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January 20, 2021, 04:27:22 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Resignation Rutte-III, General Election on March 17, 2021
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Resignation Rutte-III, General Election on March 17, 2021  (Read 83077 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #800 on: January 13, 2021, 04:24:26 PM »

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Diouf
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« Reply #801 on: January 13, 2021, 05:02:31 PM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #802 on: January 13, 2021, 05:03:27 PM »



I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #803 on: January 13, 2021, 07:12:28 PM »



I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurant during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.
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njwes
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« Reply #804 on: January 13, 2021, 08:05:14 PM »



I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurant during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.

Is there any consensus on where the FvD supporters redistributed? It doesn't seem like any single party obviously benefitted, unless I'm just missing it
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Zinneke
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« Reply #805 on: January 13, 2021, 08:13:11 PM »



I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurant during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.

Is there any consensus on where the FvD supporters redistributed? It doesn't seem like any single party obviously benefitted, unless I'm just missing it

Given it looked like PVV were the ones heading for 3 seats rather than FvD only two years ago when there were provincial elections...it's quite obvious the bulk has gone (back) to Wilders.

The more intellectual Right populist types who don't like Baudet have found new homes in the form of Code Oranje and now JA21

I think the more obscure question is where have the 50+ voters gone. And there's an obviously dark joke there about Corona  but still...
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Zinneke
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« Reply #806 on: January 13, 2021, 08:20:06 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2021, 08:27:27 PM by Zinneke »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :


It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.

Basically the government could resign as a whole and them continue on as a current affairs government. But there's a fear that a minor party uses it as an electoral issue to leave the government altogether, and properly. They seem to have decided to stick together though : either we all resign and become current affairs or we all stay on.


2 Ministers are named in the report and one of them is Wopke Hoekstra. D66 are desperate to get rid of him politically by forcing "political consequences" upon the Cabinet and getting him to resign. Eric Wiebes is the other one.

Klaver Will submit a no confidence vote with support from SP and...PVV!
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Zinneke
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« Reply #807 on: January 13, 2021, 08:41:29 PM »



I haven't paid much attention to the Netherlands in a while...so what exactly happened to FVD? They were polling even with the big boys a while back, and now they are languishing alongside other minor parties. Was it just COVID? Infighting?

Yeah, great infighting and attempt to kick out Baudet from leadership after really stupid affair with him ranting about music in restaurantand the Jews during party meeting as I remember correctly. And some issues with a Neo-Nazi youth organisation and probably some more stuff we dont know.

FTFY
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freek
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« Reply #808 on: January 14, 2021, 03:37:40 AM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :


It'll depend a lot on issue salience. If American issues dominate who knows. Right now though the issues are mostly Corona with a little EU funds politics and environment (correct me if I'm wrong freek).
Also an important issue is something which is probably best translated as the 'tax benefits scandal'. In short: after some fraud cases regarding the handing out social benefits, very strict anti-fraud laws were implemented. Turns out, these laws had unintended consequences: harsh treatment of 'fraud cases' as a missing signature on a form or a mother who supplied her child on benefits with some groceries once in a while. In many cases, tens of thousands of euros had to be repaid.

Both the Tax Agency (which handed out the benefits and handled the fraud cases) and the government were not very helpful in supplying relevant information to those who were affected, and to parliament. This may have some consequences the following weeks, resignation of the government is not out of the picture.

Basically the government could resign as a whole and them continue on as a current affairs government. But there's a fear that a minor party uses it as an electoral issue to leave the government altogether, and properly. They seem to have decided to stick together though : either we all resign and become current affairs or we all stay on.


2 Ministers are named in the report and one of them is Wopke Hoekstra. D66 are desperate to get rid of him politically by forcing "political consequences" upon the Cabinet and getting him to resign. Eric Wiebes is the other one.

Klaver Will submit a no confidence vote with support from SP and...PVV!

There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.
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freek
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« Reply #809 on: January 14, 2021, 04:33:50 AM »

So it seems like the government is considering whether to resign over the report of some scandal?
I guess this will just be some symbolic admission of wrong before the election, as I doubt whether a new government will be in place before the election?

https://nos.nl/artikel/2364167-kabinet-praat-vrijdag-over-aftreden-of-aanblijven.html

Yeah I'm surprised this has blown up so quickly...freek described it here :

The scandal has been simmering for years now. Journalists and two MPs (Renske Leijten, SP and Pieter Omtzigt*, CDA) have been publicizing and questioning it very often. A parliamentary research committee just published their final report.

