Weight the likelihood of outcomes for Trump (Updated August 2018)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Revisiting this game in light of recent developments, and editing my original predictions.

Here are the rules: there are 8 possible outcomes of Trump's current term below.  You have $100 to spend.  You can allocate any amount between $0 and $100 to each outcome, but they must total exactly $100 (you have to allocate all of it).

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020.
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election.
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term.
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment.
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress.
8. Trump dies in office.

Here are mine, with reasoning:

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020.  $4 - As things stand now, he'd get clobbered by any Democrat not named Clinton (but there's a lot of time for things to change).  Down to $2.  Trump certainly isn't winning new voters and his opponents are energized.

2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election.  $25 - If he runs again, I think he'll fend off any primary challengers.  Up to $35.  If he runs again, he'll almost certainly win the primary.

3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.  $10 - See above.  Down to $2.  There simply don't look to be any credible GOP challengers.

4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.  $35 - He's clearly not enjoying the job.  This isn't likely to get any better by 2020.  Down to $25.  He's enjoying it more now, but he could decide to retire due to impeachment pressure.

5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term.  $5 - Trump doesn't seem like the type to quit, but I could see it happening if it looks like impeachment and removal is imminent.  Up to $10, as a consequence of impeachment becoming more likely.

6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment.  $1 - This seems very far-fetched.  No change.

7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress.  $10 - If the Democrats take the House next year then I think impeachment will follow, but 67 Senate votes to remove him would be a huge hurdle.  Up to $20.  It's still a big hurdle but seems more plausible now.

8. Trump dies in office.  $10 - Non-trivial likelihood.  He's an old man who's not in great physical shape and under stress that is likely to increase as time goes by.  Down to $5, because there's less time left for it to happen in.

[heatcharger]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $15
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $35
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $2
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $20
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $5
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $2
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $6
8. Trump dies in office. $15

Outcome 8 is an underrated possibility. Outcome 3, 6, and 7 require the Republican Party in some form to have a sense of morals, which is not worth betting significant money on.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1. 32
2. 25
3. 5
4. 30
5. 0
6. 0
7. 0
8. 8

[GeorgiaModerate]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $15
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $30
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $0
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $0
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $0
8. Trump dies in office. $15

Zero chance of impeachment (or more importantly, removal by 2/3 of the Senate) even if he broke every law in the book. Thus zero chance of him resigning

You're probably right about impeachment and I likely weighted it too high.  But I also think there's a nonzero chance that he might resign because of poor health (hence the "for any reason").

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $15
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $30
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $0
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $0
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $0
8. Trump dies in office. $15

Zero chance of impeachment (or more importantly, removal by 2/3 of the Senate) even if he broke every law in the book. Thus zero chance of him resigning

You're probably right about impeachment and I likely weighted it too high.  But I also think there's a nonzero chance that he might resign because of poor health (hence the "for any reason").

I think what's most likely is that the 25th amendment would get invoked, but he'd still be President.

[Mr. Morden]

4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.

To clarify here, Trump already launched his reelection campaign, and filed the paperwork with the FEC for 2020.  He did so back in January.  So he's already running.  But I guess the scenario that you're imagining is that he drops out of the race?

[GeorgiaModerate]

4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.

To clarify here, Trump already launched his reelection campaign, and filed the paperwork with the FEC for 2020.  He did so back in January.  So he's already running.  But I guess the scenario that you're imagining is that he drops out of the race?

Yes.

[7,052,770]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $20
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $50
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $5
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $0
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $0
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $5
8. Trump dies in office. $15

[HillGoose]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $15
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $15 (although this is my favorite choice)
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $10
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $5
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $5
8. Trump dies in office. $5

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $20
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $50
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $5
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $0
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $0
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $5
8. Trump dies in office. $15

[dw93]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $25. 1993 was pretty rough for Bill Clinton and he managed to bounce back in '96. Trump could do this to, but at this point if Trump is re elected it'll most likely be because the Democrats snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again.

2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $30. A recession is bound to hit sometime in Trump's term, and with the way things are now, 2019 or 2020 is most likely when it's gonna hit and Trump's policies or lack of them will only make it worse. It doesn't look likely that he'll have any legislative success between now and the midterms and if the Democrats take the house next year, that either doesn't change or Trump starts cutting deals with Chuck and Nancy and this pisses of the base and depresses turnout. I can't imagine Trump having any foreign policy successes either, in fact the international stage might resemble that of 1980 or 2008 by the time Trump is done.

3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0 It would be humiliating for the GOP, or even the Democrats in this day and age to see a sitting President of their party deprived re nomination. The Republicans will do everything in their power to prop Trump up  if he's still in office and runs again.

