Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[jeron]

What is the tomato-looking thing on SP's logo?

If something looks like a tomato it usually is a tomato. The SP has been using the tomato as a symbol for years.

[jeron]

A local government department in Amsterdam of which I had never heard, OIS, conducted a poll. Quite brutal for D66 and PvdA. Good poll for the right: it would mean that the (leftish) VVD Amsterdam attract quite some D66 voters to compensate for the loss of voters to FvD.

Former party leader Frits Bolkestein criticized Amsterdam VVD leader Eric van den Burg for being too left-wing this weekend, saying that he would vote for the #5 on the list, Hala Naoum Nehmé.

As for D66, GL Amsterdam leader Rutger Groot Wassink said it best: "It did not even take them four years to become the same arrogant lunatics as the PvdA were in the sixty years before."



Bonus content: this absolutely brutal "Spot the differences" ad by the SP Amsterdam, attacking GL for supposedly being exactly like D66, symbolized by the cargo bike, the ultimate symbol of bougie white highly educated "progressive" vegan gentrifying Amsterdam -- the people who will now turn from D66 to GL. "Make a real difference. Vote SP Amsterdam."

This probably means that there will be a GL-D66-VVD coalition, with an outside chance for PvdA. SP would be out of the coalition

[jeron]

Most recent Rotterdam poll. Leefbaar up from 9 to 11, PVV down from 3 to 1 -- completely deserved. The only remotely realistic coalition based on these numbers is GL-SP-VVD-D66-PvdA, maybe with the CDA as well. A complete monstrosity, and suicide for the VVD. Negotiations are going to be terrible.

There was a coalition of LR-D66-CDA and it could continue by adding VVD. That will not be easy either, but is seems better than a 5 or 6 party coalition. It is clear that we desperately need some kind of electoral threshold

[jeron]

Rotterdam:
Leefbaar 11 (-3)
VVD 5 (+2)
PvdA 5 (-3)
D66 5 (-1)
GL 5 (+3)
DENK 3 (+3)
NIDA 2 (nc)
SP 2 (-3)
CDA 2 (-1)
PVV 2 (+2)
PvdD 1 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
CU-SGP 1 (nc)

Leefbaar-VVD-CDA-D66 have a majority: 23 seats. The former Left Alliance are at 14. Together with D66 they reach 19, but from there it would become damn difficult. Muslim parties got well over 10% of the vote. The loss of the SP feels especially good to me. Leo de Kleijn is really an a**hole and deserved to lose for going full intersectionalist and continuing to embrace NIDA instead of following Lilian Marijnissen's more "workerite" way. Working-class voters were right to reject the SP Rotterdam.

I don’t see a possibility for a majority coalition with this result. Coalition talks will be difficult

[jeron]

Coalition agreement of GL, D66, PvdA, SP soon to be presented in Amsterdam. I guess people deserve what they vote for.

I was about to call for Amsterdam-Zuid separatism, but even Amsterdam-Zuid is quite left-wing despite its affluence (VVD only got 25% there or so vs 21% nationwide). For heaven's sake, even the Zuidas (Dutch Wall Street + loads of lawyers) voted 'only' 40% VVD (32% D66). It all depends on how you see D66 I suppose. If parties have to be arbitrarily divided in a left-wing camp and a right-wing camp people tend to put D66 with the left, but I imagine D66 voters would be split 50/50 in a VVD vs generic centre-left party race.

Many people fail to make a distinction between progressive and left. Nationally, D66 is more centre right than centre left. D66 is progressive but economically it is certainly not left.
32% for D66 at the Zuidas is hardly a surprise, since D66 has always had a lot of support among lawyers, judges and other legal professionals.

[jeron]

Climate policy seems to be driving a wedge between FVD and VVD almost everywhere. This has caused multiple attempts at coalition formation with FVD to fail.

In Noord-Brabant, negotiations between FVD, VVD and CDA broke down over the issue, though the VVD want FVD to return to the table. In Gelderland, the informateur advised the formation of a VVD-GL-CDA-PvdA-CU-SGP coalition. Like Noord-Holland, Utrecht will make a center-left turn: GL-D66-CDA-PvdA-CU are coming to an agreement in the central province. And in Friesland, CDA-FVD-VVD-FNP broke down over the climate issue.

But FVD are still negotiating in Drenthe (PvdA-FVD-VVD-CDA), Overijssel (CDA-FVD-VVD-CU-PvdA), Zeeland (CDA-FVD-SGP-VVD-PvdA), Flevoland (unclear which coalition) and Zuid-Holland (FVD-VVD-unclear).

The negotiations in Drenthe have failed and it seems like there will be a 5 party coalition without FvD. Today PvdA left the negotiations in Overijssel after massive pressure from it members, Which makes the negotiations in Zeeland quite uncertain as well

[jeron]

Before Corona it had to do with VVD taking some quite unpopular measures relating to pensions, and I think in a way 50PLUS is a key outlet to a significant part of the VVD electorate who would want to express dissatisfaction with VVD's economics - rich boomers in the West who want less taxes on salary and especially sitting capital (NL has tax breaks for capital fluidity, but its more lucrative to sit on capital in Belgium) but better pensions. After Corona, well, they have remained stable I think for obvious reasons - they play on the whole idea that there was a certain carelessness in handling the elderly with herd immunity. Worth posting those polls :

https://twitter.com/EenVandaag/status/1244943138684313600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...


