Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era (user search)
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133948 times)
freek
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« on: October 26, 2017, 09:17:44 AM »

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« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2017, 03:33:43 PM »

There are commies outside of Groningen Shocked? GL and SP aren't represented in their municipal council, perhaps the commies are in because GL and SP didn't run? Heiloo also isn't that left-wing, the VVD got 35% in 2012 and 30% in 2017.
NCPN Heiloo is a one-man operation by Willem Gomes. Only in 2014, the party had more than one candidate.

In 2014 a second councillor was elected, but he left soon after. An interesting article about Gomes is found here: https://www.trouw.nl/home/de-eenzame-communist-van-heiloo~a036c527/

Heiloo never had a history of communism, most NCPN votes are essentially personal votes for Gomes. Previously there was 1 CPN councillor 1946-1953, and CPN never returned (as in so many municipalities).
NCPN/Gomes did gain some votes though when the local GroenLinks chapter was liquidated in 2014.  In the past GroenLinks (and predecessors) were represented in the council from 1982-2010 with 1 or 2 seats. In 2010 there was a joint list with D66.
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freek
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2017, 08:11:26 AM »

For reference: this is the Peil.nl poll of March 9, 2014. The Peil.nl poll closest to the local elections 2014 that I could find.

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freek
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2018, 01:42:15 PM »

Was Berkmoes the assistant or just a source?

Reminds me of something out of House of Cards...

Well, she never said that. She just said that something happened, which can mean a lot of things. And Berckmoes was a MP, so she couldn't have been the assistant.

I badly want Hans van Baalen as Foreign Minister btw.

Can't MPs be junior ministers in some capacity? Or do they always fill purely legislative functions?
Not at the same time. Banned by the constitution:

Quote
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freek
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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2018, 08:08:49 AM »


I always though SGP was the party of the former Gereformeerde Kerken while CU was the party of the former Hervormde Kerk, but apparently there isn't much of a difference (did some quick background research). Still, CU vote is geographically clustered (not as extreme as the SGP) so I imagine there isn't a lot of CU/other party crossover. Interestingly enough there are some places in the Northern parts of the country where CU does really well but SGP scores only 2% or so. Maybe it does have to do with (former) church denomination after all? I think a large chunk of CU voters were born in GPV/RPF voting families (just like SGP voters) instead of being swing voters (they did manage to win a couple of seats in 2006 though). CU/SGP voters (especially SGP voters) may be the last pillar remaining. Until DENK came along and won 75% of voters with a Turkish background in Amsterdam Tongue.
SGP voters are mainly a member of six denominations:

Three more or less exclusively SGP denominations descended from early 19th century splits of the Hervormde Kerk (just like the Gereformeerde Kerken):
- Gereformeerde Gemeenten
- Gefeformeerde Gemeenten in Nederland (split from the Gereformeerde Gemeenten in 1953)
- Oud-Gereformeerde Gemeenten
- (and independent churches with similar history, that never joined one of these denominations)

Furthermore the Christelijke Gereformeerde Kerken, which has a similar history as the first three, but is a bit more moderate (CGK members also vote CDA or ChristenUnie).
The remaining group of SGP voters remained a member of the Hervormde Kerk, as a more or less separate group, the Gereformeerde Bond. After the merger of the Hervormde Kerk into the Protestantse Kerken, a large part of the Gereformeerde Bond left, and formed the Hersteld Hervormde Kerk.

ChristenUnie is a merger of GPV and RPF.

GPV was founded after the 1944 split of the Gereformeerde Kerken Vrijgemaakt from the Gereformeerde Kerken, a particularly messy split. Especially in the North, in Bunschoten-Spakenburg and in the parts of Overijssel and Gelderland, this church is strong.

The SGP didn't have much to do with the former Gereformeerde Kerken. The party of the Gereformeerde Kerken used to be the ARP, which merged into CDA. The ARP moved to the left in the 70s. Disgruntled ARP voters  then founded the RPF. Not that many from the Gereformeerde Kerken, which was quite main stream. RPF voters were typically from the more right wing Christelijke Gereformeerde Kerken, the Nederlands Gereformeerde Kerken (a split from the Gereformeerde Kerken Vrijgemaakt) and also evangelicals and other small denominations. Initially they wanted to join the GPV, but that was denied.

