Most stunning state result?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush winning WV by that margin was definitely the most surprising

[OSR stands with Israel]

FL 2004 was not at all surprising


Bush did 3 points better in 2004 than in 2000 and his Florida vote went up by 5 points from 2000 which is only a two point difference.


OH 2016 while a little surprising, everyone expected Trump to win Ohio , and the state democratic party is in shambles there. Remember Kasich won OH by 30 points in 2014, so while Trump winning by 8 points was surprising , the state still was considered leaning Trump by CNN(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2016) so that means he was up 4-5 points in the Ohio polls before election day.


PA 2008 is not that surprising at all , and it actually I believe in relation to the popular vote McCain did better in PA than Bush did in 04.


As for VA 2008, it was clear that VA had been trending dem for some time by 2008, and along with  the fact that Obama was a great fit for the state, and the bad economy VA is not that surprising.



WV on the other hand PVI went from a 5.5 point advantage for the dems in 96 to a 6.8 point deficit in 2000, and unlike OH 2016 the dem party in WV was not only strong it was extremely strong (Byrd won the senate race by 57 points ,and the Dems won the governor seats) so that makes WV 2000 more surprising.