Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

Polls will close in 15 mins.
Exit poll of Zuid Holland will be presented at 21:00 local time
On 21:20 exit polls of Noord Brabant will be shown
On 21:40 for Gelderland
Finally on 22:00 the exit polls of the Senate will be given

[SunSt0rm]

ZH exit poll compared to 2015
VVD 15.6% (-1.9%) 9 seats (-1)
PVV 6.8% (-7.4%) 4 seats (-4)
D66 8.0% (-4.8%) 4 seats (-3)
CDA 7.9% (-4.1%) 4 seats (-3)
PvdA 8.5% (-1.4%) 5 seats (-)
SP 4.3% (-5%) 2 seats (-3)
SGP 4.1% (-0.7%) 2 seats (-1)
CU 6.0% (+1.3%) 3 seats (-)
GL 8.4% (+3.7%) 5 seats (+2)
PvdD 4.5% (+0.4%) 2 seats (-)
50+ 5.1% (+1.4%) 3 seats (+1)
Denk 3.4% (+3.4%) 2 seats (+2)
FvD 16.1% (+16.1%) 10 seats (+10)

[SunSt0rm]

Noord Brabant exit poll
VVD 15.9% (-1.4%) 10 (-)
CDA 13.3% (-3.8%) 8 (-1)
SP 9.4% (-6.6%) 5 (-4)
PVV 7.8% (-4.9%) 4 (-3)
D66 8.9% (-3.1%) 5 seats (-2)
PvdA 6.6% (-1.4%) 4 seats (-)
GL 8.2% (+3.7%) 5 seats (+2)
50+ 4.6% (+0.3%) 2 seats (-)
PvdD 3.6% (+0.5%) 2 seats (-)
CU/SGP 2.4% (+0.4%) 1 seat (-)
Local 2.5% (+0.7%) 1 seat (-)
FvD 14.1% (+14.1%) 8 seats (+8)

Denk under threshold

[SunSt0rm]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

[Omega21]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

As for FvD, could someone tell me how Eurosceptic they are?

Are they like the FPÖ (critical but do not want to leave) or are they for an exit out of the EU altogether?

[SunSt0rm]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

As for FvD, could someone tell me how Eurosceptic they are?

Are they like the FPÖ (critical but do not want to leave) or are they for an exit out of the EU altogether?

Baudet is very hard eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU as soon as possible

Henk Otter, Future senate faction leader, is less eurosceptic who wants to reform the EU first before possibly leaving it

The EU election of 2019 will be interesting as FvD splitting views can be exposed

[DavidB.]

Yes. This is our evening. We won't be the biggest but it's good. 9-11 in the Senate. Doing watchparty with FVD friends now. Will do analysis tomorrow. Shift from left to right is clear. Also clear that we gained more from PVV and slightly less from VVD and CDA than perhaps expected. I "felt" that coming. PVV's floor is lower than many people think, evidenced by the local election in The Hague in 2018. Because they have no grassroots org.

[Omega21]

-So far its clearly that FvD is the big winner of the election. It could possibly be the largest party, although I expect the VVD will hold it.

-The government suffers losses. Small loses for VVD, decent loss for CDA and D66. CU very stable.

-SP and PVV are also the big losers. PVV losing lot of voters to FvD.

-Decent gains for GL, but I expected the gains be bigger tbh

Baudet is very hard eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU as soon as possible

Henk Otter, Future senate faction leader, is less eurosceptic who wants to reform the EU first before possibly leaving it

The EU election of 2019 will be interesting as FvD splitting views can be exposed
As for FvD, could someone tell me how Eurosceptic they are?

Are they like the FPÖ (critical but do not want to leave) or are they for an exit out of the EU altogether?

Thanks for the clarification!

I definitely wouldn't support someone who wants to leave ASAP, but I would always be in favour of reforms that lead to a more democratic EU.

And yeah, as you said, a split could be inevitable at some point if the party is split between people who want reform and people who want to leave outright.

