VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[swf541]

The rain has not 'f$&ked everything up', we don't know how things will turn out yet. We don't know who is showing up where, we have almost nothing from Trumpland either way, and unless I'm mistaken we don't have anything from Hampton Roads either. Neither side should panic, there are mixed signals all over the place.

There will probably be a rush at the end of the day - it's coming up on 4 PM, I mean, who even votes at 4 PM? I'll bet that either side still has a chance but that Northam has the definite edge, same as he has had for months.

[Kamala]

Just to be certain, polls close at 7 or at 6?

[BudgieForce]

Its like, light showers. Cold and rainy =/= hurricane.

[Oryxslayer]

Just to be certain, polls close at 7 or at 6?

7

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

So basically it makes Republican counties, more Republican by margin is what you are saying?

[GlobeSoc]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/927992774615617536

Fairfax county at 36.6% at 2pm.

Seems like the post 5 pm rush will make % turnout exceed 2013 by a decent amount

[MT Treasurer]

Oh, I firmly stand by it being gone in presidential elections, which was the original context of those very accurate claims.

This is a different story: I also have a recurring narrative about awful NoVA types and how they're custom-made to defect and elect somebody like Gillespie in situations like this.

Ah, I see. Totally agree with you that it's gone for Rs in federal races, I guess we'll find out soon enough if that's the case at the statewide level as well. I have a gut feeling that Ds will do better than expected in the HoD races, though.

[The Other Castro]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

His twitter handle is very accurate.

[swf541]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

Agree 100%. He went from somewhere like Northam +100K to Northam +65K to Northam +35K in three hours. He's laughable.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

Is the other Texas?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

Agree 100%. He went from somewhere like Northam +100K to Northam +65K to Northam +35K in three hours. He's laughable.

Yeah we have the same #'s and rural Trump areas did not start doing massively better in a few hours

[henster]

Obama should have did more than one rally and not one weeks from the election.

[Yank2133]

Virginia will vote R in 2020 when Cuomo is nominated by the dems tho

Nah, Cuomo will clear 60% in VA and will probably be only 1 of his 2 state wins

Is the other Texas?

New York.

And that is only because his opponent would be Donald Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

My goodness with the bed wetting.

[Adam Griffin]

Rain doesn't depress GOP vote share, and it's definitely debatable that it really depresses either side's turnout in the modern day whatsoever; older data suggests a 1-3% net drop in Dem vote. Nevertheless, if rain in heavily-GOP areas is in fact depressing turnout, then why wouldn't it depress the Dem vote in those areas by more than the GOP vote?

So basically it makes Republican counties, more Republican by margin is what you are saying?

That'd be a side-effect, yep.

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[BudgieForce]

Obama should have did more than one rally and not one weeks from the election.

Its way too early to be writing a post mortem for the Northam campaign dude.

[Matty]

Typical Atlas

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How did the two VA posters on here go from predicting a decent Northam win to "Omg! Gillespie will win because of a few drops of rain!"?

[IceSpear]

My goodness with the bed wetting.

Just wait until the first few hours when Gillespie is winning big, lol. Get the popcorn ready!

[henster]

Petersburg is heavily AA city turnout may not even match 2013 levels, this is a disaster.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

Agree 100%. He went from somewhere like Northam +100K to Northam +65K to Northam +35K in three hours. He's laughable.

orrrr your jumping to conclusions is laughable

[Oryxslayer]

Typical Atlas