2018 Senate Predictions & Analysis

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Here's my 2nd to last set of predictions (with percentages). Candidates that round to 3% or more are included.

Arizona
Sinema (D)^ - 49
McSally (R) - 47
Green (G) - 3

California
Feinstein (D) - 57
De Leon (D) - 43

Connecticut
Murphy (D) - 62
Corey (R) - 36

Delaware
Carper (D) - 60
Arlett (R) - 38

Florida
Nelson (D) - 51
Scott (R) - 49

Hawaii
Hirono (D) - 69
Curtis (R) - 29

Indiana
Donnelly (D) - 49
Braun (R) - 48
Brenton (L) - 4

Maine
King (I) - 53
Brakey (R) - 39
Ringelstein (D) - 8

Maryland
Cardin (D) - 72
Campbell (R) - 21
Simon (I) - 7

Massachusetts
Warren (D) - 57
Diehl (R) - 38
Ayyadurai (I) - 5

Michigan
Stabenow (D) - 56
James (R) - 41

Minnesota
Klobuchar (D) - 58
Newberger (R) - 38

Minnesota-S
Smith (D) - 52
Housely (R) - 46

Mississippi
Wicker (R) - 59
Baria (D) - 39

Mississippi-S
Espy (D) - 40
Hyde-Smith (R) - 37
McDaniel (R) - 20
Bartee (D) - 3

Missouri
McCaskill (D) - 49
Hawley (R) - 46
O'Dear (I) - 3

Montana
Tester (D) - 49
Rosendale (R) - 48
Breckenridge (L) - 3

Nebraska
Fischer (R) - 64
Raybould (D) - 34

Nevada
Heller (R) - 45
Rosen (D) - 43
Hagan (L) - 4
None of these Candidates - 4

New Jersey
Menendez (D) - 55
Hugin (R) - 42

New Mexico
Heinrich (D) - 49
Rich (R) - 31
Johnson (L) - 20

New York
Gillibrand (D) - 63
Farley (R) - 37

North Dakota
Cramer (R)^ - 53
Heitkamp (D) - 47

Ohio
Brown (D) - 54
Renacci (R) - 46

Pennsylvania
Wolf (D) - 60
Wagner (R) - 39

Rhode Island
Whitehouse (D) - 59
Flanders (R) - 40

Tennessee
Blackburn (R) - 51
Bredesen (D) - 48

Texas
Cruz (R) - 50
O'Rourke (D) - 48

Utah
Romney (R) - 62
Wilson (D) - 30
Bowden (L) - 3

Vermont
Sanders (I) - 78
Zupan (R) - 19

Virginia
Kaine (D) - 59
Stewart (R) - 38
Waters (L) - 4

Washington
Cantwell (D) - 60
Hutchinson (R) - 40

West Virginia
Manchin (D) - 48
Morrissey (R) - 46
Hollen (L) - 5

Wisconsin
Baldwin (D) - 56
Vukmir (R) - 44

Wyoming
Barrasso (R) - 57
Trauner (D) - 42

North Dakota and Arizona flip, Senate stays 51-49

[pops]

I, too, only got Arizona and Florida wrong. I knew my Arizona bet was a long one but regret not calling Florida right.

[pops]

Okay you guys, I dug through all the predictions. Several people got the seat change (R +2) correct, and most of those people got Arizona and Florida wrong but every other state right. 11 people made up the maps with the exact winners, the earliest of these 11 maps was apparently made on May 17th. Out of 11 of them, none were Democrats. None of these people got the predictions right in every state, with only two predicting that nobody would get 50% in West Virginia, and both of those people predicted that no one would get 50% in Florida (come on guys, there were two people on the ballot). I didn't use any other litmus test besides those two states for the percentages, so I don't know who was the most accurate overall. Here are all the perfect predictions, listed from oldest to newest

May 17th (Weather243): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=701
July 1st (wxtransit): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=915
July 11th (TheLostDutchman): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=975
July 16th (terp40hitch): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1011
August 6th (RichardBennett): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1150
August 9th (Yellowhammer): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1165
September 5th (anna0kear): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1346
October 1st (HangingChad): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1616
October 26th (Lakigigar): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2053
November 2nd (cmbeattie): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2190
November 5th (ASV): https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2018/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2370

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I didn't know there were only two people on the ballot in Florida, and i thought it was going to be a very / extremely close election, so i thought that it was going to be obvious that no-one would hit 50%... I thought it was normal that every senatorial election would have had third parties in them.

I made more mistakes though in voting percentages so i certainly didn't win. I wish i had paid more attention to exact percentages... . But apparently many made the same mistakes, but having Maryland wrong will hurt me... I hope i'll make up for it by having Braun over 50%.

Florida was going to have a Libertarian in both races, but they both dropped out to speak out against the Florida Libertarian Party (as someone who’s had to work with them before, I don’t blame them). One of those two later revealed that he had developed heart problems based on the stress of campaigning. And the really sad part is the Senate candidate was a janitor who was campaigning to “clean up DC”, so he might’ve done well just off of humor