4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $15 Trump did say he didn't think the Presidency would be so hard and he does miss his old life. He is also the oldest man elected President and isn't in the best shape to boot. I could also see a scenario where Mueller does find something truly incriminating against Trump, the Democrats retake the House and impeach him, but the Republicans in the Senate choose to acquit him on the condition that he doesn't run again. On the other hand, Trump isn't a quitter either.

5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $7.50 For reasons stated in #4, I could see this happening, but it's less likely as again, Trump isn't a quitter and I could see him at the bare minimum sticking it out till the end of his term.

6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $1.50 Trump has acted pretty erratic already and no one has seriously considered the 25th amendment yet. This could change, but this is the least likely way that Trump's Presidency ends.

7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $10. At first I didn't think this was all that likely. Now that Mueller issued indictments to people in, or at least people who were in Trump's inner circle tells me Impeachment AND Conviction is more possible for Trump than it was for  any President since Nixon.  If the GOP had more of a spine (if they even have any at all), I'd be putting more money on this. For this to happen though, it would take something truly incriminating to come out against Trump, the Democrats retaking the House next year, and Republicans in both the House and especially the Senate concluding that they'd be better off with Pence (and I can think of reasons why Pence would be worse for them going into 2020 than Trump).

8. Trump dies in office. $11. He's old, has a poor diet (one that makes mine look healthy and that's saying something), is out of shape, and is in the most stressful job in the world. It could happen. With that said, given that he is the most powerful man in the world, I imagine his health is heavily monitored and there's a good chance that anything serious would be dealt with before it becomes fatal.

[pbrower2a]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $10
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $15
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $10
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $4
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $6
8. Trump dies in office. $15

1. Powerful interests want a America to become an absolute plutocracy, and Trump is ideal for that. Unless the political climate changes, those interests will have nearly unlimited funds with which to buy the campaign aid that he seems to need, and then some just to make things safe, especially a filibuster-proof Senate. The possibility of this skyrockets if the GOP gets a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, in which case America becomes a Marxist caricature of capitalism at its worst.

2. In view of current polling before any economic meltdown or international disaster, I can reasonably expect him to go down to defeat, perhaps having no clue until the election returns come in, in which case he calls it all "fake news".

3. A hint: the most spectacular failure to be re-elected  while running for a second term, Herbert Hoover, faced no primary challenge.  The scenario of an incumbent President being rejected by his Party has not happened since the 'Fifties -- Eighteen-fifties, that is, and I see little reason for this now. President Trump has a good handle on the base of the Republican Party. Maybe little else now,  but the base is all that one needs for being re-nominated.

4. This would be admitting failure, which Donald Trump does not do.

5. This includes 'reasons of health' and pressure from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as well as resigning rather than be impeached and convicted.  

6. In view of his age and poor health habits, I can't rule this out.  Note well that Republicans got around the Alzheimer's of Ronald Reagan without a crisis, so this is a possibility.

7. This will be a bi-partisan matter. It may be Republicans who want him gone if most of his enmity is at intra-party rivals while Democrats want him to do political damage to his Party. How goes it with Mike Pence?

8, In view of his age and his poor health habits, he is a candidate for a stroke, heart attack, cancer, and diabetes.
 

[mvd10]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $25
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $35
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $5
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $3
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $25
8. Trump dies in office. $2

I think we're really underestimating the possibility of a Trump impeachment. Sure, something terrible has to happen for the GOP to even consider it, but the GOP has no love for Trump and this is Trump so something terrible will happen.

[dead0man]

1.$2
2.$2
3.$6
4.$20
5.$50
6.$4
7.$5
8.$11

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $35
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election.$40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.$0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.$10
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term.$5
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment.$0
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress.$0
8. Trump dies in office.$10

[Take your vitamins and say your prayers, Brother!]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $40
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $5
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $5
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $1
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $1
8. Trump dies in office. $3

I don't think that Trump is a 50-50 bet for re-election.  I just don't give the Democratic Party much credit for picking the right candidate at the right time.

[Mr. Morden]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $40
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $5
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $5
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $5
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $1
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $1
8. Trump dies in office. $3

This probably comes closest to my own views, though I might swap number 3 and number 8.  I guess there's some chance of a health issue taking Trump down, but a big reason why I think 5% is a reasonable guess for Trump's dying before Jan. 2021 is just because the POTUS is a pretty big target for assassination.  Just because it's been ~50 years since the last successful assassination doesn't mean it's not going to happen again.  A 1 in 20 chance of a modern prez not making it through a given four year term alive seems realistic to me.  But the people saying it's 15% rather than 5% are getting a bit carried away, IMHO.

