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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-CNU: Northam +7
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Author Topic: VA-CNU: Northam +7  (Read 1226 times)
heatcharger
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« on: October 26, 2017, 10:56:40 pm »
« edited: October 27, 2017, 09:22:00 am by heatcharger 🌹‏ »

Using my D-VA connections, I got the CNU poll thatís supposed to come out tomorrow.

(change from 10/9)

Governor:
Northam 50% (+2)
Gillespie 43% (-1)
Hyra 3%

Lt. Governor:
Fairfax 47% (-1)
Vogel 44% (+4)

Attorney General:
Herring 49% (-2)
Adams 44% (+4)

The big 5-0.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2017, 11:31:33 pm »

Potential warning for Fairfax, should Northam win by a tighter margin.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2017, 11:50:12 pm »

Weirdly, I'm actually more interested in seeing Fairfax win than I am in Northam, who I've never doubted. The Democrats desperately, desperately need young talent, and at 38, Fairfax will have a long future ahead of him if he wins.

In the end, though, I think they'll both run ahead of polls. If John Bel Edwards could run massively ahead of his end-of-cycle polling, so will Northam and Fairfax.
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Everything Burns...
jdb
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2017, 07:41:56 am »

Weirdly, I'm actually more interested in seeing Fairfax win than I am in Northam, who I've never doubted. The Democrats desperately, desperately need young talent, and at 38, Fairfax will have a long future ahead of him if he wins.

In the end, though, I think they'll both run ahead of polls. If John Bel Edwards could run massively ahead of his end-of-cycle polling, so will Northam and Fairfax.

I think Herring definitely has a future, but Fairfax doesn't strike me as someone who will rise beyond the LG's office.  OTOH, Virginia Democrats seem to be big on folks waiting in line and Fairfax is actually likely to be in better shape if he waits until after Herring runs for Governor (as I strongly suspect he [Herring] will in the next election), but I think Fairfax might be a bit too ambitious for his own good.  I also worry that Fairfax is too liberal for where Virginia will be for the next few years, especially if we have a Democratic President in 2021 (another reason he's better off running for re-election as LG if he wins this year).  Time is on Fairfax's side, but I don't know if he's smart enough to wait.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2017, 07:48:56 am »

7% undecideds 10 days out? Good but not great. Gillespie can still win if literally everyone who still hasn't made up their mind votes for him. Then again, the Libertarian will win like 2 or 3%. Maybe if simply does very well and Northam does very poorly in the last week, it will be 2014 for him all over again.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2017, 08:10:12 am »

CNU was pretty good in 2016
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KingSweden
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2017, 08:43:52 am »

Great news for Northam... maybe some mild concern for Fairfax and Herring
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swf541
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2017, 08:52:54 am »

7% undecideds 10 days out? Good but not great. Gillespie can still win if literally everyone who still hasn't made up their mind votes for him. Then again, the Libertarian will win like 2 or 3%. Maybe if simply does very well and Northam does very poorly in the last week, it will be 2014 for him all over again.

4% undecided, 3% is for Hyra

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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2017, 09:38:07 am »

Pretty funny how fast RCP was in putting in the Hampton poll, but still haven't put in this one.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2017, 09:55:53 am »

Weirdly, I'm actually more interested in seeing Fairfax win than I am in Northam, who I've never doubted. The Democrats desperately, desperately need young talent, and at 38, Fairfax will have a long future ahead of him if he wins.

In the end, though, I think they'll both run ahead of polls. If John Bel Edwards could run massively ahead of his end-of-cycle polling, so will Northam and Fairfax.

I think Herring definitely has a future, but Fairfax doesn't strike me as someone who will rise beyond the LG's office.  OTOH, Virginia Democrats seem to be big on folks waiting in line and Fairfax is actually likely to be in better shape if he waits until after Herring runs for Governor (as I strongly suspect he [Herring] will in the next election), but I think Fairfax might be a bit too ambitious for his own good.  I also worry that Fairfax is too liberal for where Virginia will be for the next few years, especially if we have a Democratic President in 2021 (another reason he's better off running for re-election as LG if he wins this year).  Time is on Fairfax's side, but I don't know if he's smart enough to wait.

Fairfax would easily be the most liberal statewide elected official in Virginia, but I believe he can and will tone it down with a term as Lt. Governor with Northam as head executive. And yes, I agree he should run for re-election in 2021 and cede the gubernatorial nomination to Herring. He'd be set up pretty nicely to take Kaine or Warner's Senate seat in 2024 or 2026 respectively, and maybe even beyond that.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2017, 12:04:11 pm »

I will be royally pissed if Northam loses, but this poll is good.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2017, 12:49:04 pm »

I will be royally pissed if Northam loses, but this poll is good.

Personally, I wish people would dress nicer if the country was becoming more Republican. Stricter dress codes. Maybe allow cigars, but no cigarettes at work.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2017, 12:58:25 pm »

I think Fairfax is going to lose to Vogel.
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