Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Zinneke]

Pretty interesting maps of local election results in the 1930s...

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/achtergrond/2018/12/gemeenteraadsverkiezingen-in-de-jaren-dertig

[DC Al Fine]

This might be a silly question for the Netherlands, but are there any underserved demographics that a new party could win over fairly easily?

[DavidB.]

I don't think so, not here...

The election will take place tomorrow. Polls will open at 7:30 and close at 21:00. I will be counting votes, so no real-time results from me. I've never been this unexcited for an election. Only looking forward to seeing D66 lose and lose bigly in the big cities. Unfortunately many of these votes will end up with GL.

Referendum prediction:
For: 60%
Against: 40%
Turnout: 45%

[DavidB.]

On the local elections in the four biggest cities:

Amsterdam was historically notoriously red: the PvdA led the local government from the 1910s till 2014. As the white working class moved out in the 70s and 80s, however, the specific type of "red" changed, and PvdA voters were both "bougie" types and (descendants of) immigrants. In 2014 the PvdA lost spectacularly, both because of its unpopularity in the national government but definitely also because of locally-based PvdA fatigue in the capital and a number of disastrously expensive projects -- most importantly the new subway line which was supposed to open in 2007 or so but will now open this year and caused houses in the historical center to prolapse. For the past four years, the city government was led by a very big D66, who had become the big winner in 2014, together with junior partners VVD and SP, and there is quite some discontent with the way D66 have handled things. The biggest issues right now are connected, namely the lack of housing (prices in Amsterdam have increased to a level much higher than before the crisis) and the extreme increase of tourists, who often use Airbnb. Kajsa Ollongren, who was an alderman (alderwoman?) before she became Minister of the Interior in the Rutte-III government, especially receives a lot of criticism for essentially ignoring this issue for years while all stakeholders were telling her to do something. Another D66 alderman just did nothing. The SP's performance is generally seen as fine, to the extent that this is possible in a government with D66 and VVD; as for the VVD, there was not much criticism, but suddenly a sh**tstorm has targeted VVD leader and alderman Eric van der Burg, who, like most of the VVD Amsterdam, is clearly on the left of the party and once said "the more asylum seekers, the merrier." Last weekend, former national VVD party leader (in the 90s) and European Commissioner Frits Bolkestein stated that the VVD Amsterdam had been "way too left-wing for way too long" and said he would not vote for Van der Burg but for a more right-wing candidate at a lower spot on the list; yesterday, two days before the election, the VVD youth wing in Amsterdam came with a really critical press statement in which they said that they have no confidence in Van der Burg.

This election will be a two-horse race between GroenLinks and D66, with GroenLinks stating they reject the "neoliberal" D66-VVD housing policies. GL leader Rutger Groot Wassink is on the left of the party and recently had a conflict with national party leader Jesse Klaver on marching against "racism on the council" (implicitly referring to FvD) in a protest organized by Antifa-affiliated groups. Klaver wanted to ban him from doing so.  In the end he did march but did not sign the statement published by the groups. Coalition formation will be difficult, as the council will be very fragmented, with newcomers FvD (right-wing populists), DENK (basically the PVV but for Muslims) and BIJ1 (radical intersectionalists) sure to win seats and GL possibly in the drivers' seat. D66 Amsterdam is rather "bougie" and would rather cooperate with the VVD than with three left-wing parties or so. But GL-D66-PvdA should be close to a majority, so that might be feasible too -- but I wouldn't count on it.

Rotterdam is your classic blue-collar, historically super red port city: "the money is earned in Rotterdam, decided on in The Hague and spent in Amsterdam", Rotterdammers say. But Rotterdam is also the city of the Pim Fortuyn revolution in 2002: his brief political journey started by winning a staggering 35% of the vote in the 2002 local council election with his party Leefbaar ("Livable", it makes more sense in Dutch but only slightly so) Rotterdam. Fortuyn, of course, was killed a few months later, but Leefbaar lives on, got just under 30 percent of the vote and 14 seats in 2006, 2010 and 2014, and participated in the government from 2002 till 2006 and from 2014 onward. Due to the collapse of the PvdA in 2014, Leefbaar will by default be the largest party in 2018 as well; due to the fact that the PVV will now stand in Rotterdam it was expected that they would be losing seats to them and end up in the single digits, but the PVV have managed to screw up so thoroughly that they might only win one or two seats and Leefbaar should still get around 25% of the vote.