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll Senate
VVD 14.0% (-1.9%) 12 seats (-1)
CDA 11.5% (-3.2%) 8 seats (-4)
D66 8.0% (-4.5%) 7 seats (-3)
PVV 7.7% (-4.0%) 6 seats (-3)
SP 5.6% (-6.1%) 4 seats (-5)
PvdA 8.6% (-1.5%) 7 seats (-1)
GL 10.1% (+4.7%) 8 seats (+4)
CU 5.1% (+1.1%) 4 seats (+1)
50+ 4.3% (+0.9%) 3 seats (+1)
PvdD 4.5% (+1.1%) 3 seats (+1)
SGP 2.5% (-0.3%) 1 seats (-1)
Locals 3.5% (-0.9%) 1 seats (-)
Denk 1.4% (+1.4%) 1 seats (+1)
Fvd 13.3% (+13.3%) 10 seats (+10)

Coalition 31 seats, 7 seats short of majority, so either PvdA or GL is already enough

[DavidB.]

Coalition and GL may have a majority in the Senate. Polls predicted this would not happen. It's because FVD gained more from PVV and less from coalition parties VVD and CDA.

[Diouf]

Could Wilders go more permanently to the US to pursue his think tank career there? Or will he continue fighting for hegemony on the right wing in Netherlands? As you mention, the party has little organiszation, so I guess it would largely falter without him.

[DavidB.]

Wilders seems teary-eyed. An air of defeat. He knows he's kind of done.

@Diouf: seems impossible to predict...

[DC Al Fine]

Wilders seems teary-eyed. An air of defeat. He knows he's kind of done.

@Diouf: seems impossible to predict...

Why is he done? Doesn't he run his party with an iron fist?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

It really seems that PVV will slowly start to die, but as for now something tell me to do not be hasty in "killing" them.

[Zinneke]

Wilders seems teary-eyed. An air of defeat. He knows he's kind of done.

@Diouf: seems impossible to predict...

Why is he done? Doesn't he run his party with an iron fist?

He is his party. His party is done. He himself has been in politics a long time now and has no succession to speak of.

[SunSt0rm]

Big chances that Forum will become the largest party. They are getting big results in the west (Noord Holland & Zuid Holland)

[H. Ross Peron]

Is there a reason why SP did so badly even compared to the other left parties? Who did they lose most of their votes to?

[SunSt0rm]

Is there a reason why SP did so badly even compared to the other left parties? Who did they lose most of their votes to?

They don't really have clear message, but rather an uninspiring protest party. The party is completely spliited on immigration, whereas their (potential) voters are much more conservative on social issues. The one who wants to be though on immigration and identity move to FvD, whereas the progressive voters go to GL.

[SunSt0rm]

90% counted

FvD 14.4% 13 seats
VVD 13.8% 12 seats
CDA 11.1% 9 seats
GL 10.7% 9 seats
PvdA 8.5% 7 seats
D66 7.7% 6 seats
PVV 7.0% 5 seats
SP 5.9% 4 seats
CU 4.8% 4 seats
PvdD 4.8% 3 seats
50+ 3.3% 2 seats
SGP 2.4% 1 seats
Denk 1.7% 0 seats
Locals 0 seats

VVD+CDA+D66+CU=31 seats, 7 seats short of a majority.

The seat distribution is not sure yet, even if the result is final. Parties are going to negotiate to distribute the left overs. Expect the coalition to distribute their seats as efficient as possible to maximize their seat total and other parties will try as well. The final result, however, wont differ more than 1 seat for each party.

Also notable FvD+VVD+CDA+PVV= 39 seats, which can telling for the next government.

[Zinneke]

I imagine Asscher will continue his love I with Rutte and the government will make deals with the PvdA.

[Zinneke]

Where the FvD rise came from vs 2017 Second Chamber election.

I am quite surprised how low the SP --> FvD score is. In Limburg for example where the FvD did well the PVV still held up decently and all the scores seem to suggest the big losers are SP. I wonder thus where all the SP voters have gone.

[TheSaint250]

Does FvD have a chance at forming a provincial government or at least being a part of one? Are there parties that have signaled openness to working with them or rejected working with them like with PVV?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How come Denk didn't get a seat? Turks not turning out?

[DavidB.]