There are also many sides to it:
  • Strict anti fraud laws, at the request of parliament
  • The Tax Agency witch hunt for fraud cases. The selection of who to audit was questionable, dual nationality for example. Also, judgement was strongly prejudiced towards fraud, and those found guilty were automatically labeled as fraudster denying them leniency for repayments. People lost houses and jobs because of it.
  • The slow compensation of those who were wrongly accused of fraud and already repaid large sums of money.
  • The denial of responsibility on all sides. The Social Affairs Ministry (responsible for these social benefits) points towards the Finance Ministry, who points towards the Tax Agency who points towards the Social Affairs Ministry.
  • The misinformation of those who were affected, and parliament. Requested documents were deemed missing (or denied to exist), and leaked to journalists months after. If documents were found (sometimes months or years after), they were supplied almost completely blacked out, or labeled as 'secret'.
  • Related to the previous point: Rutte has the tendency to inform parliament as little as possible, moving most of his meetings within his government to informal ones without meeting notes so the Freedom of Information law does not apply.


* Omtzigt is a bit of a hypocrite though. He was the strongest proponent of strict anti-fraud laws 10 years ago.
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freek
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« Reply #810 on: January 14, 2021, 05:44:49 AM »


I think the more obscure question is where have the 50+ voters gone. And there's an obviously dark joke there about Corona  but still...
Yes, that's a difficult one. Problem with 50+ is that its voters came from all over the place (just like its leadership). My guess is that some will switch to PVV, but SP or CDA is also not out of the question.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #811 on: January 14, 2021, 06:16:05 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2021, 06:20:30 AM by Zinneke »

I get that it was simmering for years but the government looked secure and now parties are threatening to walk...we were so close to an actual functioning more than two party coalition reaching its end point.

So, are PvdA finally gonna draft Timmermans in I wonder...that leadership election should be interesting. Aboutaleb would also be a good choice.
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jeron
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« Reply #812 on: January 14, 2021, 10:50:48 AM »

I get that it was simmering for years but the government looked secure and now parties are threatening to walk...we were so close to an actual functioning more than two party coalition reaching its end point.

So, are PvdA finally gonna draft Timmermans in I wonder...that leadership election should be interesting. Aboutaleb would also be a good choice.

Timmermans already said he will stay in Brussels. Aboutaleb would be good choice but I doubt he wants it. He has just been appointed to a new term as mayor. Job Cohen proved that being a good mayor does not necessarily equate to being a good party leader. Other candidates could be one of the women, most likely Ploumen (former minister) or Arib.
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freek
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« Reply #813 on: January 14, 2021, 01:03:14 PM »

For those who are interested: The Guardian published an article about this scandal today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/dutch-government-faces-collapse-over-child-benefits-scandal
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #814 on: January 15, 2021, 07:39:51 AM »

Official: Government has resigned

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Mike88
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« Reply #815 on: January 15, 2021, 07:47:38 AM »

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #816 on: January 15, 2021, 07:50:03 AM »

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?
Very likely March 17th as planned
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freek
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« Reply #817 on: January 15, 2021, 08:17:16 AM »

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?
Very likely March 17th as planned
Yes, earlier elections than March 17 are not possible due to time constraints. The 4 week period for gathering declarations of support for new parties has already started, that can't be shortened.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #818 on: January 15, 2021, 08:30:43 AM »


If the election is still happening on the scheduled date, does this make any practical difference?
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freek
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« Reply #819 on: January 15, 2021, 08:54:09 AM »


If the election is still happening on the scheduled date, does this make any practical difference?

Hardly. The resignation is mostly symbolic. It will continue as a caretaker government, with a mandate to act on urgent matters (in particular anything Covid-related).

Minister Eric Wiebes (Economic Affairs & Climate) completely resigned. In the previous government he was the junior minister responsible for the Tax Agency. One of the other ministers will take over his portfolio, as acting minister.
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freek
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« Reply #820 on: January 18, 2021, 04:58:32 AM »


There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.
New PvdA leader is Lilianne Ploumen, until now #3 on the candidates list. Ploumen is an MP at the moment, and used to be the Foreign Trade minister 2012-2017.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #821 on: January 18, 2021, 08:27:28 AM »


There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.
New PvdA leader is Lilianne Ploumen, until now #3 on the candidates list. Ploumen is an MP at the moment, and used to be the Foreign Trade minister 2012-2017.

Could you tell maybe something more about her? Would her leadership bring some major changes?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #822 on: January 18, 2021, 09:41:21 AM »
« Edited: January 18, 2021, 09:47:21 AM by Zinneke »


There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.
New PvdA leader is Lilianne Ploumen, until now #3 on the candidates list. Ploumen is an MP at the moment, and used to be the Foreign Trade minister 2012-2017.

Could you tell maybe something more about her? Would her leadership bring some major changes?

Its a slightly more progressive choice than Asscher, the press says. She is also the daughter of a milkman and has a strong feminist tinge that could tap into electorates that were sizing up Kaag. But apart from that its been received in a lukewarm manner. PvdA had 3 very obvious people including one who led a campaign that, albeit with low turnout, they actually won.  The fact that they all turn it down says something...
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