The coalition formation process is going to be hell. GL, SP, PvdA and Islamic party NIDA had started a "Left Alliance" to receive the initiative to form a government instead of "polarizing" Leefbaar, but this alliance disbanded after an old NIDA tweet in which Israel was compared to ISIS went viral and NIDA refused to distance themselves from it. The current coalition consists of Leefbaar, D66 and CDA, but renewed cooperation between Leefbaar and D66 will be difficult: Leefbaar had to move to the right in terms of rhetoric due to the fact that the PVV is standing and due to their participation in government (a Leefbaar alderman building asylum seeker facilities during the migrant crisis was painful), while D66 Rotterdam have moved to the left. The D66 and the VVD, led by a young entrepreneur who is supposed to be a hottie (judge for yourselves) with obvious national ambitions, will be kingmakers. The formation might take a long time and involve a lot of parties.

The Hague already is a fragmented mess with 15 parties on the council. In 2014, D66 became the largest party and formed a government together with PvdA, VVD, CDA and the local City Party, whose number one promise was that they would stop a new expensive cultural center from being built only to do a 180 right after the election. This time, D66, VVD or local Group De Mos will become the biggest party and receive the initiative to form a government. Group De Mos is led by former PVV MP Richard de Mos who came to dislike the PVV's extremism and now successfully runs a party with a working-class profile, slightly law-and-order oriented but much less so than Leefbaar in Rotterdam, focused on reducing bureaucracy for local entrepreneurs. Former D66 councilman Rachid Guernaoui is #2 on De Mos' list. Like the SP, they have the reputation to help people and entrepreneurs out if they have problems with the municipality. If De Mos becomes the largest, a coalition with D66, VVD and CDA could perhaps be formed. Groep De Mos aren't nearly as right-wing or polarizing as Leefbaar, so such cooperation should be possible.

Utrecht is slightly less interesting politically, basically being little Amsterdam (D66-GL-VVD government, GL will probably win this time) but with a smaller PvdA these days (younger population).

[Harlow]

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Yes, sounds just like the PVV but for Muslims...

[DavidB.]

That's what they say, yes. Please don't comment if you know nothing.

[Harlow]

It just seems like a rather extreme comment to make without expanding upon the reasoning behind it.

[DavidB.]

It just seems like a rather extreme comment to make without expanding upon the reasoning behind it.

I tried to make the post concise. Besides, I and other posters have been making plenty of posts about the phenonenon of DENK on this forum. It is also fine for you to ask about about DENK, of course. But if you're going to lazily translate something from their own web page and use that as "evidence" against my point, then I am going to respond flippantly.

DENK formulate their points in an inclusive way on paper, but their tactics in parliament are disliked across the political spectrum, with Speaker of Parliament Khadija Arib (Labour) having condemned these tactics many times. DENK have a habit of making videos of minority MPs in other parties who dare vote against DENK proposals and posting these videos on Facebook, often without context, to "expose" these MPs. Recently, DENK leader Kuzu was on Turkish tv calling five MPs with a Turkish background traitors for voting to recognize the Armenian genocide as a genocide; these five MPs were subsequently swarmed with death threats. They have also used fake accounts on Facebook to "wolfpack" people in order to have them stop criticize DENK. Journalists are often not welcome at events where most others (except PVV, FvD) do welcome them. And only this week DENK spread WhatsApp messages among the "base" with a comparison of DENK to other parties on a range of issues that isn't mentioned as openly elsewhere: DENK would be the only party in favor of providing security to mosques, "halal mortgages", "banning flags of terrorist organizations (PKK)", headscarves in the police, etc. In itself it is completely legitimate for DENK to have these views, of course, but it is striking how their communication is much more direct and different to the base than in public. Other Muslim parties, such as NIDA Rotterdam, did not want to associate themselves with DENK, because DENK was considered to be too polarizing whereas NIDA aims not to engage in that sort of politics. And of course there was the issue with Sylvana Simons, a well-known Dutch black activist who was a candidate for DENK but resigned because she was told not to talk about women's and LGBT rights too much. And those are just a few points.

[MaxQue]

It just seems like a rather extreme comment to make without expanding upon the reasoning behind it.