What a beautiful evening this was, which will be remembered as a historic turning point in Dutch history. Despite all the efforts of the government and the left and the media with their lies, more than a million people voted for Forum voor Democratie and for a Dutch future. And the movement is only getting bigger.

The distribution for the Senate seems to be as follows, but may still change, depending on the deals that parties strike with each other to maximize their seat number and the way local parties decide to vote:

Forum voor Democratie 13 (+13)
VVD 12 (-1)
CDA 9 (-3)
GroenLinks 9 (+5)
PvdA 7 (-1)
D66 6 (-4)
PVV 5 (-4)
SP 4 (-5)
ChristenUnie 4 (+1)
PvdD 3 (+1)
50Plus 2 (+1)
SGP 1 (-1)
Independent Senate Group 0 (-1)
DENK 0

Government: 31 (-7) out of 75.

Left (SP-PvdA-GL-PvdD): 23 (no change)
Left/progressive (SP-PvdA-GL-PvdD-D66): 29 (-4)

Economic center-right (VVD-CDA-D66): 27 (-8)

Right (VVD-CDA-FVD-PVV-SGP): 40 (+4)
Center-right (VVD-CDA): 21 (-4)
Far-right (FVD-PVV): 18 (+9)

Christian (CDA-CU-SGP): 14 (-4)

The government has lost its majority, but lost fewer seats than expected. As a result, either GL or PvdA will suffice for the government to form a majority. Difficult, but at least if Rutte stays, they should probably be able to work things out on a case-by-case basis.

Some analysis by party:

Forum for Democracy are the big winner of the election, which is incredibly important symbolically: we will be able to center ourselves even more now. The party is the biggest in Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Flevoland and overperformed in the West compared to the other regions in the country. The pattern is quite similar to that of the LPF in 2002. It is clear that Forum are able to attract more higher educated and middle-class voters than the PVV, evidenced by better peformances in cities with many highly educated voters and by good performances in middle-class exurbia. Still, Forum perform best in suburbs and towns in the rural vicinity of big cities with a lot of lower middle-class voters. Edam-Volendam was expected: 40.7%. We received 24.9% in the white flight Rotterdam suburb of Nissewaard, a former PVV stronghold, and 27.9% in the depressing Rotterdam exurb of Hellevoetsluis (one of the best FVD municipalities in 2017 already). But we also ran up the score in some places where the PVV never did as well: for example, Christian fisherman town Katwijk (24.2%) and the VVD areas of the nouveau riche for which the PVV was too vulgar: 19.7% in Wassenaar, 15.4% in Laren and 17.3% in Blaricum. The party does markedly less well in "old money" areas: 11% and fourth place in Bloemendaal, 10.8% in Heemstede, 10.8% in Zeist, 10.3% in De Bilt. But what is most striking is that the overall FVD level was quite high across the country: it seems Forum attract people of all sorts of socio-economic backgrounds, resulting in a rather evenly spread vote. Outside the West, the party was strong in Western Noord-Brabant (the less traditional/religious, less well-off and more industrial part), Friesland (where the PVV never did well but gained relatively much in 2017) and the South of Limburg. I don't doubt we're going to see more maps with better insights than I can currently provide.

It is clear that FVD won less from CDA and especially VVD and more from the PVV than initially expected. The mechanism behind the vote transfers could be quite complicated. According to the Ipsos exit poll, SP -> Forum voter movement was limited, but looking at the results in South Limburg, where the PVV vote did hold up very well but FVD also did well, makes you think some SP voters did end up opting for Baudet.

Baudet didn't hold back in his epic 20-minute victory speech, in which he presented the metaphor of the Owl of Minerva flying out when the sun sets. This stands for Forum's rise in politics: it is almost too late, but now Forum is here to turn the tide. In the speech he also used some controversial tropes that have sparked the predictable and probably desired outrage, such as "boreal Europe" and "we are being called to the frontline."

Now we have a "problem". The people on the lists are capable and people who have earned their place, but we won many more seats than expected and may actually have trouble finding enough people for all the seats we're winning, as many people are candidates on both the Provincial and Senate lists or appear on the European list too. Forum leader Baudet today said the party wants to govern in Zuid-Holland and appointed former VVD leader Hans Wiegel as informateur. In Noord-Holland, the party has asked Paul Scheffer (PvdA) to do so. I don't think it's too likely the party will actually get to govern, but we'll see.

