AL-Fox News: DOUG +8

[libertpaulian]

So, in order to win, is it safe to say that Jones needs about 25-30% of the evangelical vote?

[libertpaulian]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

Keep in mind that neither party is going to content itself to being a permanent minority. Even during the 20 year drought in the Depression and World War II, Republicans eventually found a winning strategy by running Ike.

As we saw in 2016, the victory typically follows the path of least resistance demographically. In 2008, Obama won VA and CO by more than he won OH and FL, making them both more Democratic then the decisive swing states in 2004/2000, during which they had been Republican leaning states, both of them.

In 2016, Trump lost even more ground in VA and CO, but won OH and FL, and flipped WI, MI and PA.

So the Midwest states like WI, MI and PA very likely do flip back in a prospective 2020 GOP loss scenario, but only narrowly so (reflective of the trends), while states trending Democratic and with demographic factors more certainly in their favor swing even more, like say GA, NC, AZ, while MS and TX also display strong Dem trends but remain Republican.

The rust belt is whiter by and large.  Also since these states are not growing as fast, they face less demographic change compared to the sunbelt. Therefore Republicans can survive at much lower percentages of the white vote and if minority votes are required, far fewer will be required. Also, I would note that if any place is going to be more open to slightly higher levels of African-American vote for the Republicans, it is Ohio and PA, and not Mississippi and Alabama for obvious reasons.

Indeed. This is why I'm quite puzzled as to why Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona aren't up very high on most people's lists of states most likely to flip from R-->D in 2020. I'd even argue that the pieces are definitely there for Democrats in those states (well, in Georgia's case, only in presidential years, since the D coalition there is so reliant on the black vote). If the Virginia elections taught me anything, it's to expect a continuation of the D trend in the diverse suburbs while merely a small reversion to the mean in rural/exurban areas. In other words, Northam and Murphy held onto Clinton's gains in the suburbs and then some, while holding either flat or just slightly improving on her showings in red areas. If that happens in 2020 on the national level, Georgia's definitely in play.

If Dems want to truly flip former red states like NC, GA, AZ in 2020 or 2024, and TX in 2024 or 2028, they're going to have to stop relying so much on minority votes.  They need to start making inroads with whites again, especially if a minority isn't on the Dem ticket (whether Prez or VP).