's gains in the suburbs and then some, while holding either flat or just slightly improving on her showings in red areas. If that happens in 2020 on the national level, Georgia's definitely in play.
If Dems want to truly flip former red states like NC, GA, AZ in 2020 or 2024, and TX in 2024 or 2028, they're going to have to stop relying so much on minority votes.  They need to start making inroads with whites again, especially if a minority isn't on the Dem ticket (whether Prez or VP).
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #109 on: November 19, 2017, 09:24:59 AM »

It's not really possible to make "inroads with whites" while muh culture war rages.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #110 on: November 19, 2017, 12:55:45 PM »

It's not really possible to make "inroads with whites" while muh culture war rages.
The crosstabs of this poll say otherwise. Jones is getting ~22% more of the white vote than Clinton did.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #111 on: November 19, 2017, 02:18:37 PM »

It's not really possible to make "inroads with whites" while muh culture war rages.
The crosstabs of this poll say otherwise. Jones is getting ~22% more of the white vote than Clinton did.

Because his opponent is a pedophile. And even then it may not hold.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #112 on: November 19, 2017, 08:07:37 PM »

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

Keep in mind that neither party is going to content itself to being a permanent minority. Even during the 20 year drought in the Depression and World War II, Republicans eventually found a winning strategy by running Ike.

As we saw in 2016, the victory typically follows the path of least resistance demographically. In 2008, Obama won VA and CO by more than he won OH and FL, making them both more Democratic then the decisive swing states in 2004/2000, during which they had been Republican leaning states, both of them.

In 2016, Trump lost even more ground in VA and CO, but won OH and FL, and flipped WI, MI and PA.

So the Midwest states like WI, MI and PA very likely do flip back in a prospective 2020 GOP loss scenario, but only narrowly so (reflective of the trends), while states trending Democratic and with demographic factors more certainly in their favor swing even more, like say GA, NC, AZ, while MS and TX also display strong Dem trends but remain Republican.

The rust belt is whiter by and large.  Also since these states are not growing as fast, they face less demographic change compared to the sunbelt. Therefore Republicans can survive at much lower percentages of the white vote and if minority votes are required, far fewer will be required. Also, I would note that if any place is going to be more open to slightly higher levels of African-American vote for the Republicans, it is Ohio and PA, and not Mississippi and Alabama for obvious reasons.




Indeed. This is why I'm quite puzzled as to why Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona aren't up very high on most people's lists of states most likely to flip from R-->D in 2020. I'd even argue that the pieces are definitely there for Democrats in those states (well, in Georgia's case, only in presidential years, since the D coalition there is so reliant on the black vote). If the Virginia elections taught me anything, it's to expect a continuation of the D trend in the diverse suburbs while merely a small reversion to the mean in rural/exurban areas. In other words, Northam and Murphy held onto Clinton's gains in the suburbs and then some, while holding either flat or just slightly improving on her showings in red areas. If that happens in 2020 on the national level, Georgia's definitely in play.
If Dems want to truly flip former red states like NC, GA, AZ in 2020 or 2024, and TX in 2024 or 2028, they're going to have to stop relying so much on minority votes.  They need to start making inroads with whites again, especially if a minority isn't on the Dem ticket (whether Prez or VP).


It's not just that demographics could flip those states (though it certainly helps)--it's that Republicans aren't winning 85%+ of the white vote in states like GA, TX and NC anymore. Hillary did noticeably better among whites in those states than other Democratic Presidential candidates have done, and that is despite there being lower black turnout in those states relative to 2008 and 2012. I don't think it's really that likely that whites in Georgia and Texas will go back to voting 85% Republican again, given those two states' high transplant rates and college-educated whites (the younger ones at least) noticeably skewing Democratic.

think of Virginia. Democrats didn't start winning there consistently because "MUH minority coalition". They have won because the white vote, particularly in metro areas, has gotten much more Democratic-leaning.

Minorities+College Educated Whites=Winning long term coalition. In ten years, the Trump coalition strategy will already leave huge swaths of the country completely unwinnable for the Republicans as liberal Millenials begin supplanting the more evenly split Baby Boomers as the largest voting cohort.
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