VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 (user search)
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  VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2  (Read 1710 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: October 27, 2017, 12:52:01 PM »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2017_VA_TPC_10_27_20171.pdf
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2017, 01:14:31 PM »

F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference.

Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place?

What you guess the electorate will look like. If you think the electorate will be a lot older and whiter than 2013/14, then this poll and Monmouth are for you. If you don't think that, and think that the electorate will match 2013, then the modest Northam leads are for you. If you think Dem enthusiasm is gonna be higher than it typically is in off-years like 2013, then the Northam +high single digits to double digit leads are for you.

Wrong. Read this twitter conversation. White vote was 76-77% in 2013 according to voterfile data.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/920387673092755458
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