Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Hindsight was 2020]

Someone is making fake robocalls in Alabama claiming to be a WaPo reporter seeking damaging info on Moore for money.  Details here

Named "Bernie Bernstein," just a little too on the nose I think

Jooooooooooooooooossssssssss

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The RNC has officially ditched Moore.

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/930567785067024395

[Devout Centrist]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

You completely missed my point. Hillary spent miniscule amounts of time and money on Texas. It wasn't even a target. Now, there's a durable, albeit rather small, chance that Doug Jones can win and you're comparing this situation, in which a radical from the incumbent party is embroiled in a sexual abuse scandal, to Hillary winning Texas. Hm.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, it's almost like this forum is bad at analysis. Wonder who that reminds me of. Here, on the other hand, is what a good pessimistic take looks like:

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

Anyway, I haven't seen much evidence of massive movement in aggregate polling where it counts, which is Jones' percentage of the vote. He was basically hovering between 42-44% prior to this; even if you include the garbage 1-day polls and polls from questionable pollsters (pretty much all we have), the past 7 or so polls put him at an average of 44%.

Moore's percentages have dropped; Jones have stayed the same. This is the classic recipe of a Southern election where supposedly-principled Republicans temporarily jump ship before flocking back by Election Day, along with all of the "independents" and "undecideds". If Jones isn't sitting at 50% in aggregate polling or ahead by 4-5 points consistently, he isn't going to win.

[Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon]

Based on the internal polling pre-scandal, rating change is in order, again:

AL SEN: LEAN R --> TOSS-UP

Looking forward to an exciting month as this race concludes.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Based on the internal polling pre-scandal, rating change is in order, again:

AL SEN: LEAN R --> TOSS-UP

Looking forward to an exciting month as this race concludes.

Come on, this race is clearly TITANIUM R, just ask IceSpear.

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

I dunno, dude, there's nothing wrong with being excited about Dems having a shot at a senatorial seat from Alabama for the first time in over twenty years. Moore is still probably the favorite at this point, but who cares? Do you go to football games where your team is the underdog and mope for the entire game about how pointless it is?

Getting excited for a win when you're probably going to lose (or in this case, almost certainly going to lose) leads to Ossoff level meltdowns. I didn't really pay too much attention to that race, but figured Handel would win by a few points. It's a lot easier to view things from a clear and unbiased perspective when you're not emotionally invested.

I don't know what you mean by "who cares"? This entire forum is built upon election data and predictions. Obviously to some extent we all care. And you just said people were "excited" by the false hope of a Jones victory.

A better analogy would be telling my friend to stop wasting his money playing the lottery every day, rather than filling him with false hope and BS optimism about how "if you just keep trying, I'm sure you'll be rich someday! : o)"

That's a horrible analogy, unless you're actually putting money on this race. Does it cost anything to support Jones and hope he wins?

And it's not a binary option between resigning yourself to defeat and melting down if your side doesn't win - it's totally fine and normal to get swept up in the excitement while being able to accept a loss if it happens.

I'm not putting money down with my friend in that analogy either. I'm reminding him to be realistic, just as I'm doing here. Also, I actually do have some money on Moore with PredictIt.

I agree with that in principle. I was excited for Northam's probable victory even though I knew he could lose, and same for Hillary's (though obviously that one went the other way.) But this is Alabama and we're an elections forum. We should try to stay somewhat within the confines of reality considering this is a website based on data. Otherwise you jump down the rabbit hole of fantasizing about how Dems are going to win TX-13 in a landslide because if you dare suggest otherwise, you're a "concern troll" rooting against "your team."

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

You completely missed my point. Hillary spent miniscule amounts of time and money on Texas. It wasn't even a target. Now, there's a durable, albeit rather small, chance that Doug Jones can win and you're comparing this situation, in which a radical from the incumbent party is embroiled in a sexual abuse scandal, to Hillary winning Texas. Hm.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow, it's almost like this forum is bad at analysis. Wonder who that reminds me of. Here, on the other hand, is what a good pessimistic take looks like:

Why are so many people acting as if Jones has this in the bag? Everybody is thinking about their own decency and forgetting about Alabama's.

Anyway, I haven't seen much evidence of massive movement in aggregate polling where it counts, which is Jones' percentage of the vote. He was basically hovering between 42-44% prior to this; even if you include the garbage 1-day polls and polls from questionable pollsters (pretty much all we have), the past 7 or so polls put him at an average of 44%.

Moore's percentages have dropped; Jones have stayed the same. This is the classic recipe of a Southern election where supposedly-principled Republicans temporarily jump ship before flocking back by Election Day, along with all of the "independents" and "undecideds". If Jones isn't sitting at 50% in aggregate polling or ahead by 4-5 points consistently, he isn't going to win.

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

[Jeppe]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[Devout Centrist]

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

The fact you crib Adam's analysis and turn it into some bargain bin crap is not at issue here.

