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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Siena/NYT: Northam +3
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Author Topic: Siena/NYT: Northam +3  (Read 1731 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: November 05, 2017, 07:55:11 am »

43/40.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2017, 07:57:38 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2017, 08:01:17 am by superbudgie1582 »

Oh thank goodness.

Edit: I hope we get one of Nate Cohn's maps, and a breakdown of the numbers. That missing 17% is concerning.
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OkThen
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2017, 08:01:04 am »

So many undecideds...
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2017, 08:02:25 am »

As with (R)asmussen, Gillespie's vote share is matching Trump's approval rating (39%).
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2017, 08:02:50 am »



https://www.nytimes.com//2017/11/05/upshot/upshot-siena-poll-gives-democrat-narrow-lead-in-virginia-governors-race.html
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2017, 08:15:11 am »

Nate Cohen said on twitter that when they screened out those least likely to vote, the result is 46%-43%.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2017, 08:18:16 am »

Nate Cohen said on twitter that when they screened out those least likely to vote, the result is 46%-43%.

Also Hyra was not included in this poll.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2017, 08:19:05 am »

Nate Cohen said on twitter that when they screened out those least likely to vote, the result is 46%-43%.

Also Hyra was not included in this poll.

Hyra is apparently. Gets 2%.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2017, 08:28:05 am »

Looking through the crosstabs, you need to download then in a xlsx doc. A couple interesting ones:

Past Primary History: Dem - 30, Rep - 36, Other - 34
Northam leads in all age brackets except 65+
Northam lead of 54-27 in NOVA, 49-39 in Richmond, and 42-40 in Tidewater. Gillespie lead of 43-40 in Central, and 57-27 in the West.
Self-report 2016 vote: 41 Clinton, 39 Trump, 8 Other
Trump approval of 39 approve - 51 disapprove - 10 no opinion

Why are people no longer polling the HoD ballot?!?! One month ago it was on all polls.....
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2017, 08:36:37 am »

I still think Northam is in the lead, but this high level of undecideds is quite nerve-racking: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/927162599766151173
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swf541
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2017, 08:45:07 am »

I still think Northam is in the lead, but this high level of undecideds is quite nerve-racking: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/927162599766151173

They didnt screen out very unlikely voters.

LV model has it 46-43 2 hyra
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2017, 09:00:49 am »

I still think Northam is in the lead, but this high level of undecideds is quite nerve-racking: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/927162599766151173

They didnt screen out very unlikely voters.

LV model has it 46-43 2 hyra
I've read the article, I know that. It's more the rapid swing that could happen.
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swf541
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2017, 09:05:57 am »

I still think Northam is in the lead, but this high level of undecideds is quite nerve-racking: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/927162599766151173

They didnt screen out very unlikely voters.

LV model has it 46-43 2 hyra
I've read the article, I know that. It's more the rapid swing that could happen.

Fair enough.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2017, 09:10:29 am »

Northam should be ahead more in Hampton Roads thatís his area, he killed it there in the primary and his past runs.
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Loot4Socialism
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2017, 09:21:54 am »

Northam should be ahead more in Hampton Roads thatís his area, he killed it there in the primary and his past runs.


I think him winning Hampton roads but not doing as good as he could is probably accurate. The hampton roads area swung against hillary last year and it had a lot to do with the region being the slower of NoVa-Greater Richmond-Hampton Roads areas to rebound from the 2008 recession considering its economy is tied to military spending and bases which didn't fare well when the Iraq war was winding down.
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SPQR
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2017, 12:06:53 pm »

18% of blacks being undecided is kinda high...?
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Jacobin
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2017, 12:21:07 pm »

Those numbers among Whites without a college degree are disconcerting.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2017, 12:21:32 pm »


SOP for polling. Republicans and undecideds generally overpoll among Black respondents.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2017, 12:32:14 pm »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2017, 01:55:40 pm »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2017, 02:08:26 pm »

Those numbers among Whites without a college degree are disconcerting.

Siena's cross tabs love to confirm, or perhaps serve as confirmation bias, for my theories on political trends.

Non-College Educated Whites is the new GOP base and getting at or near 70% among them is a necessity.

Then, as I said in another thread, the hand to hand combat occurs among College Educated whites to see who narrowly wins them and thus the election.

It seems in VA though an outright win isn't necessary among this group at least according to this poll. -3% to -5% for a Republican could suffice depending on turnout variables among the different groups.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2017, 02:38:51 pm »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2017, 02:59:10 pm »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).


Keep in mind that Kaine is from VA.  Without Kaine, I think Clinton finishes somewhere between McAuliffe 2013 and Obama 2012.  It would still vote left of the nation, but not as dramatically.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2017, 03:10:09 pm »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).


Keep in mind that Kaine is from VA.  Without Kaine, I think Clinton finishes somewhere between McAuliffe 2013 and Obama 2012.  It would still vote left of the nation, but not as dramatically.

VP boost has historically given 2 points at a maximum to the home state. So at a minimum, this would put VA at 2 points left of the nation, compared to 2012 where it was pretty much exactly the same as the nation.

Also, here are the regions from the polls sampling that I posted above:

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2017, 04:09:08 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2017, 04:12:21 pm by Skill and Chance »

This was probably the Republicans' last chance to win anything statewide in VA. Barring a Larry Hogan vs. Anthony Brown situation, Ds should have a lock on the state and things will only get worse for the VA GOP from now on.

To me it looks more like VA is completely inelastic with a built in Dem edge since 2010.  3-6% Dem edge in presidential years, no matter what, and a 1-3% Dem edge in off-years and midterms. 

However, if Gillespie does win on Tuesday, as he has about a 40% chance of doing, I think we have to give Trump VA if he wins the PV in 2020.  So I wouldn't say this is the last chance, but 2020 likely will be.

I now think Fairfax and Herring will both outrun Northam and that Northam will trail the legislative generic ballot.  So a Gillespie + 0.5% win with all other statewide Dems winning and a bunch of Dem HoD gains is a distinct possibility.  I don't know how the heck I would interpret that in terms of 2018/20.

Really don't see it. Trump is beyond toxic in VA, and the state already voted 4 points to the left of the nation in 2016. Trump has little room for growth in the rural areas, but NoVA, Virginia Beach, Richmond+suburbs, etc. are far from maxed out for Ds. With the way Trump has governed I really see no path for him to win there in 2020 (or any other Republican, btw).


Keep in mind that Kaine is from VA.  Without Kaine, I think Clinton finishes somewhere between McAuliffe 2013 and Obama 2012.  It would still vote left of the nation, but not as dramatically.

VP boost has historically given 2 points at a maximum to the home state. So at a minimum, this would put VA at 2 points left of the nation, compared to 2012 where it was pretty much exactly the same as the nation.

Also, here are the regions from the polls sampling that I posted above:



Anyone want to estimate how these regions broke in 2016?  At a first glance, it seems bizarre that red and lime green could both be close at the same time.  VA Beach would have to be a Gillespie double digit blowout and the Eastern Shore, Charlottesville, Petersburg, and the small >40% black localities have to be doing a heck of a lot of work for Northam.  For obvious reasons, this year could be the most left wing Charlottesville/Albemarle has ever voted, but as for those other counties, the CW is that black turnout will be down vs. 2013.  Also, pretty sure both SW and NOVA are substantially closer than with Clinton/Trump, but I think that is consistent with CW.
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