The VVD did not have such a bad night: again, its coalition partners are worse hit by the impopularity of the government than the VVD themselves. Losing first place for the first time since the European elections in 2014 won't cause them to lose sleep. Their vote held up well in Noord-Brabant, Gelderland and Zuid-Holland in particular, topping the poll in the former two provinces. That said, the VVD tend to perform much worse in second-order elections than in parliamentary elections (their 2015 performance wasn't that great either) and their result is still much lower than their general election result. The risk is, though, that VVD voters will find their way to Forum too once the government needs GL/PvdA support in the Senate. Forum's victory essentially pushes the government to seek support to their left and to become more left-wing, which makes VVD and CDA vulnerable.

Nobody talks about it, but this is an all-time low for the CDA in the Senate. But worse was expected. The problem for the CDA is structural, though. Especially in the West, the party seems to have lost many voters to Forum. In Zuid-Holland, the CDA lost 3 seats and ended up with four. It seems as if there may be a lot of people working in agriculture leaving for Forum: the climate agreement makes the CDA vulnerable to criticism. For instance, the Christian Democrats lost 8.7% in agricultural powerhouse Westland (FVD: 24.3%). The coalition is starting to take its toll for the CDA. The upside for them is that they still topped the poll in Limburg, Friesland, Overijssel and Zeeland, which is symbolically important.

More to follow.

[DavidB.]

How come Denk didn't get a seat? Turks not turning out?

Yeah, turnout was their problem. Especially among Muslim communities outside the big cities in the West, it seems. There are also too many provinces in which they just didn't manage to win even a single seat. In the end they only won three seats, one each in Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht.

Continuing the analysis by party:

GroenLinks was the second biggest winner of the election. The extreme focus on climate issues obviously worked in their favor, as does Jesse Klaver's ability to articulate his points clearly and convincingly. He has become more experienced and matured over the last two years. Nine seats is a good result, which will make them the go-to partner for the government. They also topped the poll in the province of Utrecht, running up the score in Utrecht city where the terror attack took place: GL received 27.8% of the vote, an increase of 13.2% on a strongly increased turnout.

Difficult at the same time, because cooperating with the government may hurt their credibility in opposing that government in the next general election. At the same time, they are not actually that much further than they were two years ago: 9 Senate seats is the equivalent of 18 seats in parliament, a modest increase of 4 compared to the current setup. Ultimately, GL fail to attract a sufficient number of left-wingers that are older, focus on being left rather than on being green, and who live outside the "progressive belt" or the medium and big-sized cities. If Jesse Klaver were PvdA leader, the PvdA would undoubtedly be a contender for first place.

D66 and GL are communicating vessels almost everywhere: most of the GL gains came directly from D66, with the remainder mostly coming from SP and PvdA.

The PvdA can sigh a breath of relief. They lost one seat compared to their already atrocious 2015 result and end up with 7, but it could have been much worse. This result probably saved Lodewijk Asscher for now and the party can look up again. Topping the poll in Groningen and Drenthe is probably good for the morale too. There is light at the end of the tunnel.

"Could have been worse" is also a good summary for the D66 election result. Climate policy being the top issue in this election helped them, because it forced the government to take positions VVD and CDA were uncomfortable with, debunking the idea that D66 were just tricked into accepting Rutte's right-wing coalition agreement. D66 also made sure a coal power plant in Amsterdam will be closed sooner than expected, which Rob Jetten campaigned on. D66 are also one of the most anti-Forum parties and less willing to apply "civility" like GL leader Klaver, who tends to prefer to focus on ideas.