The Hervormde Kerk was a big tent church. Some more liberal members voted for non-christian parties, more conservative ones usually voted CHU (and the members of the Gereformeerde Bond voted SGP, ARP and later RPF).

From Wikipedia:

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freek
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« Reply #5 on: April 11, 2018, 01:46:39 AM »

Did that fringe anti-revisionist Communist remnant hold its seats?
NCPN, the New Communist Party of the Netherlands:

They gained one and lost one:

De Fryske Marren: 2 seats (+1)
https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/de-fryske-marren/GR2018

Heiloo 1 seat (-1)
https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/heiloo/GR2018

In their former stronghold Oldambt, the NCPN doesn't participate anymore. However, the VCP (United Communist Party), that broke away from the NCPN does take part. That party won 3 seats (-1)

https://verkiezingensite.nl/uitslag/oldambt/GR2018
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freek
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« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2018, 09:59:00 AM »

The bellwether municipality of the general election last year was Apeldoorn, which nonetheless voted yes in the referendum. Perhaps this suggests that the referendum would have passed had there been a local election in every municipality.
On the other hand, the municipality of Heemskerk (which also has some fame as bellwether municipality) voted no.
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freek
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2020, 03:22:57 PM »

New polls in the Netherlands (Maurice de Hond)



Rather stable in the short term, but from a previous election perspective its quite clear D66 and CDA are being punished as so many have for being junior partners while Rutte gleams in the limelight. He has announced he will run again as list leader and candidate for Prime Minister. I think its fair to say he is one of the shrewdest political operators the country has seen for a while, given the difficult circumstances he has had to negotiate. The far right resurgence likely has to do with the Netherlands first real dose of hard lockdown. Note the new party : Code Oranje. Here is their (hilariously badly written, given how well the Dutch speak English) description on their website

Quote
Code Orange is a new political movement in the Netherlands, aiming to evolve the state of our democracy. The name Code Orange has two meanings.

First: when heavy weather is predicted and storms are coming, our weatherbroadcast speaks of Code Orange (the next phase is Code Red). With that association in mind we speak of Code Orange in our political system. More and more people decide not to vote at all, vote out of protest or do not vote wholeheartedly. Our analysis: the political system does not fit anymore with the mindset of our citizens. Years of education and emancipation, but also the transition into an age of information, asks for evolving forms of democracy.

Co-Democracy
This brings us to the second meaning of Code Orange. Code stands for Co-democracy: the democracy of coöperation and cocreation. New forms of on- and offline consultation, citizins assemblees and (p)referenda are knocking on our door to enrich the traditional representative democratic practices.

Code Orange points out these new democratic forms, which give our citizins the possibility to have more influence on their surroundings and on government policies than ‘one vote in four years’. In our modern society a representative vote for a political party is not enough. Citizins want more influence than that. The political systeem needs to be completed; needs te evolve. That is the plea of Code Orange.

People initiatives
In many city’s in our country, and in neighbouring countries as well, local initiatives and local government are succesfully experimenting with these new and transparant democratic forms. People initiatives are popping up more and more. The amount of cities organising citizins assemblees grow every day.

Code Orange strives to lift this movement up to the regional, national en European schale. Therefore people in the Netherlands now can vote for a movement that wants to increase their power and influence. At the last elections one out of houndred voters made this choice! Perhaps this is an idea for your country (or city) as well?

They seem to want a more localist platform and attract big shot lawyers, the type that really usually start their own “movement” alongside their practice.

Compared to the other pollsters, Maurice de Hond always seems to have much larger swings, especially for the more extreme parties. In the Peilingwijzer where the other 3 pollsters are averaged, VVD is at 42 seats, PVV at 21 and FVD at 6. The latest poll that was used there is from October 27 though.

The formation of new parties on the rightwing populist side is becoming quite hilarious now.

Last May Henk Krol from 50PLUS started the new Future Party, together with MP Femke Merel van Kooten (formerly PvdD). This resulted in this rather creepy picture.



A few months after, they were joined by Senator Henk Otten (formerly FVD). Van Kooten realized that Henk & Henk are quite right wing, and she left the Future Party within a few weeks. Last month, Henk Krol left the Future Party as well after some infighting with Otten, and he will start his own party now: Lijst Henk Krol. Otten essentially took over the Future Party with some of his associates, and plans to participate in the elections as well.

