AL-Fox News: DOUG +8

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Among voters under age 45, Jones has a 31-point lead, 61 percent to 30 percent. Jones wins 91 percent of Democratic voters, while Moore is at 78 percent among Republicans. Only 3 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Moore, but about 13 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Jones. Jones has a wide advantage among women, 58 percent to 32 percent. Moore has only a slight edge with voters 45 and older, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Moore has a 19-point lead among white voters, 56 percent to 37 percent. Jones is competitive among white voters with a college degree — Moore leads by just 4 points among them

THE SOLID DEM SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN, Mr. Shadows!

If this was Mississippi, Jones would be almost at 60% with these numbers. Biggest variable would be Black turnout to determine whether it is 55% or 60%.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

Well lets say they do. The problem for the Republican is not even that Southern Whites will vote Democratic. it is that they won't vote Republican Enough for the Republicans to keep a tight hold on these deep south states. For instance, Republicans cannot go below say 78% Republican among MS Whites. Below that they start getting into dicey territory.

So indeed these 50-50 whites may become 60-40 Republican when they are older. The problem there is, MS whites going 60-40 Republican, means the state is voting as Democratic as Washington State and that is assuming Black turnout is on the lower range in the low 30's.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

Keep in mind that neither party is going to content itself to being a permanent minority. Even during the 20 year drought in the Depression and World War II, Republicans eventually found a winning strategy by running Ike.

As we saw in 2016, the victory typically follows the path of least resistance demographically. In 2008, Obama won VA and CO by more than he won OH and FL, making them both more Democratic then the decisive swing states in 2004/2000, during which they had been Republican leaning states, both of them.

In 2016, Trump lost even more ground in VA and CO, but won OH and FL, and flipped WI, MI and PA.

So the Midwest states like WI, MI and PA very likely do flip back in a prospective 2020 GOP loss scenario, but only narrowly so (reflective of the trends), while states trending Democratic and with demographic factors more certainly in their favor swing even more, like say GA, NC, AZ, while MS and TX also display strong Dem trends but remain Republican.

The rust belt is whiter by and large.  Also since these states are not growing as fast, they face less demographic change compared to the sunbelt. Therefore Republicans can survive at much lower percentages of the white vote and if minority votes are required, far fewer will be required. Also, I would note that if any place is going to be more open to slightly higher levels of African-American vote for the Republicans, it is Ohio and PA, and not Mississippi and Alabama for obvious reasons.