Why is Minnesota so impressive? It's a 88% white state, has a decent amount of rural areas, and is the most welloff state when you address for cost of living. It's bound to go republican any day now imo.
I went with California in 2004 because Bush got a ton of hispanic voters that no other republican has gotten.
It's impressive because it hasn't gone Republican since 1972 and it being this close when it hasn't been since the Bush era caught many by surprise. Though I must stress
1. Democrats base in Minnesota is still a higher then average white vote and gave them a majority as recently as 2008. 2012 was divided and I don't know who won in the end. White voters have a long history in the state supporting progressive and populist candidates and as long as the democrat support those things then they will probably have a higher then average white vote.
2. It may be a rural state but the rural areas are more democratic then average. 2016 may not be a good example due to the Trump effect but Obama 2008/12 won dozens of rural county's in the northern Iron range and southern Drift area. Thus it leads such a rural state to consistently vote Democrat since 1972 in combination with its Minneapolis base. 2016 may of shown a dramatic decrease in the democratic margins in these rural county's but 1 election is not a trend. We will have too see where this takes us
3. Well a reason for surprise is that it has been a well off state for a while now and still hasn't voted republican. I do agree that as more business oriented interests enter the state increase its wealth combined with the continued collapse of democrat supporting labor unions and margins in the rural areas that then it will start voting republican but many didn't expect it to be so sudden.
Also I do agree with California. I'm shocked Bush got up to and more then 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 and also shocked at how close relatively speaking he made California.
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