VA-Hampton: Gillespie +8

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Highly unrealistic outcome. Looks like they just encouraged/bribed lots of Northam voters to say "undecided".

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who is Ralph Nortdam?

Anyway, this poll is obviously junk, but should we throw it into the average/database?

Keep it out of the database as this outcome is about as likely as pigs learning to fly. If you're constructing a polling average for your own use, giving this poll half or quarter weight might have some merit, but the database can't do that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Sanctuary City Questions are really interesting:

Q13. And how would you feel about establishing a Sanctuary City in the Commonwealth of Virginia? Would you favor or oppose establishing a Sanctuary City in Virginia?
Frequency   Percent
Favor Sanctuary City in VA   267   36%
Oppose Sanctuary City in VA   420   56%
Don't know/Refused   63   8%
Total   750   100%

Q14. And finally, how would you feel about your own city or municipality becoming an established Sanctuary City? Would you favor or oppose the area in which you live becoming a Sanctuary City?
Frequency   Percent
Favor hometown Sanctuary City   256   96%
Oppose hometown Sanctuary   5   2%
Don't know/Refused   6   2%
Total   255   100%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ 2016 late deciders was obviously the Shy Trump Effect at work. There was a real social stigma to voting for Trump, and especially on a live caller interview, lots of people were too scared to admit their support. You admit your support for Trump, and suddenly you have to defend the access hollywood scandal, him saying he wouldn't accept the results of the election if he didn't win, the muslim ban, the wall, the sexual assault allegations, attacking disabled reporters, the gold star family incident, etc. etc. Until late September, you had to explain why you supported the candidate that even Ted Cruz was refusing to endorse. It's pretty easy to see why people didn't want to admit their support publicly - not to friends, not to pollsters, not on the exit polls - but instead keep it in the secrecy of the ballot box, where no one could know for sure what they did except themselves.

As for elections before that, it seems like the undecided voters just decided to back the winner - they backed republicans in 2014, they backed Obama in 2012, republicans in 2010, Obama (nationally) in 2008, democrats in 2006, etc.