The PVV are arguably the biggest loser of the election. Forum manages to catch all the attention, and a lot of people ("realists" as some of them like to call themselves on Twitter, but it has nothing to do with Morgenthau or Waltz) prefer FVD and PVV equally - to them it's like flipping a coin. But Baudet receives much more attention than Wilders: the latter is old news, and it's largely his own fault for always avoiding to make compromises and never managing to get anything done. Wilders appeared on tv teary-eyed and had nothing but positive words to say about Baudet and his victory. Nobody knows how long the PVV will still last. 5 Senate seats is the equivalent of 10 seats in parliament. They lost half their seats in Zeeland, Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Utrecht - mostly directly to Forum. Their vote held up better in Groningen, where they remained stable, and in Limburg, where they lost only two seats and still have seven, as many as Forum. In Southern Limburg, the PVV still came first in Sittard-Geleen (16.2% and 14.4% Forum), Brunssum (17.8% and 16% Forum), Landgraaf (21.6% and 14.6% Forum) and Kerkrade (PVV 20.7%, Forum 14.8%). Brabantic former smuggler village and undisputed number one PVV stronghold Rucphen also went for the PVV by 28.4% (Forum: 18.8%).

The SP were the biggest loser in absolute terms: from 9 to 4 seats, a loss of five. The 2015 provincial election was their second best election ever (after the 2006 GE) and came rather unexpected. This loss proves their failure to bind left-wingers to them and their organization. SP leader Marijnissen partly blames it on turnout, but they are also stuck between a rock and a hard place on immigration: actual skeptics of immigration who prioritize this issue will always vote for Forum or PVV, but under the Meyer/Marijnissen leadership the party did move right on immigration at least in terms of rhetoric, which has been off-putting to left-wing demographics with pro-immigration views. Judging by the local results I get the sense that some former SP voters did vote for FVD this time, particularly in the south, though the Ipsos exit poll (which was relatively inaccurate) casts doubt on this.

The ChristenUnie won a seat and seem to be able to successfully avoid the "Rutte coalition partner" curse. The secret: being open and honest about what they can and cannot achieve. They do have an electorate that will not walk away easily, but are also very transparent in difficult times (deportations of children, the abolishment of the dividend tax): they show their voters and the country why they make certain decisions, how they achieve certain things and how they cannot achieve other things, and how it affects them personally. A place where CU did lose a lot: Urk, where there is a lot of anger about Agriculture Minister Schouten (CU)'s defeat in Brussels regarding the ban on pulse fishing and where there were some ethnic tensions recently. CU lost 9.4% and came third on the former island with 17.3%, behind SGP (40.3%, -5%) and newcomer Forum (17.6%).

The PvdD continue their slow but steady way up: 1 seat in 2011, 2 in 2015 and 3 in 2019. They did particularly well in Amsterdam this time, where they came fifth with 8.8% - before Forum. The PvdD enter the Provincial States in Zeeland and Drenthe, gained a seat in Limburg, but lost a seat in Groningen.

The SGP also experienced a seat loss, I think the first one since Van der Staaij took over the party. The most logical reason for this loss is Forum's participation: there is a small number of voters who are conservative enough to vote for the SGP without actually being part of their own "pillar". Forum are sufficiently reactionary and nationalist for these people to be an attractive alternative. I am one of those who voted SGP in PS2015 and FVD in PS2019. It is interesting to see Forum did rather well in the Bible Belt - a well-known Dutch psephologist coined the term "LPF with the Bible" to indicate the Forum voting pattern. The general turnout increase probably hurt the SGP too. Losing one seat in populous Zuid-Holland and one in Utrecht (and one in Flevoland) caused the SGP to miss out on their second seat, which they gained in 2015, by a hair.

This wasn't DENK's election. Apart from the obvious laughter about DENK standing in provinces like Drenthe and Zeeland, connected to the more serious observation that provinces essentially work as electoral districts for the Senate and the DENK vote is spread in an unfortunate way for them, NIDA's participation in the most populous provinces NH and ZH didn't help either. NIDA missed out on seats, but took enough votes to deny DENK a Senate seat. Selçuk Öztürk, DENK's top candidate for the Senate, does not even speak acceptable Dutch, so I regard this as a good thing. Thank you, NIDA, very cool!

DENK did enter the PS in NH, ZH and Utrecht with one seat. See also my above response to Crabcake: it seems as if potential DENK voters outside Amsterdam, Rotterdam (+suburbs) and The Hague just couldn't be bothered to vote.