Queensland State Election- November 25, 2017

[Lachi]

Tim Mander must be made of gold to get a swing to him in Everton - Next LNP leader perhaps?

Nah, the last two LNP leaders have been Brisbane Liberals, and neither achieved long-term success, and in my opinion the size of the landslide in 2012 was solely due to Metro Brisbane being OK with a Liberal, compared to a National. I'm putting my money on a National getting the leadership, because I think that the Libs have had their go and now it's the nats turn.

This is all assuming the LNP even stay as one party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tim Mander must be made of gold to get a swing to him in Everton - Next LNP leader perhaps?

Nah, the last two LNP leaders have been Brisbane Liberals, and neither achieved long-term success, and in my opinion the size of the landslide in 2012 was solely due to Metro Brisbane being OK with a Liberal, compared to a National. I'm putting my money on a National getting the leadership, because I think that the Libs have had their go and now it's the nats turn.

This is all assuming the LNP even stay as one party.

Precisely, I'm increasingly of the opinion that the LNP experiment is over, as with compulsory preferencing there is no need for it anymore, and the two wings are, in my opinion, too different to be one party, but similar enough to be in an eternal coalition.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Region & Electorate	Swing	Gains
Far North Queensland
Barron River	+1.0 LNP
Cairns	+4.1 LNP	ALP GAIN from IND
Cook	+2.9 ON
Hill	+15.3 KAP
Mulgrave	+0.5 LNP
North Queensland
Burdekin	+2.0 LNP	In Doubt - LNP ahead
Hinchinbrook	+8.1 KAP	In Doubt - KAP ahead
Mundingburra	+0.4 LNP
Thuringowa	+2.0 ON
Townsville	+6.0 LNP	In Doubt - LNP ahead
Traeger	+9.6 KAP
Whitsunday	+0.6 LNP
Central Queensland
Bundaberg	+4.6 LNP	LNP GAIN from ALP
Burnett	+4.5 LNP
Callide	+5.9 ON
Gladstone	+8.2 ALP
Gregory	+3.3 LNP
Hervey Bay	+0.6 ALP
Keppel	+0.2 ALP
Mackay	+1.6 LNP
Maryborough	+1.6 ALP
Mirani	+7.7 ON	ON GAIN from ALP
Rockhampton	+9.2 ON
South West Queensland
Condamine	+7.8 ON
Southern Downs	+6.3 ON
Toowoomba North	+3.4 LNP
Toowoomba South	+0.6 LNP
Warrego	+0.3 ALP
South East Queensland
Sunshine Coast
Buderim	+1.5 LNP	LNP GAIN from ON
Caloundra	+0.6 ALP
Glass House	+1.8 LNP
Gympie	+1.1 LNP
Kawana	+3.1 LNP
Maroochydore	+1.9 ALP
Nanango	+1.0 LNP
Nicklin	+1.6 LNP
Ninderry	+1.2 LNP
Noosa	+18.6 IND	IND GAIN from LNP
Moreton Bay
Bancroft	+2.1 LNP
Ferny Grove	+0.6 LNP
Kurwongbah	+0.7 LNP
Morayfield	+3.9 ON
Murrumba	+3.9 ALP
Pine Rivers	+1.8 ALP
Pumicestone	+1.0 LNP	LNP gain from IND
Redcliffe	+2.6 LNP
Greater Brisbane – Northern
Aspley	+4.2 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Clayfield	+3.8 ALP
Cooper	+7.1 ALP
Everton	+3.3 LNP
McConnel	+4.9 ALP
Nudgee	+5.7 ALP
Sandgate	+3.6 ALP
Stafford	+3.4 ALP
Greater Brisbane – Southern
Algester	+4.9 ALP
Bulimba	+4.3 ALP
Chatsworth	+0.3 ALP
Greenslopes	+5.1 ALP
Inala	+5.7 ALP
Lytton	+3.4 ALP
Maiwar	+5.3 GRN	In Doubt - GRN ahead
Mansfield	+0.8 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Miller	+3.0 ALP
Moggill	+2.9 ALP
Mount Ommaney	+4.8 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
South Brisbane	+9.1 GRN
Stretton	+5.2 ALP
Toohey	+3.8 LNP
Ipswich
Bundamba	+3.7 LNP
Ipswich	+5.4 ON
Ipswich West	+0.1 ALP
Logan City
Jordan	+1.3 ALP
Logan	+3.3 ALP
Macalister	+1.9 ALP
Springwood	+2.4 ALP
Waterford	+1.4 ALP
Woodridge	+1.1 ALP
Redland City
Capalaba	+0.9 ALP
Oodgeroo	+1.8 LNP
Redlands	+5.1 ALP	ALP GAIN from LNP
Gold Coast & Scenic Rim
Bonney	+0.6 ALP
Broadwater	+2.2 LNP
Burleigh	+0.0
Coomera	+2.5 ALP
Currumbin	+2.5 ALP
Gaven	+3.5 ALP	In Doubt - ALP ahead
Mermaid Beach	+4.1 ALP
Mudgeeraba	+1.0 ALP
Scenic Rim	+2.1 LNP
Southport	+1.4 ALP
Surfers Paradise	+0.4 ALP
Theodore	+2.3 ALP

