Final Prediction Time!
AZ: 49-47 Sinema
FL: 51-48 Nelson
MO: 49-47 Hawley
IN: 47-47 Braun
MT: 50-46 Tester
NV: 50-45 Rosen
ND: 54-46 Cramer
TN: 53-45 Blackburn
TX: 52-46 Cruz
WV: 53-44 Manchin (this I think has biggest upset potential)
Other less competitive races...
MI: 54-44 Stabenow
MN-S: 52-45 Smith
NJ: 53-43 Menendez
NM: 53-34-12 Henrich (Johnson in last)
OH: 54-46 Brown
PA: 55-44 Casey
VA: 57-41 Kaine
WI: 55-45 Baldwin
All others are beyond safe.
In Mississippi special, I expect Espy to finish narrowly in front of Hyde-Smith 40-38-20, while Hyde-Smith wins by 10-15 (57-43 is my prediction) in the runoff. I expect it to be very similar to Louisiana '14.
In my bold prediction this cycle, establishment Democrats get the biggest scare in California where Feinstein wins only 52-48 against de Leon.
Grading my predictions in terms of bias.
AZ: D+1 (so far)
FL: D+3
MO: D+4
IN: D+6
MT: D+1
NV: Boo-yah
ND: D+3
TN: D+3
TX: R+3
WV: D+6 (I did sense something, but I didn't predict a close race, damn)
MI: D+4
MN: R+4
NJ: R+1
NM: R+4 (underestimated Johnson by 3)
OH: D+2
PA: R+2
VA: Boo-yah
WI: R+1
MS-S: Not bad so far... (Overestimated McDaniel and underestimated Hyde-Smith by about 3 points)
CA: Looks like I'll be about 6 points off on my bold prediction, but still it should've been clear that Feinstein isn't very popular.
My overall average is slightly overestimating Democrats by 2-3 points. Better than my 2016 predictions for sure but still not factoring in the fundamentals of each race enough and still relying too much on polls, even though I tried to factor that in minimally this year. Still pretty decent all things considered.