[IceSpear]

Uh...I've said his first line almost verbatim countless times. In fact, I was one of the first to say it when this story first broke. I've also said that same "undecideds" theory countless times. Pay better attention.

The fact you crib Adam's analysis and turn it into some bargain bin crap is not at issue here.

Your reading comprehension needs work. Kind of hard to "steal" his analysis when I reacted to it first.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276867.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262651.925

[McGovernForPrez]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

Yeah it's just miserable to hear the same thing over and over again without any real argument besides "Muh Alabama".

[IceSpear]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

Yeah it's just miserable to hear the same thing over and over again without any real argument besides "Muh Alabama".

I mean, the real issue is that I'm disrupting the circlejerk. You guys have no problem with "Sen-elect Jones <333333" spam.

Also, Moore up 6 in the new poll. #Vindication

[Doimper]

I think IceSpear wants Moore to win for whatever bizarre reason.

I wanted Hillary to win Texas, but I knew she wouldn't.

Do I really need to tell you why these situations aren't analogous

You're right. Hillary probably had a better chance at winning Texas than Jones does of beating Moore.

And I don't know if you're implying that was a fringe thought or not, but Hillary winning Texas was a constant circlejerk here in 2016, particularly during her polling bounces. I was arguing against it all the time and was called a "concern troll" for it. Sound familiar? In fact, I was probably arguing about it with some of the same people that are now arguing Jones is going to win...also, did Atlas not overwhelmingly think Ossoff and Quist were going to win too?

I dunno, dude, there's nothing wrong with being excited about Dems having a shot at a senatorial seat from Alabama for the first time in over twenty years. Moore is still probably the favorite at this point, but who cares? Do you go to football games where your team is the underdog and mope for the entire game about how pointless it is?

Getting excited for a win when you're probably going to lose (or in this case, almost certainly going to lose) leads to Ossoff level meltdowns. I didn't really pay too much attention to that race, but figured Handel would win by a few points. It's a lot easier to view things from a clear and unbiased perspective when you're not emotionally invested.

I don't know what you mean by "who cares"? This entire forum is built upon election data and predictions. Obviously to some extent we all care. And you just said people were "excited" by the false hope of a Jones victory.

A better analogy would be telling my friend to stop wasting his money playing the lottery every day, rather than filling him with false hope and BS optimism about how "if you just keep trying, I'm sure you'll be rich someday! : o)"

That's a horrible analogy, unless you're actually putting money on this race. Does it cost anything to support Jones and hope he wins?

And it's not a binary option between resigning yourself to defeat and melting down if your side doesn't win - it's totally fine and normal to get swept up in the excitement while being able to accept a loss if it happens.

We should try to stay somewhat within the confines of reality considering this is a website based on data.

I guess that's where we differ - since Jones is the beneficiary of a perfect political hurricane, I think him winning is perfectly within the confines of reality, even if he's not favored. And a Democrat having a shot at winning a statewide race in Alabama is something to get excited about. Guess we'll find out in a month, huh?

[Ye We Can]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[GlobeSoc]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[Blackacre]

I think IceSpear should lay off the sheer amount of posts he makes about it. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s a bit annoying at this point. We get it, you don’t think the Democrats have a chance of winning. You don’t have to make 50 posts about it.

[Cactus Jack]

Actually, let's be honest: the forum would be better off if IceSpear just left. Has he contributed anything meaningful at all in the last month? Anything at all, beyond incessant bitching about West Virginia and Alabama?

[IceSpear]

Actually, let's be honest: the forum would be better off if IceSpear just left. Has he contributed anything meaningful at all in the last month? Anything at all, beyond incessant bitching about West Virginia and Alabama?

This just makes me want to stay even more.

Also, didn't Virginia tell you to stop making the topic about my thoughts of these two states?

[Doimper]

Actually, let's be honest: the forum would be better off if IceSpear just left. Has he contributed anything meaningful at all in the last month? Anything at all, beyond incessant bitching about West Virginia and Alabama?

He's a good poster when he's not trolling the sh-t out of everyone, but it's kind of annoying to see him constantly doing the same thing he used to lambast Tender Branson for doing in 2016.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

[Cactus Jack]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

Whether Moore wins or loses, IceSpear is always going to be an obnoxious twat. Put money on it.

[swf541]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

Whether Moore wins or loses, IceSpear is always going to be an obnoxious twat. Put money on it.

[IceSpear]

Icespear is annoying but if Moore still wins after all of this then is he really wrong?

Whether Moore wins or loses, IceSpear is always going to be an obnoxious twat. Put money on it.

Please stop making the topic your obsession with me. Are you trying to maintain your Alabama megathread post ratio of being 90% about me and 10% about the race itself? lol

Anyway, I can already see December 12th now...

"Wow, Alabama is a disgusting, depraved, morally bankrupt, pedophile supporting den of white trash hicks! IceSpear? Who's that?"

[Pericles]

Jones is the Democrat Scott Brown. The Democrats will win.