[Wrong about 2024 Ghost]

Here are the rules: there are 8 possible outcomes of Trump's current term below.  You have $100 to spend.  You can allocate any amount between $0 and $100 to each outcome, but they must total exactly $100 (you have to allocate all of it).

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. 33%
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. 40%
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. 5%
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. 10%
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. 5%
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. 1%
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. 5%
8. Trump dies in office. 1%

1. The Dems may have a civil war, because the Party honchos can't stop kissing up to Wall Street. GOP voter suppression will be even stronger. Foreign interference will be widespread. In the face of economic or military disaster, Trump's con-artist schtick may be accepted by too many stupid Americans.

2. Fairly likely. (Wish I could say I don't think he'd get this far.) I think the economy is going to tank before the next presidential election, his probable war(s) will be losing their luster, and everyone left of center will be pretty motivated.

3. Unlikely. He'll be utterly ruthless in crushing opposition, too many Republicans are loyal to him and the evil stupidity he represents. And the media can't resist his deplorable shock-jock reality TV show. That's something a 'serious' GOP candidate can't compete with. It might happen if the economy crashes or a war goes very badly in late 2019-early 2020 though.

4. Depends on how his various insanities collide. A smart Trump would declare victory, leave, and blame all problems on the failures of his successors and their opponents. He could even talk about running again.

5. Huge ego, but he might resign as part of some deal to avoid jail time and confiscation of property.

6. I used to hope for it, but I don't think it'll happen, unless he really goes movie-psycho crazy, and probably not even then.

7. The GOP won't, and the Dems won't impeach their best argument for forcing liberals to support their corporate-sell out party leadership. Especially not to replace him with Pence. (Even though they both should. That goes out the window if he's really guilty of smething and won't resign.


8. Modern health care is good. There's a small chance of aircraft accident, assassination, sudden health issue, or some random accident, but they're all pretty low.





I did this as percentages, not dollars. If I was betting, I'd put it all on 1, because all the other outcomes are some level of victory anyway. And if this nation is evil and stupid enough to elect Trump again, I can use the money to buy a ticket on the Lot express.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone want to rethink your numbers based on tonight's Democratic wave?

[pbrower2a]

Anyone want to rethink your numbers based on tonight's Democratic wave?

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $10 8
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40 42
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $15
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $10
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $4
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $6
8. Trump dies in office. $15

1. Powerful interests want a America to become an absolute plutocracy, and Trump is ideal for that. Unless the political climate changes, those interests will have nearly unlimited funds with which to buy the campaign aid that he seems to need, and then some just to make things safe, especially a filibuster-proof Senate. The possibility of this skyrockets if the GOP gets a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, in which case America becomes a Marxist caricature of capitalism at its worst.

2. In view of current polling before any economic meltdown or international disaster, I can reasonably expect him to go down to defeat, perhaps having no clue until the election returns come in, in which case he calls it all "fake news".

3. A hint: the most spectacular failure to be re-elected  while running for a second term, Herbert Hoover, faced no primary challenge.  The scenario of an incumbent President being rejected by his Party has not happened since the 'Fifties -- Eighteen-fifties, that is, and I see little reason for this now. President Trump has a good handle on the base of the Republican Party. Maybe little else now,  but the base is all that one needs for being re-nominated.

4. This would be admitting failure, which Donald Trump does not do.

5. This includes 'reasons of health' and pressure from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as well as resigning rather than be impeached and convicted.  

6. In view of his age and poor health habits, I can't rule this out.  Note well that Republicans got around the Alzheimer's of Ronald Reagan without a crisis, so this is a possibility.

7. This will be a bi-partisan matter. It may be Republicans who want him gone if most of his enmity is at intra-party rivals while Democrats want him to do political damage to his Party. How goes it with Mike Pence?

8, In view of his age and his poor health habits, he is a candidate for a stroke, heart attack, cancer, and diabetes.
 

Should Doug Jones win an open Senate seat in Alabama, then we could see a big wave in 2018 followed by a Presidential loss like those of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1976.

[Senator Sirius]

Anyone want to rethink your numbers based on tonight's Democratic wave?

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $7 8
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $4037
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $0
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $15
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $10
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $4
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $6
8. Trump dies in office. $15

1. Powerful interests want a America to become an absolute plutocracy, and Trump is ideal for that. Unless the political climate changes, those interests will have nearly unlimited funds with which to buy the campaign aid that he seems to need, and then some just to make things safe, especially a filibuster-proof Senate. The possibility of this skyrockets if the GOP gets a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, in which case America becomes a Marxist caricature of capitalism at its worst.

2. In view of current polling before any economic meltdown or international disaster, I can reasonably expect him to go down to defeat, perhaps having no clue until the election returns come in, in which case he calls it all "fake news".