Code Oranje is also interesting. It already existed, and participated in the last province elections without much success. The party managed to find a new political leader. It is former PVV MP Richard de Mos. After leaving the PVV, he started his own local party in The Hague in 2013, named "Groep de Mos". Since 2018, it is the largest party in the council. De Mos became an alderman, but in 2019 he was arrested on corruption charges and was forced to resign. There were already rumours for some time surrounding his party regarding clientelism. De Mos denies all charges, and has not been prosecuted yet. And now De Mos is back in national politics with Code Oranje. His lawyer is #2 of the candidate list.
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freek
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2020, 03:50:11 PM »

Also interesting to see is the collapse of FVD. From just managing to get into parliament in 2017, it was the largest party in the province elections. Then, the infighting began. Senator and party treasurer Henk Otten (see above) criticized FVD leader Baudet. Baudets tendency for slightly racist, misogynistic or otherwise controversial statements harmed the party, according to Otten.

Since FVD claims to be a democratic party, Otten was immediately kicked out of the party. An MEP, several senators and members of provincial parliaments followed him. Baudet accused Otten of financial mismanagement as well.

This year, the COVID-19 views of FVD did not really help the party. At the beginning of the crisis in February/March, Baudet was strongly in favour of a lock down. The moment the country went into a partial lock down, FVD switched positions and became strongly against all COVID-19 measures. Since then, Baudet is drifting towards COVID-19 denying conspiracy theorists. His (former) supporters did not really seem to share these views, moving back to VVD or PVV.

At the same time, while critical of the handling of the COVID-19 crisis by the government, PVV was generally supportive of government measures. In typical PVV style, Wilders focused on  raises for health care personnel, and at the same time criticized the high percentage of COVID-19 patients with immigrant backgrounds on the Intensive care units.
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freek
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:31 PM »

and the FvD expelled the whistle blowers(!) in their youth wing for sharing the anti-semitic comments on their whatsapp groups to the press.

B-bUt....AnTi-SeMiTiSm Is OnLy FoUnD oN tHe LeFt ThEsE dAyS!!??!!!11!!!!??!!

As a reminder they kicked out the anti-semites too...but yeah the optics aren't great. Their claim is probably centred around the idea that you shouldn't doxx people on what are supposed to be private chats where people should be allowed to have a "dark sense of humour"...at the same time I don't think youth wings need to be a necessary place for locker room talk, let alone jokes about Anne Frank on cocaine.
And now Baudet has resigned as party leader because of this scandal.

Last weekend new screen shots from WhatsApp groups of the youth organization surfaced. Baudet announced a 'thorough investigation' (by some of his allies), hoping to kick the can down the road. Many of the other leading party members protested, and called for the complete termination of the youth organization instead.
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freek
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2020, 01:54:24 PM »

Party president is in the Netherlands usually not a position held by the party leader. FVD was the exception. Typically it is some alderman.

Tonight, the rebel party members have a meeting. At least one of them wants Baudet to resign as chairman as well.
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freek
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2020, 09:43:26 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2020, 09:46:28 AM by freek »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.
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freek
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2020, 11:35:33 AM »

So to those angry at the purges as of late in the SP, where would those voters go?
Only option I can imagine is BIJ1, it participated in the 2017 elections as "Artikel 1". It is not communist though, it is a 'Black Lives Matter', pro-LGBTQIA+-rights, pro-intersectional feminism party.
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freek
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2020, 08:06:48 AM »
« Edited: November 25, 2020, 09:07:12 AM by freek »

The FVD sh**tshow is going on and on.

Today, Baudet resigned as party president.
Theo Hiddema, the other FVD MP unexpectedly resigned from parliament effective today. It is not yet clear who will take over the seat. Next in line is #3 from 2017, Susan Teunissen, who already left the party in 2018. She is a supporter of Henk Otten, the senator who left the party in 2019. Incidentally, Otten was #4 on the 2017 list.
Joost Eerdmans (#4 on the preliminary candidate list, former LPF MP and formerly alderman in Rotterdam) announced his candidacy for the party leadership. Others may follow.

Yesterday evening senator Paul Cliteur (mentor of Thierry Baudet) resigned as well.