Updated with yesterdays figures.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Forgot to post Yesterday, but Antony Green has officially called 47 seats for Labor so they will form Majority Government. Only four seats in doubt, Maiwar will support the Government, either as a part of it of materially through the Greens. KAP easily leading in Hinchinbrook, it's in doubt only because of the want to get final preferences to make 100% sure that KAP will be in second. In the other 2 (Burdekin and Townsville) the LNP will almost certainly win Burdekin, however the LNP lead in Townsville by only 13 VOTES, so its still anyones game there.
So the numbers are currently:
Labor - 47-50
LNP - 38-41
KAP - 2-3
One Nation - 1
Greens - 0-1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I'd say the likely composition of the next Queensland Legislative Assembly is:
Labor
LNP
Katter's - 3
One Nation - 1
Greens - 1

the only seat I can't see a clear winner, or likely winner, is Townsville, where Labor is currently ahead by 58 votes on 2PP

[Kamala]

Palaszczuk will be the first female Premier of an Australian state to be re-elected/serve more than one term.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Palaszczuk will be the first female Premier of an Australian state to be re-elected/serve more than one term.

Annastacia Palaszczuk has made a good many achievements, she's only the second female premier to win a mandate (Anna Bligh in 2009 was the first), first to lead a party from Opposition to Government, and the first to be re-elected. However all of these have already been achieved by Chief Ministers, Clare Martin in the NT achieving all of them.
Gladys Berejiklian in NSW is the first female Liberal premier, and at the moment it's looking like she'll win re-election.

[Lachi]

Townsville has been called for Labor.

Only Hichinbrook remains, and it's looking like Katter's party will gain it.

Final results: (47 needed for majority)
Labor: 48
Liberal National: 39, possibly 40
Katter's Australian: 2, probably 3
Greens, One Nation, Independent: 1 each

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Seat	Status
Algester	DECLARED
Aspley	DECLARED
Bancroft	DECLARED
Barron River	DECLARED
Bonney	DECLARED
Broadwater	DECLARED
Buderim	DECLARED
Bulimba	DECLARED
Bundaberg	DECLARED
Bundamba	DECLARED
Burdekin	DECLARED
Burleigh	DECLARED
Burnett	DECLARED
Cairns	DECLARED
Callide	DECLARED
Caloundra	DECLARED
Capalaba	DECLARED
Chatsworth	DECLARED
Clayfield	DECLARED
Condamine	DECLARED
Cook	DECLARED
Coomera	DECLARED
Cooper	DECLARED
Currumbin	DECLARED
Everton	DECLARED
Ferny Grove	DECLARED
Gaven	DECLARED
Gladstone	DECLARED
Glass House	DECLARED
Greenslopes	DECLARED
Gregory	DECLARED
Gympie	DECLARED
Hervey Bay	DECLARED
Hill	DECLARED
Hinchinbrook	DECLARED
Inala	DECLARED
Ipswich	DECLARED
Ipswich West	DECLARED
Jordan	DECLARED
Kawana	DECLARED
Keppel	DECLARED
Kurwongbah	DECLARED
Lockyer	DECLARED
Logan	DECLARED
Lytton	DECLARED
Macalister	DECLARED
McConnel	DECLARED
Mackay	DECLARED
Maiwar	DECLARED
Mansfield	DECLARED
Maroochydore	DECLARED
Maryborough	DECLARED
Mermaid Beach	DECLARED
Miller	DECLARED
Mirani	DECLARED
Moggill	DECLARED
Morayfield	DECLARED
Mount Ommaney	DECLARED
Mudgeeraba	DECLARED
Mulgrave	DECLARED
Mundingburra	DECLARED
Murrumba	DECLARED
Nanango	DECLARED
Nicklin	DECLARED
Ninderry	DECLARED
Noosa	DECLARED
Nudgee	DECLARED
Oodgeroo	DECLARED
Pine Rivers	DECLARED
Pumicestone	DECLARED
Redcliffe	DECLARED
Redlands	DECLARED
Rockhampton	DECLARED
Sandgate	DECLARED
Scenic Rim	DECLARED
South Brisbane	DECLARED
Southern Downs	DECLARED
Southport	DECLARED
Springwood	DECLARED
Stafford	DECLARED
Stretton	DECLARED
Surfers Paradise	DECLARED
Theodore	DECLARED
Thuringowa	DECLARED
Toohey	DECLARED
Toowoomba North	DECLARED
Toowoomba South	DECLARED
Townsville	DECLARED
Traeger	DECLARED
Warrego	DECLARED
Waterford	DECLARED
Whitsunday	DECLARED
Woodridge	DECLARED

Party	Seats
ALP	48
LNP	39
KAP	3
ON	1
GRN	1
IND	1

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor has officially attained a majority with the ECQ declaring that the Labor candidate has won Thuringowa.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With all seats officially declared the result is now finalised.
So the composition of Queensland's 56th Parliament shall be the following:

Party	Seats	Change
ALP	48	+4
LNP	39	-3
KAP	3	+1
ON	1	+1
GRN	1	+1
IND	1	±

Diagram:

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This is a good result for Labor. They, by themselves, have 48 seats, a majority of 3, though that becomes 2 if they can't convince a cross bencher to become speaker. Added to that, the Greens will vote with them on just about everything bar Adani, which brings them to 49 seats, for a majority of 5 or 4 depending. One Nation will vote with the LNP most of the time, bringing them to 40, Katter's are all over the place, and only really specify who they support if they absolutely have to, a.k.a. in hung parliaments. I unfortunately don't know much about the new independent in Noosa, so I would have to leave the question of which side she'll support to someone else.