VA-WaPo/Scher: Northam +5

[Beet]

Ed Gillespie has an amazing ability to crush expectations. The fact that he nearly beat Mark Warner of all people in 2014 is telling, and the national GOP has gotten much more skilled since than at stoking voter fears over MS-13. There are a lot of people who couldn't bring themselves to vote Trump who'll pull the lever for Ed Gillespie.

[Beet]

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Gillespie can't win those numbers in DC suburbs.

he can't win 27% ?  seriously?

*can't win with those

The regional numbers are a bit strange. Literally the only region Gillespie is winning is SW Va., but he's still within 5? SW Va. is a huge area (I just drove through it), but it's not that dominant in state politics. No region of Virginia has the ability to deliver the state all by itself.

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I would say that was more Corey Stewart crushing expectations. If Stewart had won the nomination, he would probably be doing just as well. Any losses in NoVa. among the establishment GOP crowd would be made up with working class whites and a bigger margin in SW.