3. A hint: the most spectacular failure to be re-elected  while running for a second term, Herbert Hoover, faced no primary challenge.  The scenario of an incumbent President being rejected by his Party has not happened since the 'Fifties -- Eighteen-fifties, that is, and I see little reason for this now. President Trump has a good handle on the base of the Republican Party. Maybe little else now,  but the base is all that one needs for being re-nominated.

4. This would be admitting failure, which Donald Trump does not do.

5. This includes 'reasons of health' and pressure from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as well as resigning rather than be impeached and convicted.  

6. In view of his age and poor health habits, I can't rule this out.  Note well that Republicans got around the Alzheimer's of Ronald Reagan without a crisis, so this is a possibility.

7. This will be a bi-partisan matter. It may be Republicans who want him gone if most of his enmity is at intra-party rivals while Democrats want him to do political damage to his Party. How goes it with Mike Pence?

8, In view of his age and his poor health habits, he is a candidate for a stroke, heart attack, cancer, and diabetes.
 

Should Doug Jones win an open Senate seat in Alabama, then we could see a big wave in 2018 followed by a Presidential loss like those of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1976.

Preferably closer to the results of 1932 but not with the economy of 1932.

[Andrew]

He's an old man who's not in great physical shape . . .

This is wrong.  He's the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency.  He said so himself in the "doctor's note" he wrote.

[LabourJersey]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $1
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $25
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $1
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $40
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $7
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment. $1
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress. $5
8. Trump dies in office. $20

[GeorgiaModerate]

Revisiting this game in light of recent developments, and editing my original predictions.

Here are the rules: there are 8 possible outcomes of Trump's current term below.  You have $100 to spend.  You can allocate any amount between $0 and $100 to each outcome, but they must total exactly $100 (you have to allocate all of it).

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020.
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election.
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term.
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment.
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress.
8. Trump dies in office.

Here are mine, with reasoning:

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020.  $4 - As things stand now, he'd get clobbered by any Democrat not named Clinton (but there's a lot of time for things to change).  Down to $2.  Trump certainly isn't winning new voters and his opponents are energized.

2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election.  $25 - If he runs again, I think he'll fend off any primary challengers.  Up to $35.  If he runs again, he'll almost certainly win the primary.

3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary.  $10 - See above.  Down to $2.  There simply don't look to be any credible GOP challengers.

4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again.  $35 - He's clearly not enjoying the job.  This isn't likely to get any better by 2020.  Down to $25.  He's enjoying it more now, but he could decide to retire due to impeachment pressure.

5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term.  $5 - Trump doesn't seem like the type to quit, but I could see it happening if it looks like impeachment and removal is imminent.  Up to $10, as a consequence of impeachment becoming more likely.

6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment.  $1 - This seems very far-fetched.  No change.

7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress.  $10 - If the Democrats take the House next year then I think impeachment will follow, but 67 Senate votes to remove him would be a huge hurdle.  Up to $20.  It's still a big hurdle but seems more plausible now.

8. Trump dies in office.  $10 - Non-trivial likelihood.  He's an old man who's not in great physical shape and under stress that is likely to increase as time goes by.  Down to $5, because there's less time left for it to happen in.

[Orser67]

1. Trump serves full term and is reelected in 2020. $33
2. Trump serves full term, is renominated, but loses the general election. $40
3. Trump serves full term, runs for reelection, but loses the Republican primary. $5
4. Trump serves full term but chooses not to run again. $16
5. Trump resigns (for any reason) before completing his term. $14
6. Trump is removed by the 25th Amendment during his first term. $2
7. Trump is impeached and removed by Congress during his first term. $3
8. Trump dies during his first term (and before 2020 election). $2

In other words:
Trump wins re-election: 33%
Trump runs but loses: 45%
Trump serves out term but doesn't run for a second term: 8%
Trump resigns, dies, or is removed from office prior to the 2020 election: 14%

I don't see any way that Trump's second term isn't a total disaster (even relatively successful presidents like Obama, Reagan, and Eisenhower had tough second terms), but as the incumbent, I still think that Trump has a lot of advantages that could allow him to narrowly win re-election. His biggest advantage is his popularity among Republicans, which will almost certainly give him the 2020 Republican nomination if he runs. However, because he's so unpopular with people outside of the Republican party, I think that the single most likely outcome is that he wins his party's nomination and loses in the general.

And then there's about a one-in-five chance that he doesn't run for re-election, for whatever reason. I doubt that he will die or be removed from office in the next two years, but I won't completely rule it out. More likely is that he simply decides that he being president sucks compared to being a billionaire without serious responsibilities.