Today Baudet surprised everyone (even the rest of the party leadership) by reverting his resignation and announcing an online FVD leadership election on November 30 & December 1 (i.e. early next week), where he is a candidate.

The party leadership responded to Baudet by sending a locksmith to the party offices to change the keys.

So either Baudet is kicked out of the party later today, or his opponents leave the party. Either way, chaos is complete.
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freek
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2020, 12:04:12 PM »

Hugo de Jonghe withdraws as CDA Lijstrekker to focus on Corona policy. Likely due to the burnout experience of his predecessor. New elections expected at CDA then. Omzigt must be favorite.
That De Jonge has to focus on the corona policy caused internal unrest in the party as well. It was perceived that De Jonge was unable to give enough attention to his party leadership, and the polls were not great either.

Current favourite is finance minister Wopke Hoekstra. Last summer he declined to take part in the leadership election, but he is seen as the only one who would be able to take on Mark Rutte and the VVD. But it depends on Pieter Omtzigt, it is unclear if he would support Hoekstra. The party hopes for some kind of a dual candidacy. Hoekstra as PM candidate, Omtzigt as leader in parliament.
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freek
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« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2021, 12:10:18 PM »
« Edited: January 14, 2021, 05:48:04 AM by freek »

New topic for the election or can a mod change the thread title?

Anyway 89 parties have registered their names to be on the ballot. They have to submit lists and other official documents.

FvD's breakaway is called JA21 (Yes21)

The full list of the new parties :

Lijst Henk Krol
OPRECHT
Directe Democratie Partij
HET NIEUWE GELUID (HNG)
Idr1
Algemene Politieke Partij Nederland
Partij voor Ontwikkeling
Splinter
NIDA
Liberaal Nederland
JA21
Partij Zonder Naam
het Zetel Genootschap
Wij zijn Nederland
KINDPARTIJ
Blije Burgers
Volksbesluit
INL
Politieke Partij Nexus
Samen Sterk (USM)
EVERT!
Partij van de Eenheid
Partij voor de Kinderbelangen
Partij voor de Republiek
Nuchter Nederland
De Jongeren Partij


I'll do a rundown of those on the ballot when it is confirmed.
Parties have to turn in their candidate lists on February 1st.

Parties that didn't manage to get into parliament in 2017 also need to pay a €11250 deposit (returned when the party passes 0.5% of the votes), and 580 'declarations of support' to participate in all electoral districts. This is the largest hurdle for new parties, because there have to be 30 for each electoral district (there are 19 of these). For the 20th district (the Caribbean BES islands), 10 suffices. The forms have to be signed at the municipal hall, and co-signed by a civil servant, i a 4 week period between January 4 & February 1.

Previously, aspiring parties would post near a municipal hall and convince passers-by to sign the declaration. Currently, most municipalities have switched to work by appointment only. Hopefully, this limits the number of participating parties a bit.

My guess is that ~10 parties manage to participate in the whole (or almost the whole) country, probably all from this group. Some of them are eerily silent on social media though.

Code Oranje
JA21
BIJ1
Lijst Henk Krol
Splinter
Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
Piratenpartij
NIDA
Volt
Boer Burger Beweging
Libertaire Partij (formerly Libertarische Partij)
NL Beter (and/or Zorgend Nederland)
De Feestpartij
Jezus Leeft
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freek
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2021, 12:28:24 PM »

B1JI polled enough for one seat. If they can play their cards right, I could see them taking a lot of grassroots support from SP and DENK. Good riddance.
Not from DENK. Completely different cultural background. Almost every non-muslim left DENK when Sylvana Simons left in 2016.

I don't really buy BIJ1 gaining a seat. The party only barely managed to win a seat in Amsterdam council in 2018, which is their stronghold. The Dutch/Surinamese Creole population is too small, even if you add Dutch/Antillean and others. And PvdD is also picking up lots of votes of disappointed SP & GroenLinks voters.
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freek
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« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2021, 12:30:17 PM »

It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
EU funds politics is hardly a topic.
Environment is, though. Especially in connection with the climate crisis, wind mill construction, housing shortage and protesting farmers because of nitrogen emissions.

Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.
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freek
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« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2021, 12:48:37 PM »

Because of the Covid-19 issues, the election process on has been altered in some ways.

