Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era (user search)
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era (search mode)
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133937 times)
SunSt0rm
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« on: January 12, 2018, 11:48:57 AM »

The poll seems to be in line with the general election result of 2017. D66 had 18% in Amsterdam (GL was larger), which is about 9 local seats. People forget that 2014 was the highpoint of D66 where it frequently polled first. To me this poll suggests that D66 is not really punished so far since they enter the national government
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2018, 05:55:45 AM »



Poll local election Rotterdam. Big loss for Leefbaar Rotterdam who are allied with FvD. Suprised to see that Leefbaar Rotterdam and PVV are smaller together than Leefbaar Rotterdam in 2014. Surprisingly the VVD will double the number of it seats according to this poll
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
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« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2018, 04:54:49 PM »

New poll

Rotterdam


Amsterdam
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2018, 07:24:41 AM »

Turnout for local election and referendum in the big cities are roughly equal so far.
The Hague 14.5% for local and 13% for referendum
Rotterdam 14.6% for local and 15% for referendum
Utrecht 16.2% for local and 16% for referendum

Overal, the turnout for the local election will be a bit higher than the turnout for the referendum simply because in some places only the referendum vote is held which will have a lower turnout in general


Also agree on David, on paper Denk seems to be ok but in practice they are a turkish nationalist and pro-Erdogan party who only care about their own base
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2018, 01:59:50 PM »

Exit polls will be held in 6 cities tonight. Especially Rotterdam, Amsterdam and Utrecht will be interesting. There will not be a country-wide exit poll for the local election

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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2018, 02:59:15 PM »

Me as well. i wouldnt be too suprised that no will win eventually.

My expectation:

- big losses for D66 where GL will win the all the univiersity and big cities
- PVV will dissapoint
- VVD will suprise with a high score and will easily be the strongest national party surpassing CDA
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2018, 03:03:50 PM »

Wow suprised by the exit poll in Rotterdam

Big losses for PvdA and SP. The left is punished by the (broken) left-islamic alliance

very dissapointing performance by PVV

Nida gaining votes while Denk is also performing well. Together they get more than 13% of the vote. Much higher than Denk last year
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2018, 03:11:21 PM »

Too close to call for referendum

Turnout 48%
49% For
48% Against
3% blanco

margin of error 5%
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2018, 03:16:56 PM »

The map will be interesting

My expectation student and big cities together with PVV/SP strongholds will vote against. Rural and suburbs will vote for
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2018, 03:21:04 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 03:25:40 PM by SunSt0rm »

Utrecht
GL bigger than D66

GL 25% (+8.1%)
D66 20.6% (-5.8%)
VVD 11.4% (+0.6%)
Denk 6.4%
PvdA 4.3% (-5.8%)
SP 4.3% (-5.2%)
PVV 4.1%

Big losses for PvdA and SP, especially the latter is suprised
I am suprised so far how D66 is able to limit it losses
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2018, 03:32:29 PM »

Where would the SP voters likely go? I believe they are normally the most working class party of the less, so is it the PVV entrance, that also hurts them? And who is hurt most by the emergence of DENK and the other parties for non-western immigrants. I'm guessing PvdA primarily?

SP is hurted by the GL, PVV and local parties. And PvdA probably to Denk and to BIJ1 in Amsterdam
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2018, 04:01:53 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 04:06:10 PM by SunSt0rm »

Amsterdam, GL bigger than D66

GL 22% (+11.4%)
D66 17 (-9.6%)
VVD 12.4% (+1.3%)
PvdA 11% (-7.2%)
SP 6.8% (-4.3)
PvdD 6.7% (+3.9%)
Denk 5.7%
FvD 4.9%
CDA 2.6% (-0.2%)
Bij1 2.3%

Big losses for D66, disappointed result for FvD

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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2018, 04:12:50 PM »

First results of the referendum are coming in. Groningen and Limburg are voting against
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 04:32:43 PM »

Jesse Klaver on television. I probably have to stay neutral, but I still want to vomit.

I cant wait for 2022 where they will lose. I just remember why I am on the right of D66
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 04:37:51 PM »

lol GL is defintely not connecting high educated voters with lower educated voters
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2018, 04:52:08 PM »

First student city coming in

Groningen
For 27%
Against 71%
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2018, 04:54:23 PM »

lol GL is defintely not connecting high educated voters with lower educated voters

If they could manage to do that they could basically replicate the PvdA 2012 coalition. But I think it's more likely that the PvdA gets it's act together (or that people just forget Rutte 2).

PvdA should replace Asscher if they want to recover and choose a new and more populistic leader who is tougher on immigration. I cant imagine Klaver is able to broaden much his party to lower educated voters. GL is not really winning big in places like Enschede as Amsterdam or Utrecht
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2018, 05:02:59 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 05:08:17 PM by SunSt0rm »

nevermind it is a partial result, but seems pointing to a heavily devastated result for the PVV

The north so far is voting unanimously against the referendum
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2018, 06:02:30 PM »

Utrecht referendum (partial I gues)

For 33%
Against 60%
Blank 6%
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2018, 06:10:52 PM »

Den Bosch

VVD 12.5% (+0.1%)
D66 11.9% (-1.0%)
GL 9.5% (+2.3%)
CDA 8.8% (-2.7%)
SP 7.6% (-1.3%)
PvdA 6.5% (-2.0%)
PVV 3.4%
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2018, 06:19:24 PM »

Wilders only 9.7% in his hometown

80% of the vote in The Hague

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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2018, 06:38:48 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 06:43:45 PM by SunSt0rm »

The surprise of the night. CU is winning Urk from the SGP

The gap between for and against is tightening. If for wins then thanks to the Noord Brabant, the bible belt and the CDA hearland in the east where for is winning big
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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
Netherlands


« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2018, 07:25:20 PM »

47-49.3 now. Only Amsterdam as biggest city is left. After that there are soms medium-big size cities as Arnhem, Lelystad and Tilburg and of course the student cities.

The Hague:

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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2018, 07:45:00 PM »

Amsterdam and some student cities are still left as biggest resources for the for side

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SunSt0rm
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Posts: 624
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2018, 08:03:21 PM »

Against is probably going to win. I dont see how for can overcome Amsterdam and the student cities with the vote left
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