DENK is pretty much a Erdogan front.

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout for local election and referendum in the big cities are roughly equal so far.
The Hague 14.5% for local and 13% for referendum
Rotterdam 14.6% for local and 15% for referendum
Utrecht 16.2% for local and 16% for referendum

Overal, the turnout for the local election will be a bit higher than the turnout for the referendum simply because in some places only the referendum vote is held which will have a lower turnout in general


Also agree on David, on paper Denk seems to be ok but in practice they are a turkish nationalist and pro-Erdogan party who only care about their own base

[DavidB.]

Problems in Amsterdam, where polling station workers in a precinct in West apparently "advise" Turkish voters to vote for DENK and accompany them in the voting booth, and in Nijmegen, where many people received four instead of two voting cards, allowing them to vote twice. Turnout is apparently really high in Amsterdam, where BIJ1, DENK and FvD have caused the campaign to be highly polarized, but similar to the 2014 election in the other big cities.

https://twitter.com/goossensjohan/status/976449247049547777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&...

Just voted in parliament, for Group De Mos and against the Law on the Intelligence and Security Services.

[Harlow]

It just seems like a rather extreme comment to make without expanding upon the reasoning behind it.

I tried to make the post concise. Besides, I and other posters have been making plenty of posts about the phenonenon of DENK on this forum. It is also fine for you to ask about about DENK, of course. But if you're going to lazily translate something from their own web page and use that as "evidence" against my point, then I am going to respond flippantly.

DENK formulate their points in an inclusive way on paper, but their tactics in parliament are disliked across the political spectrum, with Speaker of Parliament Khadija Arib (Labour) having condemned these tactics many times. DENK have a habit of making videos of minority MPs in other parties who dare vote against DENK proposals and posting these videos on Facebook, often without context, to "expose" these MPs. Recently, DENK leader Kuzu was on Turkish tv calling five MPs with a Turkish background traitors for voting to recognize the Armenian genocide as a genocide; these five MPs were subsequently swarmed with death threats. They have also used fake accounts on Facebook to "wolfpack" people in order to have them stop criticize DENK. Journalists are often not welcome at events where most others (except PVV, FvD) do welcome them. And only this week DENK spread WhatsApp messages among the "base" with a comparison of DENK to other parties on a range of issues that isn't mentioned as openly elsewhere: DENK would be the only party in favor of providing security to mosques, "halal mortgages", "banning flags of terrorist organizations (PKK)", headscarves in the police, etc. In itself it is completely legitimate for DENK to have these views, of course, but it is striking how their communication is much more direct and different to the base than in public. Other Muslim parties, such as NIDA Rotterdam, did not want to associate themselves with DENK, because DENK was considered to be too polarizing whereas NIDA aims not to engage in that sort of politics. And of course there was the issue with Sylvana Simons, a well-known Dutch black activist who was a candidate for DENK but resigned because she was told not to talk about women's and LGBT rights too much. And those are just a few points.

Sure, I overstepped my boundaries and made assumptions about things. I appreciate the response.

[DavidB.]

^ All good, thank you for your response.

16:30: referendum turnout 26.6% in Rotterdam, 24.6% in The Hague and 30% in Utrecht. As expected, the 30% threshold for the referendum result to be valid will therefore easily be reached. The referendum map will be really interesting.

In Maastricht, turnout for the local election was 25% and turnout for the referendum 26% at 16:30. As non-Dutch EU nationals are eligible to vote in the local elections but not in the referendum, and as they turn out at a lower rate than Dutch people, turnout for the referendum might end up slightly higher than turnout for the local election in the big cities (and middle-sized cities with many internationals, such as Maastricht), where many non-Dutch EU nationals live.

[DC Al Fine]

David, where is your profile if the all-important Urk council race?

[mvd10]

Urk actually has been trending hard to the SGP the past decade. Probably a result of the CDA collapse and the increased importance of issues like the EU and immigration, and on those issues the leftish CU doesn't align with the conservative fishers in Urk. Maybe the ban on electric pulse fishing will play a role. French fishers ran a campaign filled with unscientific and unsubstantiated arguments against electric pulse fishing and because the French fishers succeeded in their campaign Dutch fishers who successfully invested in these technologies are screwed. I imagine this doesn't help the EU in Urk. But Urk doesn't have a SGP majority in the council btw, there are quite a lot of local parties there. They don't even have a SGP mayor (CDA).

