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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2
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Author Topic: VA-The Polling Company (R): Gillespie +2  (Read 1095 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: October 27, 2017, 12:52:01 pm »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2017_VA_TPC_10_27_20171.pdf
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2017, 12:55:06 pm »
« Edited: October 27, 2017, 12:57:43 pm by superbudgie1582 »

F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference.

Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place?

Edit: Seriously, atleast 3 polling firms are going to look stupid come November 7th.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2017, 01:02:57 pm »

It's happening.gif !

... for some reason.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2017, 01:03:11 pm »

Should be noted that it's a tie when they include Hyra, the libertarian.  The libertarian candidate was the margin of victory for both Warner 2014 and McAuliffe 2013.

They also find a tie for AG but exclude the LG race entirely.  Odd.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2017, 01:08:13 pm »

F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference.

Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place?

What you guess the electorate will look like. If you think the electorate will be a lot older and whiter than 2013/14, then this poll and Monmouth are for you. If you don't think that, and think that the electorate will match 2013, then the modest Northam leads are for you. If you think Dem enthusiasm is gonna be higher than it typically is in off-years like 2013, then the Northam +high single digits to double digit leads are for you.

Thats just not logical though.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2017, 01:14:31 pm »

F.Y.I, this was Kellyane Conway's polling firm before she entered the white house. Not sure if that makes a difference.

Edit: Regardless, why are polls so over the place?

What you guess the electorate will look like. If you think the electorate will be a lot older and whiter than 2013/14, then this poll and Monmouth are for you. If you don't think that, and think that the electorate will match 2013, then the modest Northam leads are for you. If you think Dem enthusiasm is gonna be higher than it typically is in off-years like 2013, then the Northam +high single digits to double digit leads are for you.

Wrong. Read this twitter conversation. White vote was 76-77% in 2013 according to voterfile data.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/920387673092755458
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2017, 02:21:37 pm »

Wait, this thread hasn't reached 10 pages yet? lol

Anyway, I haven't really followed any of these races, but I really doubt that Herring is tied with Adams. Still Lean D IMO, Northam should win by 2-4, though I could definitely see Democrats outperforming the polling average this time, which seems to be an underrated possibility (especially if we include polls like this and that Hampton poll).  
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Arch
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2017, 03:14:31 pm »

Wait, this thread hasn't reached 10 pages yet? lol

Anyway, I haven't really followed any of these races, but I really doubt that Herring is tied with Adams. Still Lean D IMO, Northam should win by 2-4, though I could definitely see Democrats outperforming the polling average this time, which seems to be an underrated possibility (especially if we include polls like this and that Hampton poll).  

I'll just wait for the election at this point. No use getting hung up on polls. They can either tell you whether a seat is safe or competitive to some degree. I learned my lesson in 2016.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2017, 04:53:41 pm »

So it's 44-44-3 when Hyra is included, but 45-43 without Hyra, meaning Northam lost a point because another candidate was removed? Sure.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2017, 07:50:42 pm »

Seriously, a polling company called the polling company? F***ing what?
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Arch
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2017, 07:52:36 pm »

Seriously, a polling company called the polling company? F***ing what?

It's like Toilet Paper brand toilet paper.
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History505
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2017, 09:34:31 pm »

Northam's leading! Gillespie's leading! And back and forth. We'll see who really takes it on election night.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2017, 10:05:04 pm »
« Edited: October 28, 2017, 08:18:21 am by Brittain33 »

I like this poll.
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