day 5: california

[© tweed]

After a day off, the road trip returns.  Now we're in california.

Discuss California.

Will Arnold be re-elected?  Will the Republicans have a chance in this state 10-15 years from now on a presidential level?

Those are just a handful of the topics that can be discussed.  The nation's most populus state no doubt will have a populated wealth of topics available for discussion.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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Probably, although we have a better chance of taking him out than originally thought.

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not unless they dump the religious right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Arnold has a 61% approval rating, so no he won't be re-elected.

[Alcon]

Arnold has a 61% approval rating, so no he won't be re-elected.

I'm assuming you mean disapproval?

The only risk the Dems currently run are losing Hispanic voters - they have in small towns around Fresno such as Firebaugh.  But the L.A. votership is pretty steady here.  Dems could make inroads in Orange County if they push toward a more libertarian line, but not win.  The same could go for San Diego County.

The Bay Area should provide a heavily reactionary vote as always, with the rest of the state a mix of moderately to very Republican areas with a few strange pockets of Democratic voting (such as Mono and Alpine County).  It will be interesting to watch eastern California to see if the Democratization pattern that affected Mono and Alpine will spill over into any other counties.

[Alcon]

I haven't been to California or even discussed Arnold with a Californian but something tells me he won't get re-elected.  I doubt he can come back fully from the horrible ratings he has now.  Then again, ratings aren't everything.  It really depends on who the Democrats put up.

I think the overall Democratic strength associated with California is a bit exaggerated.  All it takes really, is some non-California-Republican Republican to mix things up a bit.  It's only a matter of time before oh-so-liberal California becomes oh-so-moderate California.  Of course, if the Republican party wants to put in the attention that the mammoth state demands in order to shift slightly, they'd have to pay less attention to borderline states like Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and that would be quite devastating.

I wouldn't, in all fairness, call California "oh-so-liberal."  The Bay Area certainly is, but without the city of San Francisco, California would have voted for Bush.

The other Democratic mainstays beyond San Francisco are the rest of the Bay Area (very liberal - although the outer parts are more libertarian), some heavily Hispanic areas (which aren't liberal so much as Democratic), and Los Angeles and some surrounding areas (which, again, aren't liberal so much as Democratic).  I think California is already fairly moderate, having voted for Kerry by only around ten points - small change compared to several Bush states.

I don't see much reasoning to believe that California will drift toward the right in the current climate.  It is, behind definitely Oregon and Washington and maybe Vermont and Nevada, the least religious state, and that's with a population that is approximately one-third Hispanic!

The greatest threat to the Dems is a loss among non-white voters, who in 2004 consisted about 55% of the population, but only about 35% of the electorate.

[opebo]

Will Arnold be re-elected?

No.  Californians are embarrassed that he was every elected in the first place.

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No, no chance.  Why would Californians vote for the same candidate that Mississippians vote for?

[Alcon]

Will Arnold be re-elected?

No.  Californians are embarrassed that he was every elected in the first place.

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No, no chance.  Why would Californians vote for the same candidate that Mississippians vote for?

Ask Californians in 1980, 1984, and 1988.

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't, in all fairness, call California "oh-so-liberal."  The Bay Area certainly is, but without the city of San Francisco, California would have voted for Bush.

Er...Dem margin in SF ....240K votes app.
Dem margin in Calif...1,25mio votes app.

One very interesting thing about the California 2004 results is that the valley continued to drift ever more heavily Rep and the bay area continued to drift ever more heavily Dem.
While the underpopulated North was more mixed and SoCal drifted slightly Rep (round about as much as the nation), Central California seems to be tearing apart all along the San Andreas Fault.

[Gustaf]

California is so big I don't think it'll turn towards the GOP anytime soon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, to win California the GOP must do at least one of two things:

1-make inroads into the Bay Area (yeah right)
2-rebuild some of their former strongholds in suburban Los Angeles

The first is practically impossible at this point, the second is not going to happen as long as the religious right owns the party. Remember, Goldwater did better than Bush in Orange County. The strongholds the GOP used to have that could deliver them the state just aren't there anymore.

[The Duke]

To understand California you must understand that there are several Californias.

The first is in the Bay Area, and is much like Vermont or Rhode ISland, very liberal in all regards, a sort of ivory tower place.  Not just San Francisco, but the surrounding Universities such as Cal and Stanford make this area a Democratic stronghold and this should not change anytime soon.

The second California is the interior, which is not much different from Idaho or Wyoming.  It is very conservative in nearly all regards, except for trade where the agriculture element is wary of open markets.  This area, too, should remain as it is.

These two Californias cancel each other out.  The third California is where elections are won or lost, because this is where most Californians live, the southland.

Out of 33 million people in the state, half live in Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties.  These counties are collectively known as the southland.  The defining features of this area are suburbs, which stretch endlessly for hundreds of miles, and the minority population which is mostly hispanic.  The political culture of the suburbs is a suburban culture really, pro gun conrol, pro environment, anti tax, moderately pro choice, anti spending.  Center left on social issues and center right on economics.  The political culture of the hispanics is the exact inverse.  Democrats ususally win here because hispanics focus on economics and suburbans (exept in much of San Diego and Orange) focus on social issues.

So, how can Republicans win in California?  Find McCain type Republicans, that's how.  They have to be people who are not seen as too loyal to the Republican Party (McCain is a maverick), they have to be for gun control and the environment (McCain backs Kyoto, don't know about guns), and they have to oppose new taxes (one area where California is unabashedly with the Republicans is taxes, look at Prop 13).

As for the future, Republicans really have a strong chance to be competitive in California, but they do have to nominate people who share the suburban political culture.  This means backing gun control (California has a long history of gun control, going back to Roberti-Roos, the nation's first state assault weapons ban), pro environment (We love our pristine coastlines, and will give up a lot to keep them that way), and to some extent abortion (Though I don't think this is nearly as important in reality as the other two, but the result in the 1998 Senate race made it seem very important to outside observers.  Actually, it could hurt to be pro-choice because it turns off hispanics.).

Hispanics seem to be becoming a swing group, and studies show that the longer the hispanic's family has been in America, the more their voting patterns look like the voting patterns of white Catholics.  I don't think its a stretch to say that in 15 years, California will be close to Pennsylvania today.  San Francisco is like Philadelphia, the southland is like Pittsburgh plus the Philly sburbs, and the interior is like central PA.  Its not a perfect analogy, but it gives you an idea what kinds of competitiveness you'll find in 15 years.