|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 03, 2020, 02:40:50 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +14
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NJ-Monmouth: Murphy +14  (Read 1356 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,323
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 01, 2017, 01:49:23 pm »

Link.

53% Murphy (D)
39% Guadagno (R)
2% Others (I)
Logged
#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,956


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2017, 01:56:28 pm »

Has Guadagno ever poll beyond 40%?
Logged
UncleSam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,617
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2017, 02:29:11 pm »

Monmouth seems pretty R-friendly in both major governor races this year. Obviously Murphy is safe but the margin will be interesting as regards the Maryland, Vermont, and Massachusetts races next year. Do Dems turn out beyond what pollsters see in blue states?
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,307
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2017, 03:01:41 pm »

Will this race be called before or after 8:05 PM?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,088
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2017, 03:03:39 pm »


I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,521
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2017, 11:20:34 pm »


I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.


Actually both New Jersey and Virginia are getting exit polls this year. I confirmed this with Edison Research.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,431
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2017, 11:32:08 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,088
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2017, 11:33:05 pm »


I'm guessing their will be no exit polls, so I'm guessing they'll have to wait for the first set of numbers to come in.


Actually both New Jersey and Virginia are getting exit polls this year. I confirmed this with Edison Research.

Aye! So yeah, NJ should be an insta call.
Logged
Everything Burns...
jdb
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,938
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2017, 07:12:42 am »

If Murphy over-performs his poll numbers, is there any chance the margin makes some of the NJ and suburban Philly Republican Congresscritters re-consider their decision to run for re-election?  At the very least I could see Freylinghusen retiring and Van Drew finally running and scaring LoBiondo into retirement. 
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,310
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2017, 07:23:12 am »

D +14 would be pretty much a typical New Jersey statewide result.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,958
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2017, 02:51:09 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.

Murphy winning by 30 points is about as likely as Guadagno winning.
Logged
fluffypanther19
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,573
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2017, 02:52:03 pm »

Anywhere from Murphy +15 to Murphy +30 is the reasonable range of outcomes for this race imo.

Murphy winning by 30 points is about as likely as Guadagno winning.
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,771


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2017, 09:22:12 pm »

If Murphy over-performs his poll numbers, is there any chance the margin makes some of the NJ and suburban Philly Republican Congresscritters re-consider their decision to run for re-election?  At the very least I could see Freylinghusen retiring and Van Drew finally running and scaring LoBiondo into retirement. 
Probably not this is more of an anti Christie vote and most of those incumbents are pretty entrenched for not.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.145 seconds with 14 queries.