Day 6: Colorado

[minionofmidas]

On the other hand, 43% identified as suburban

Colorado does have some blue collar suburbs as well (not that Kerry did especially well in them) ya know.

Yeah, which is why the $50,000+ status marker is a lot more important.

I don't trust whatever CNN uses to identify whether the polling location is a suburb, city, whatever, either - they identified their Alaskan sample as 43% suburban, 57% rural!  That's either horrible sampling or very odd identification.

They probably consider Anchorage Metro Area, incl. Mat-Su and Kenai, to be a suburb of Seattle, and the remainder of the state as rural.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah,

Ah... tis good to know that someone else knows

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Maybe so, but bear in mind that Adams County (very blue collar) has a median HH income of $47,323

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I don't trust the demographic bits of exit polls period... even an otherwise fairly accurate exit poll can blow up on that sort of thing (case in point being the exit poll for the U.K election, which somehow managed to fail to spot that the election turned out to be the most class-polarised since 1974 (October)... despite getting the size of Labour's majority bang on).

[MissCatholic]

Dems have to be more competitive outside Denver and Boulder. They can achieve this if they appeal to the hispanics (28% of the pop i believe). I am sure if a moderate dem gets the nod then it will vote democrat.

it is imperative that the dems get a strong candidate in 2008 senate race.

[Alcon]

Yeah,

Ah... tis good to know that someone else knows

In truth, I had to look it up...I couldn't think of where they were.  I found mentions of them, but I still don't know where they are.

That would be very interesting information if you have it.

[jimrtex]

I don't trust whatever CNN uses to identify whether the polling location is a suburb, city, whatever, either - they identified their Alaskan sample as 43% suburban, 57% rural!  That's either horrible sampling or very odd identification.

Maybe they have some size of city threshold.  Anchorage is not that large.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In truth, I had to look it up...I couldn't think of where they were.  I found mentions of them, but I still don't know where they are.

That would be very interesting information if you have it.

Put simply, the northeastern suburbs of Denver (itself a pretty blue collar for a large city) are very blue collar (especially for a metro area) while the other suburbs tend to be very white collar. A lot of people employed in the construction industry for one thing.

[MaC]

Colorado will stay GOP on the national level-pending a lanslide of course.

Well, evidently this is not an "of course" matter, considering that you're the only one so far to say that Colorado will not be competitive in 2008.  Care to explain?

Well, the "of course" that I think Colorado will stay (at least fairly solid GOP) until the next landslide.  "Of course" means that nearly anything can happen on election night ex. 1984, ect...

[minionofmidas]

even an otherwise fairly accurate exit poll can blow up on that sort of thing (case in point being the exit poll for the U.K election, which somehow managed to fail to spot that the election turned out to be the most class-polarised since 1974 (October)... despite getting the size of Labour's majority bang on).

Ah, but is that numerically true if you do national averages? Obviously, the Tories gained slightly where there were most middle class people and kept losing where there were more working class people, but the reverse isn't true for Labour. For one thing, the LD gains are strongest in the North East of all places. For another thing, all those Respect votes are very much working class votes.
Ie, when you ignore some "disturbances" - countervailing trends - , the picture becomes clear and yes, what you say is true. But when you do a national average sum, you can't ignore these, and the picture becomes blurred.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but is that numerically true if you do national averages?

Should be

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Actually it is if you look in terms of raw votes rather than %'s

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Yeah but those were almost all middle class public sector workers rather than working class voters. Basically they polled their local election vote (less in some places; like Bishop Auckland or Newcastle*) in a general election for once.

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That does depend how working class is defined, but yeah they do fit into the Market Research DE group for the most part (largely the E group). Not that there were many Respect voters overall. 1% overall I think, but I could be wrong...

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Especially when you have a polling industry as gloriously incompetent as ours with a long track record of missing important trends in the electorate due to massive over-sampling of certain areas without that trend...
I don't know how they do it so consistantly... but I think it takes some skill.
For whatever reason they didn't pick up the collapse of Labour support amoung professional type voters (remember the exit poll only gave the LibDems one net gain (presumably Yardley). Bearing in mind the sort of voters who swung yellow, I think that's important...) and they underestimated Labour's working class vote; seeing as this was the case in pretty much all polls during the campaign, the pollsters models seem to have a major flaw in them.

*Putting Bishop Auckland before NUT does not in any way reflect petty parochialism on my part. Not at all. Honest.

[minionofmidas]

Putting Bishop Auckland before NUT does not in any way reflect petty parochialism on my part. Not at all. Honest.

Well it is a much more important place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Putting Bishop Auckland before NUT does not in any way reflect petty parochialism on my part. Not at all. Honest.

Well it is a much more important place.

[nclib]

Most of the Kerry counties in western Colorado are resort areas:
Routt: Steamboat
Eagle: Vail
Summit: Breckinridge, etc.
Pitkin: Aspen
Gunnison: Crest Butte.  Also Western State College
San Miguel: Telluride
La Plata: Durango

What is the reasoning for Dems doing so well in resort areas? Especially in Pitkin and San Miguel where Kerry got over 60% of the vote.

[Alcon]

Most of the Kerry counties in western Colorado are resort areas:
Routt: Steamboat
Eagle: Vail
Summit: Breckinridge, etc.
Pitkin: Aspen
Gunnison: Crest Butte.  Also Western State College
San Miguel: Telluride
La Plata: Durango

What is the reasoning for Dems doing so well in resort areas? Especially in Pitkin and San Miguel where Kerry got over 60% of the vote.

Service industry.

(It's not latte liberalism, for the most part, no matter what people say.)

[minionofmidas]

Most of the Kerry counties in western Colorado are resort areas:
Routt: Steamboat
Eagle: Vail
Summit: Breckinridge, etc.
Pitkin: Aspen
Gunnison: Crest Butte.  Also Western State College
San Miguel: Telluride
La Plata: Durango

What is the reasoning for Dems doing so well in resort areas? Especially in Pitkin and San Miguel where Kerry got over 60% of the vote.

Service industry.

(It's not latte liberalism, for the most part, no matter what people say.)

Large populations of young people on small incomes that didn't vote in 2000. In other words, same as college towns really.

[Aizen]

Colorado is one of the oddest trending states around and one that really just does not fit any model (no matter how much people on this site want it to).

After being heavily GOP during the 1970s, during the mid-1980's Colorado trended heavily Democrat, moving towards the mean as compared to national Presidential results (in 1988 and 1992, Colorado voted right at the national margin of victory for Bush 41 and Clinton) and electing a number of Democrat Senators, including the imitable Gary Hart and Ben Campbell.  Maybe Massachusetts Democrats do well in Colorado.  

Then, during the mid-1990s, Colorado shifted right back to its former GOP model during the 1970s and before, electing conservatives Bill Owens as Governor and Wayne Allard as Senator.  Campbell also switched parties.

In 1996, Dole performed nearly 10% better here than nationally and in 2000, Bush performed nearly 8% better here than nationally.  These compared very strongly to Reagan 1980/1984 (8% and 15%, respectively) and Ford 1976 (13%) and Nixon 1968/1972) (8% and 9%, respectively)

Now, in 2004, the state suddenly shifted back to its mid-80s/early 90s pattern, electing a Democrat Senator, bringing in a Democrat House and Senate (maybe, I forget) and voting just right above the national margin of victory for Bush).

What will 2006 bring?  Which Colorado will show up?  Who knows?

Looks like it was the Democrat Colorado who showed up in 2006 and it will be that way in 2008.