D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.
Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.
There is no question that Southern White University students voted heavily Democratic in 2016, based upon some of the research that I have been performing over the past few months...
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.150Here are the charts of results by City for Division I-A Football Communities in America ( A few need updating: Results from Annapolis were incorrect, Louisville, and Mobile need to be updated...
Although, I haven't yet gone back yet and run the numbers for many of the University precincts, since my original intention was to run a "simple project" of crunching precinct numbers for municipalities rather than individual precinct level analysis, later on I started flagging and including these in my data, although it wasn't the original intention of the project.
I do intend and going back and running these numbers for "Dorm" vs "Off-Campus overwhelmingly 18-29 yrs precincts), since I still have detailed Excel precinct spreadsheets for many of these counties on my computer.
Still, it appears that based upon precinct level data, HRC won the most heavily University precinct in
Jonesboro, Arkansas (50- 43 D); Durham (
Duke University EV precinct)- (87-9 D);
LSU dorm precincts (Baton Rouge, LA)- (82-13 D),
LSU "Off-Campus "Student Ghetto (57-31 D),
University of Louisiana- Monroe "dorm vote" (68-28 D),
University of Louisiana- Lafayette "student precincts (3:1 Democrat), Georgia Southern University (Statesboro, GA) "student precinct (59-34 D), Florida State University "Dorm Vote" (60-34 D), FSU "Off Campus Vote"- 2:1 Dem; University of Miami student precincts- (63-33 D); Florida State University "Dorm Vote" (65-31 D), FSU- Off Campus (58-38 D); Tennessee State University (Murfreesboro MTSU Campus) (58-42 D); Vanderbilt University Dorm and Off-Campus (84-14 D); University of South Alabama (Mobile)--- "Dorm Vote" (69-29 D), "Off Campus Vote"- (85-14 D).
Now, don't take my word as Gospel, however the precinct level results are true and correct, and easily fact-checked....
Extreme Republican has also posted data which appears to corroborate the data in terms of Southern White University voters in Tennessee, and also other data where he suggests that Trump won the "Dorm Vote" in Tuscaloosa and Auburn (Although I am skeptical about both considering these are heavily Uni downs, where the former City voted Democratic by +14%, and the latter City 'Pub by + 12%.
Obviously the Millennial vote is a lot more than just a few relatively elite White/Anglo dominated Southern Universities in Alabama (And much of the South at large), and I have also pulled numbers from various historically African-American Colleges and Universities, as well as Community Colleges, etc, which is actually where the vast majority of working and middle-class Millennials actually attend college, to both save bucks on University credits before transferring to a State school, get a two year Voc-Ed degree, etc....
Now , let's say that extreme Republicans precinct numbers for University of Alabama and Auburn University precincts are correct for 2016 ....
What does that say about the current state of the Alabama Republican race, considering the overwhelmingly Upper-Middle Class White Alabama student body of these Universities, and in general the same voting block in other Southern Universities?
Let's say they narrowly voted for Trump, as opposed to only 15% of 'Bama Whites that voted HRC?
What does that mean in terms of the various swings we might be seeing in the exclusively White 'Burbs and Exurbs of Birmingham, Huntsville, Mobile, etc....