The internal turmoil is pretty recent, and quite frankly its a typical drama that is more of the concern of the politico types like us and the "Haagse Kaasstolp",the Circuit. In the end 50PLUS have a simple message : no touching our pensions. and it creates a cleavage that works. Its the best single issue Krol could have picked (and make no mistake Henk Krol is there to serve Henk Krol's interests, no one elses). They can test the political mood on the latest issue and use it to their advantage. So when the idea of eurobonds or EU transfer union is up, they can bring it back to the pension issue somehow "well you see those pesky Southern Europeans retire earlier than us, and we work hard for our pensions, so No". its populist without being outright offensive/cranky. Had they not shat the bed internally I would have seen them benefit from FvD's troubles too.   

50plus is now losing seats in the latest polls. Last week the party chair announced his resignation. Henk Krol then said he would reconsider leading the party into the next election.

Meanwhile, CDA decided to get into a coalition with FvD and VVD in the province of North Brabant after an internal referendum. About 20-25% of the members voted and 56% supported a coalition with FvD. The decision was heavily criticised within the party

CDA has not yet chosen its leader for next year’s election. Hoekstra has been favored, though Hugo de Jonge seems to be gaining support. However there is also speculation that both want to avoid being party leader right now, because at the moment Rutte is very popular and CDA would inevitably lose the election to VVD.

[jeron]

I have often wondered why the Netherlands despite not having a threshold has no "true" far-left movement - Trotskyists, anarchists or what have you. Same for parties to the right of PVV - although there are no shortage of rivals for Wilders, they seem more driven by ego rather than an ideological clash - there aren't any classic NPD style nazis either.

Well, there used to be far-left parties until the 1980s (the communist party and the pacifist socialist party), but these porties merged into GroenLinks which was eventually dominated by left liberals. I suppose many of these people ended up voting SP when it got into parliament in 1994.

[jeron]

Meanwhile, Thierry Baudet stands down as FVD party leader as a result of the antisemitism and nazism crisis within the party. Many people within the party, including MP’s, asked Baudet to force the leader of the party’s youth wing and number 7 on its electoral list Freek Jansen to stand down. Apparently Baudet was not prepared to do so.

[jeron]

So to those angry at the purges as of late in the SP, where would those voters go?

They have nowhere to go. The last time a communist party took part in the general election was in 1998. It got 0.07% of the vote....
One of the ousted SP members has been elected president of the party’s youth organisation, RED. The radicals have not given up yet.

[jeron]

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.

Baudet doesn’t have the right to organise a leadership election or a party conference as hé is not part of the executive committee anymore. The problem is that Baudet can send emails to the members and has the passwords for the social media accounts and uses those accounts. A split in the party seems inevitable now. Either FvD with Baudet reinstated as its leader, but that probably means that half of the senators would leave.
Or FVD without Baudet, but that probably means Baudet starts a new party.

[jeron]

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.

So who is in the party leadership of the FVD exactly?

A senator is still part of it and a member of the European Parliament as well. The secretary stood down today after some kind of deal with Baudet was struck. There will be a referendum among the party members about the leadership of the party and in turn Baudet will renounce on any official position within the party for the time being. This caused considerable backlash within the party though, because some feel that Baudet should be thrown out of the party altogether. Two senators, the council members in Amsterdam and about ten provincial council members left the party. The number 3, 4 and 5 of the list for the upcoming elections also left the party. Senator Nicki Pouw accused Baudet of making antisemitic and racist remarks during a meeting last Friday. Baudet of course denied this, but her statements were backed up by others.

[jeron]

Baudet stays on as FVD leader btw.

He does after an internal referendum. It is unclear what is left of the party though. Only 2 of the original 12 senators are still party members. The FVD members of the European parliament left the party. In the latest polls FVD is down to 3 or 4 seats. Joost Eerdmans, who was number four on its election list, and Annabel Nanninga, FVD leader in Amsterdam, announced their intention to form their own party. It is getting crowded to the right of VVD.

[jeron]

I get that it was simmering for years but the government looked secure and now parties are threatening to walk...we were so close to an actual functioning more than two party coalition reaching its end point.

So, are PvdA finally gonna draft Timmermans in I wonder...that leadership election should be interesting. Aboutaleb would also be a good choice.

Timmermans already said he will stay in Brussels. Aboutaleb would be good choice but I doubt he wants it. He has just been appointed to a new term as mayor. Job Cohen proved that being a good mayor does not necessarily equate to being a good party leader. Other candidates could be one of the women, most likely Ploumen (former minister) or Arib.

[jeron]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372234051411709954?s=20

Turnout at 74% (19:45)

[jeron]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

Bad news for the smaller parties like Bij1 or Code Oranje as they will need more votes to get a seat

[jeron]

Would be an interesting addition to the Dutch left if Splinter could get in. As I understand, their MP has also played a quite significant role in parliament in promoting the "health care bonus", a pay rise for health care workers, as well as keeping the government to account on the child care scandal.

Only the health care bonus. She played no prominent role in the child care scandal. Frankly, i have no idea what yhis party would add to the political spectrum

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency. I cant imagjne anyone else winning Wagningen or Leiden of the polls were correct

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Maybe but Bij1 attracts other people, at least time Bij1 only did particularly well in Amsterdam Southeast. I don't know anyone who a)likes ms Simons, or b) would be willing to vote for her

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Studiebeurs was abolished during Rutte-II not Rutte-III (D66 indeed supported it). Volt will definetely eat up the D66 vote, but not BIJ1 and its questionable Volt is much more left-wing than D66. D66 may be post-materialis and may be somewhat woke, but its voters are also pragmatic. Another strong constituency of D66 are affluent suburban where they more compete with the VVD. The idealist post-materalis and more woke party is GL that is competing more with BIJ1 for the most wokish voters.

I think most people would consider D66 posh or elitist rather than woke.

[jeron]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

[jeron]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

No.

[jeron]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

Yes, Hoekstra is done. Koolmees will be finance minister

[jeron]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

CDA loves being in power. There is now way they are going to say no

[jeron]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht