Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

Another big thing that has come up so far from the debates is that Rutte claimed that he was informed this morning at 07:30 AM that the notes indicated he talked about Omtzigt, while other faction leaders were only able to look at their notes between 09:00-10:00 2 hours later. So someone leaked that information to Rutte and Rutte does not want to give his source away.

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDA; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

Its more likely that Rutte is afraid that Omtzigt will become CDA faction leader when CDA joins the government and Hoekstra decides to become Minister. And Rutte doesn't want someone that will criticize too much from parliament, so 'promoting' Omtzigt to Minister will silence him. In the notes, it seems that Jorritsma has also suggested to 'promote' Omtzigt to become Speaker. A symbolic neutral position.

[Zinneke]

Another big thing that has come up so far from the debates is that Rutte claimed that he was informed this morning at 07:30 AM that the notes indicated he talked about Omtzigt, while other faction leaders were only able to look at their notes between 09:00-10:00 2 hours later. So someone leaked that information to Rutte and Rutte does not want to give his source away.

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDA; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

Its more likely that Rutte is afraid that Omtzigt will become CDA faction leader when CDA joins the government and Hoekstra decides to become Minister. And Rutte doesn't want someone that will criticize too much from parliament, so 'promoting' Omtzigt to Minister will silence him. In the notes, it seems that Jorritsma has also suggested to 'promote' Omtzigt to become Speaker. A symbolic neutral position.

The leaked notes are also very interesting.

https://www.kabinetsformatie2021.nl/documenten

What a treasure trove of all the strategies and relations.

[Zinneke]

Rutte survived the no confidence vote so Rutte IV looks to be back on. I think D66 and CDA will suffer though for saying one thing and doing another.

[freek]

Rutte survived the no confidence vote so Rutte IV looks to be back on. I think D66 and CDA will suffer though for saying one thing and doing another.

Only the current coalition voted against the no-confidence vote. Even SGP was in favour, which is very rare.

A lighter 'disapproval motion' did pass however, with only the VVD voting against.

[SunSt0rm]

I hope the motion of disapproval means that Rutte can stay for a few month to manage Corona, but you are not going to lead the next government and VVD use this time to find a new leader. But I am probably too optimistic and CDA, D66 and CU were spineless again

[SunSt0rm]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

[SunSt0rm]

Some news after the debate and vote:

Rutte will not step down and will continue as PM and VVD leader and says he wants to win the confidence back and claims he received 1.9 million preference votes and would not step away.

After the vote of disapprove Kaag was interviewed and said she would have stepped down if she were Rutte place and says its no certainty that Rutte can continue

Youth organization of CU in a letter have condemn Segers for not voting for the motion of no confidence and ask Segers not to join a government with Rutte as PM

Parliament has decided that look for a new explorer next that will be independent and have distance with politics. Current explorers Koolmees and Van Ark have just resigned

[SunSt0rm]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

[freek]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

My 2 cents is that the second scenario is the likeliest. Either Edith Schippers, Jeanine Hennis or Tamara van Ark will be presented as the VVD candidate for PM.

[H. Ross Peron]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

How do they wish to further expand euthanasia?

[Flyersfan232]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

Rutte dreams of being a high ranking eu position are gone I take it

[Zinneke]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

Rutte dreams of being a high ranking eu position are gone I take it

No those plans are accelerating.
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210324/6604722/espana-alia-holanda-ue-menos-unanime.html
Rutte wants to form a pro-EU, pro-market, pro-competition block that tries to counter-weight France and Germany's temptation to go more towards the China Inc. economic model of state subsidised major international players.

His domestic issues won't impact his EU career. Von Der Leyen, Michel are evidence of that. Rutte is smarter and more competent than them, but he will likely be vetoed by Poland, Hungary, Malta, Cyprus, France and Germany.

[Diouf]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

[Zinneke]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve. We thought he was done on thursday, but this guy is incredible is his ability to survive.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve.

It's about time the Netherlands got a PM who can't be compared to Harry Potter.

[freek]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

How do they wish to further expand euthanasia?

Currently the law requires that the patient's suffering is unbearable with no prospect of improvement. D66 basically wants to remove that requirement for those over 75 years old.  The proposal is that these people may request an assisted suicide, if they consider their life to be complete. Even if they are completely healthy.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

How do they wish to further expand euthanasia?

Currently the law requires that the patient's suffering is unbearable with no prospect of improvement. D66 basically wants to remove that requirement for those over 75 years old.  The proposal is that these people may request an assisted suicide, if they consider their life to be complete. Even if they are completely healthy.

Ughhh. Thank you.

[Zinneke]

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve.

It's about time the Netherlands got a PM who can't be compared to Harry Potter.

Honestly I prefer Rutte to Schippers, or pretty much the entire VVD. I imagine a lot of the Dutch left feel the same.

[Lord Halifax]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

How do they wish to further expand euthanasia?

Currently the law requires that the patient's suffering is unbearable with no prospect of improvement. D66 basically wants to remove that requirement for those over 75 years old.  The proposal is that these people may request an assisted suicide, if they consider their life to be complete. Even if they are completely healthy.

No chance of any prospective heirs abusing that of course.

[SunSt0rm]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve. We thought he was done on thursday, but this guy is incredible is his ability to survive.

If Rutte manages to survive this, it will be his greatest trick ever. Anyway, Rutte and VVD have reiterated that Rutte will be their Prime Minister candiate. And in the mean time, promiment VVD are putting given full support for Rutte and attacked Segers as betrayer.  So we are moving one step closer to gridlock.  


Also Peil has come up with the poll in the aftermath of the debate. VVD is losing 6 seats and it shows that electorally its better to keep Rutte than replacing him especially with a nobody. Also D66 is not suffering so far from the debacle and decision not to vote Rutte away.



Peil also polled whether parties should govern with Rutte. A very big majority of CDA and D66 voters do not want their party to join a new Rutte-led government

[Zinneke]

That JA21 figure though might be important.

[freek]

Parliament appointed Herman Tjeenk Willink (PvdA) as 'informateur'. He is a retired vice president of the Council of State (the King formally being the president), and has been informateur in 1994, 1999, 2010 & 2017. Tjeenk Willink was already involved in coalition negotiations in 1972 & 1977, as a civil servant.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve. We thought he was done on thursday, but this guy is incredible is his ability to survive.

If Rutte manages to survive this, it will be his greatest trick ever. Anyway, Rutte and VVD have reiterated that Rutte will be their Prime Minister candiate. And in the mean time, promiment VVD are putting given full support for Rutte and attacked Segers as betrayer.  So we are moving one step closer to gridlock.  


Also Peil has come up with the poll in the aftermath of the debate. VVD is losing 6 seats and it shows that electorally its better to keep Rutte than replacing him especially with a nobody. Also D66 is not suffering so far from the debacle and decision not to vote Rutte away.



Peil also polled whether parties should govern with Rutte. A very big majority of CDA and D66 voters do not want their party to join a new Rutte-led government

That figure for the SGP seems surprising, given that I thought they were a testimonial party. Evidently a lot of their voters don't think that.

[ottermax]

Why do DENK supporters seem to be in favor of a Rutte-led government, especially in comparison to the BIJ1 voters?