  • Instead of 2 weeks, new parties now have 4 weeks to collect 580 declarations of support
  • Voters have always been allowed to vote by proxy, and may still do so. But a voter may now vote for 3 others on their behalf instead of 2.
  • Voters are still allowed to vote in a random polling station in their municipality, but an exception has been made for the newly created 'restricted polling stations' in homes for the elderly and in hospitals. Here only residents/patients are allowed entrance. The municipality supplies an official poll observer.
  • There will be early voting on a limited number of polling stations per municipality on Monday & Tuesday (March 15 & 16). Early voting is completely new for the Netherlands. It is primarily intended for voters with health risks, but not limited to them. These ballots will be counted on Wednesday, counting will start from 07:30am.
  • All voters over 70 are allowed to vote by mail, and will be automatically mailed a ballot. Vote by mail was already possible, but only for citizens living abroad. It was not possible to include those under 70 with medical problems, due to logistics. The postal vote is not mandatory for the elderly, they may also opt to vote in person instead. There will also be drop-off boxes for mail ballots. Ballots have to be received by the municipality on March 17.
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freek
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« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2021, 03:37:40 AM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :


It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.

Basically the government could resign as a whole and them continue on as a current affairs government. But there's a fear that a minor party uses it as an electoral issue to leave the government altogether, and properly. They seem to have decided to stick together though : either we all resign and become current affairs or we all stay on.


2 Ministers are named in the report and one of them is Wopke Hoekstra. D66 are desperate to get rid of him politically by forcing "political consequences" upon the Cabinet and getting him to resign. Eric Wiebes is the other one.

Klaver Will submit a no confidence vote with support from SP and...PVV!

There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.
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freek
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« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2021, 04:33:50 AM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :

The scandal has been simmering for years now. Journalists and two MPs (Renske Leijten, SP and Pieter Omtzigt*, CDA) have been publicizing and questioning it very often. A parliamentary research committee just published their final report.

There are also many sides to it:
  • Strict anti fraud laws, at the request of parliament
  • The Tax Agency witch hunt for fraud cases. The selection of who to audit was questionable, dual nationality for example. Also, judgement was strongly prejudiced towards fraud, and those found guilty were automatically labeled as fraudster denying them leniency for repayments. People lost houses and jobs because of it.
  • The slow compensation of those who were wrongly accused of fraud and already repaid large sums of money.
  • The denial of responsibility on all sides. The Social Affairs Ministry (responsible for these social benefits) points towards the Finance Ministry, who points towards the Tax Agency who points towards the Social Affairs Ministry.
  • The misinformation of those who were affected, and parliament. Requested documents were deemed missing (or denied to exist), and leaked to journalists months after. If documents were found (sometimes months or years after), they were supplied almost completely blacked out, or labeled as 'secret'.
  • Related to the previous point: Rutte has the tendency to inform parliament as little as possible, moving most of his meetings within his government to informal ones without meeting notes so the Freedom of Information law does not apply.


* Omtzigt is a bit of a hypocrite though. He was the strongest proponent of strict anti-fraud laws 10 years ago.
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freek
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2021, 05:44:49 AM »


I think the more obscure question is where have the 50+ voters gone. And there's an obviously dark joke there about Corona  but still...
Yes, that's a difficult one. Problem with 50+ is that its voters came from all over the place (just like its leadership). My guess is that some will switch to PVV, but SP or CDA is also not out of the question.
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freek
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« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2021, 01:03:14 PM »

For those who are interested: The Guardian published an article about this scandal today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/dutch-government-faces-collapse-over-child-benefits-scandal
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freek
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« Reply #23 on: January 15, 2021, 08:17:16 AM »

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?
Very likely March 17th as planned
Yes, earlier elections than March 17 are not possible due to time constraints. The 4 week period for gathering declarations of support for new parties has already started, that can't be shortened.
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freek
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« Reply #24 on: January 15, 2021, 08:54:09 AM »


If the election is still happening on the scheduled date, does this make any practical difference?

Hardly. The resignation is mostly symbolic. It will continue as a caretaker government, with a mandate to act on urgent matters (in particular anything Covid-related).

Minister Eric Wiebes (Economic Affairs & Climate) completely resigned. In the previous government he was the junior minister responsible for the Tax Agency. One of the other ministers will take over his portfolio, as acting minister.
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