[DavidB.]

The only PVV candidate on Urk has the fash haircut, and the local party that's big on the council there are exactly as Christian like the SGP. That's what I know about the race there. And, indeed, it is trending SGP.

At 18:00, turnout for the local election in The Hague was 33.8% compared to 38% in 2014. In Rotterdam, turnout was 32.1%, higher than four years ago, when it was 31%. Both places are probably not going to reach 50% this time. Amsterdam had 35% turnout compared to 27.5% in 2014, so much higher this time.

[mvd10]

This is one of DENK's candidates in Utrecht. Notice anything strange?



I really wonder why he didn't just join GL. GL Amsterdam leader Groot Wassink is really left-wing so I'm sure GL Utrecht would have accepted someone as #woke as Jelle Bouwhuis lol.

[_]

>DENK
>White

Wait what?

[njwes]

...the VVD, led by a young entrepreneur who is supposed to be a hottie (judge for yourselves)

Sort of hot for a politician, maybe, but still wouldn't hit it.


Is there any single site with election returns from across the country where we could follow? Or is it all fragmented?

[DavidB.]

Is there any single site with election returns from across the country where we could follow? Or is it all fragmented?

Nos.nl will have a clickable map with the returns from all municipalities.

[DC Al Fine]

Urk actually has been trending hard to the SGP the past decade. Probably a result of the CDA collapse and the increased importance of issues like the EU and immigration, and on those issues the leftish CU doesn't align with the conservative fishers in Urk. Maybe the ban on electric pulse fishing will play a role. French fishers ran a campaign filled with unscientific and unsubstantiated arguments against electric pulse fishing and because the French fishers succeeded in their campaign Dutch fishers who successfully invested in these technologies are screwed. I imagine this doesn't help the EU in Urk. But Urk doesn't have a SGP majority in the council btw, there are quite a lot of local parties there. They don't even have a SGP mayor (CDA).

Thanks mvd and David. I was joking and wasn't expecting a response but your answers are great

[SunSt0rm]

Exit polls will be held in 6 cities tonight. Especially Rotterdam, Amsterdam and Utrecht will be interesting. There will not be a country-wide exit poll for the local election

[DavidB.]

Looks like the PVV font to me. Anyhow, I am genuinely interested to see whether the exit polls will work this time, and whether Dionne Stax will still present them. Also lol @ the inclusion of Weert and Emmen. Obvious that they don't want to come across as Randstad-centric.

Meanwhile, NRC Handelsblad and De Telegraaf journalists have been denied entry to the DENK event.

[mvd10]

...the VVD, led by a young entrepreneur who is supposed to be a hottie (judge for yourselves)

Sort of hot for a politician, maybe, but still wouldn't hit it.


Is there any single site with election returns from across the country where we could follow? Or is it all fragmented?

https://maps.nrc.nl/tk2017dev/tk2017sb.php

This is a map of voting by precinct in 2017, and here is the NOS map for the 2017 general election if you want reference material. The NOS probably will have a liveblog or a livestream.

I assume the intelligence services law will win by a decent margin. There is a huge age divide (young voters oppose, older voters support) but younger voters often don't turn out and even then a sizable amount of young voters supports it or don't care.

I think it'd be interesting to see how well GL does in Amsterdam. Groot Wassink (GL leader) is really left-wing and he tried hard to make this election about housing. Not that it matters since both D66 (the more liberal/right-wing party on housing) and GL (vocally left-wing) likely will be in the next coalition.

[mvd10]

Given that Rotterdam will be the first exit poll, here are the 2014 Rotterdam results in percentages, compared to national result:

Leefbaar 27.5% (local party)
PvdA 15.8% (10.3%)
D66 12.7% (12.1%)
SP 10.5% (6.6%)
VVD 7.5% (12.2%)
CDA 5.9% (14.4%)
GL 4.9% (5.4%)
NIDA 4.8% (local party)
CU-SGP 3.2% (6.0%)
PvdD 2.5% (0.5%)

Bear in mind that the national numbers may be misleading since some parties participate in nearly all municipalities while other parties skip a bunch of municipalities.