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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Most stunning state result?
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Poll
Question: Which of these state results was most surprising?
#1
Bush winning WV by 6.3% in 2000
 
#2
Bush winning FL by 5.0% in 2004
 
#3
Obama winning PA by 10.3% in 2008
 
#4
Obama winning VA by 6.3% in 2008
 
#5
Trump winning OH by 8.1% in 2016
 
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Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Most stunning state result?  (Read 663 times)
Arbitrage1980
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« on: October 27, 2017, 03:59:06 pm »

Self explanatory
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2017, 04:01:34 pm »

Bush winning WV by that margin was definitely the most surprising
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bagelman
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2017, 04:05:53 pm »

Trump in the swing state of OH winning by a margin close to TX was stunning.
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#Solid4096
Solid4096
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2017, 04:07:49 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 04:35:33 pm by Solid4096 »

Trump in the swing state of OH winning by a margin close to TX was stunning.

I remember being convinced by 11/7/2016, that Trump stopped caring about winning the election and only cared about winning Ohio.  Iowa was an actual surprise, however.
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2017, 04:20:13 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 04:26:36 pm by PoliticalShelter »

I don't really see how Bush's 2004 Florida result was all that surprising, if anything it's more suprising that Gore managed to do as well as he did.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2017, 06:16:56 pm »

FL 2004 was not at all surprising


Bush did 3 points better in 2004 than in 2000 and his Florida vote went up by 5 points from 2000 which is only a two point difference.


OH 2016 while a little surprising, everyone expected Trump to win Ohio , and the state democratic party is in shambles there. Remember Kasich won OH by 30 points in 2014, so while Trump winning by 8 points was surprising , the state still was considered leaning Trump by CNN(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2016) so that means he was up 4-5 points in the Ohio polls before election day.


PA 2008 is not that surprising at all , and it actually I believe in relation to the popular vote McCain did better in PA than Bush did in 04.


As for VA 2008, it was clear that VA had been trending dem for some time by 2008, and along with  the fact that Obama was a great fit for the state, and the bad economy VA is not that surprising.



WV on the other hand PVI went from a 5.5 point advantage for the dems in 96 to a 6.8 point deficit in 2000, and unlike OH 2016 the dem party in WV was not only strong it was extremely strong (Byrd won the senate race by 57 points ,and the Dems won the governor seats) so that makes WV 2000 more surprising.
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#Solid4096
Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2017, 06:19:32 pm »

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#Solid4096
Solid4096
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2017, 06:28:52 pm »

Larry Sabato thought Kerry was going to win Florida in 2004.

He also thought Bush was going to win Wisconsin.

He got no other states wrong.

Overall, had he been correct in all races, it would have been a 269-269 tie.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2017, 07:56:58 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 07:59:30 pm by Mr.Phips »

Larry Sabato thought Kerry was going to win Florida in 2004.

He also thought Bush was going to win Wisconsin.

He got no other states wrong.

Overall, had he been correct in all races, it would have been a 269-269 tie.

Yeah, Florida was definitely seen as being far closer than 5 points.  Many late polls actually had Kerry ahead there.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2017, 11:05:27 pm »

Trump winning ME-02 by double digits
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