Most impressive loss? (user search)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Most impressive loss? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which loss was most impressive?
#1
Clinton losing TX by 3.5%, 1992
 
#2
Bush losing CA by 10%, 2004
 
#3
Obama losing MT by 2.3%, 2008
 
#4
Trump losing ME by 3%, 2016
 
#5
Trump losing MN by 1.5%, 2016
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: Most impressive loss?  (Read 1148 times)
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Jr. Member
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Posts: 532


« on: November 15, 2017, 08:54:30 PM »

I picked Obama in MT. MN and ME were naturally going to trend R. Trump only accelerated it.

Clinton came close in Texas but it's worth keeping in mind that it had very low turnout relative to the country as whole, suggesting Cruz supporters didn't all show up in November. Additionally, pro-Clinton groups spent money there. Trump focused on a narrower array of states, trusting that red states would go his way without spending or special attention from him.

Bush in California was certainly a good showing for a republican, but it was still a 10 point loss in a state that had been competitive not that long ago.
Incidentally, the much referenced "Bush won 44% of Hispanics" figure has been discredited repeatedly. Basic intuition, private polling, and county level data all contradict it badly. Articles debunking it from the left and right: https://www.alternet.org/story/20606/44_percent_of_hispanics_voted_for_bush
http://www.vdare.com/articles/bush-didnt-win-44-of-hispanic-vote-the-smoking-exit-poll
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