day 4: arkansas
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  day 4: arkansas
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memphis
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2005, 05:44:13 PM »

I agree with you that Dems from Arkansas can still win there. Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor come to mind. However, regarding Dems in Presidential elections, which is the topic this thread is about, I think the story may be different. Of course, Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, so he had a home state advantage, which I'll concede only goes so far as Al Gore demonstrated. Even Clinton's election was not as simple as one may at first think because of Perot's impressive showing in the 1990s elections. Short of a Dem landslide or having a native son, I really don't think Arkansas would go for a Dem presidential candidate. Anybody who could win the primary among national dems would have trouble in Arkansas.  Nonetheless, Arkansas is still one of the most Democratic states in the South.
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2005, 08:35:15 AM »

The democrats have to get organised particularly in the northwest. This is one of the few states that the dems can really win. Nominating a liberal from massachusetts against an incumbent at a time of war is dificult to assess how easily a victory can be achieved for the dems. Warner, Bayh can definitely carry the state even without nominating Blanche Lincoln.

The dems are strong but the reps have the gay marriage hot button issue to fall on.
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