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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +17
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Author Topic: VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +17  (Read 3502 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: October 30, 2017, 10:51:57 am »

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2495


Dafuq
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2017, 10:54:11 am »

Great poll!
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2017, 10:54:18 am »

The true race on November 7th? Quinnipiac vs. Hampton.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2017, 10:54:32 am »

I thought Quinnipiac was gonna do a Gillespie +1 poll just to f**k with Wulfric.

I was wrong.

Who was drunk when they took this poll?
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Not_A_Man
Not_Madigan
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2017, 10:56:28 am »

Someone post the BRD poll that had Northam +6 and just delete this trash.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2017, 10:56:44 am »

What a nice poll!

In all seriousness, the only thing that matters here is that Northam gianed 3 points in two weeks.
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2017, 10:57:14 am »

Either this race is a tossup or it's not lol

At this point, either Northam's winning or Gillespie's winning.

🤔
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The Saint
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2017, 10:59:32 am »

What
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2017, 11:00:40 am »

Even if we discount the topline - this is a +3 gain for Northam from the previous Q poll. Also, only 7% undecideds. If we push those undecideds 6% Rep, 1% D (a fair split for VA) we get 54% Northam, 43% Gillespie, and 3% Hyra - a believable margin.

Wish they polled the HoD ballot or downballot candidates.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2017, 11:03:55 am »

Quinnipiac has really lost its credibility this year. It had Periello consistently leading Northam by a few points in the primary, and it looks like they haven't changed their methods of polling VA since. Now watch as Northam really does win by 17
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2017, 11:08:07 am »

It is ridiculous
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2017, 11:08:13 am »

My guess is that their Northam number is correct and it will end up being like 53-45-2
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2017, 11:08:16 am »

Yep. Still Junk.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2017, 11:08:49 am »

Back and forth election race. I think it all comes down to turnout and which political party turns out more.

It is still a tossup.
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Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2017, 11:12:46 am »

My guess is that Northam will do about as well as Hillary. If it is anything like this, the GOP is assuming the position. If it is really close, Democrats are in trouble and are pretty screwed if they lose here.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2017, 11:15:18 am »

Anyone else find it funny how Wulfric claims to be rabidly anti-socialist but supports Phil Murphy but not Ralph Northam?

Anyway, give all the undecideds to Gillespie and I can see a 53-45-2 result.

A third term of Christie is not beneficial to New Jersey
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2017, 11:38:53 am »

Anyone else find it funny how Wulfric claims to be rabidly anti-socialist but supports Phil Murphy but not Ralph Northam?

Anyway, give all the undecideds to Gillespie and I can see a 53-45-2 result.

A third term of Christie is not beneficial to New Jersey

Neither is a Republican trifecta in Virginia.
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2017, 11:48:11 am »

This is one of the worst polls for anything I have ever seen!
Northam is not up 17 heck the last time a democrat won by more then 15 was 2008 with Warner.
Discount this garbage right now itís no different then a poll with Gillespie up 17.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2017, 11:50:22 am »

The fact that they did not even poll the Lt Gov and AG races makes me lose all respect for Qpac.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2017, 11:52:39 am »

You can try really hard to make it seem like the mean is a tied race, but we probably wouldíve seen Gillespie +17 polls if that were actually the case. Average this with the Hampton poll and itís about a 4-5 point lead for Northam, which is around where other polls have been.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2017, 11:57:11 am »

Freedom poll, though a 7 percent win would already be surprising.
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OneJ
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2017, 12:18:16 pm »

I like this poll.
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Arch
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2017, 12:19:37 pm »


I see what you did there. Wink
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2017, 12:22:55 pm »

I remember when there was this website "that was trying to unskew the 2016 polls", and they thought Quinnipiac apparently had a pro-Trump bias, while all the other pollsters apparently had a pro-Clinton bias.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2017, 12:31:21 pm »

The 3-point drop off in support for Gillespie is the important thing here. Are moderates in NOVA starting to get alienated by his campaign the way they would've by a Stewart campaign? Or is he losing support among the base anyway?

+17 isn't really believable but it's certainly possible Northam will end up with 53+% of the vote.

If you thought Northam had a 1-2 point edge last week (as I did) it's probably safe to adjust that back to the 2-4 point range based on this poll. Basically taking the race off the edge and putting it back to the outskirts of polling MoE territory.
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