Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[njwes]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

[Diouf]

VVD is a bit down in the first two results from northern islands, but other than that, the party movements mostly mirror the exit poll. Apparently voting areas with more than 100% turnout due to tourists.

[Oryxslayer]

So question time: these hypothetical results don't exactly make things easy for Senate math. That's because parties representing 32 Senators we can say right now will probably not from parties invited to govt talks, and the the remaining 43 are in a peculiar alignment. Weirdly, the best shot at a senate coalition is VVD+D66+CDA+GL which is 36/75, but I have a hard time seeing that get negotiated. Probably no senate majority is possible without an obtuse coalition, or unless the coalition does their math in a way that treats the populist right as a 'third' block, lowing their target total.

[SunSt0rm]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

Volt definetly got support there, but they mostly like GL and other left wing parties. And they expected the Left to do better than this horrific result

Edit: oh nvm, I was looking at the wrong echochamber

[SunSt0rm]

VVD is a bit down in the first two results from northern islands, but other than that, the party movements mostly mirror the exit poll. Apparently voting areas with more than 100% turnout due to tourists.

I wouldn't take these results too seriously as turnout is usually above 100% because of tourism

[Zinneke]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

The pic is from 4chan, and they were genuinely seeing Baudet get 20 seats.

[Double Carpet]

Do we think first two results are outliers, or is it significant that VVD down 3% in both but +3 seats in 9.45 exit poll?

[SunSt0rm]

Do we think first two results are outliers, or is it significant that VVD down 3% in both but +3 seats in 9.45 exit poll?

There are not representative for the final result as these islands usually have above 100% turnout because of tourism. The current voters are not the same as the voters of 4 years ago

[Oryxslayer]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

The pic is from 4chan, and they were genuinely seeing Baudet get 20 seats.

4chan is a hive of authoritarian rightists, reddit is full of young activists and champagne socialists, and the sun rises in the east.

[njwes]

Don't lump all the good people of 4chan together with the denizens of /pol/!

[Logical]

/nederdraad/ on /int/ seems pretty pleased with the D66 surge. Saw some of them vote for BIJ1 earlier in the day too, although it's 4chan so you can never tell when one is being serious or ironic.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/pbergsen/status/1372296806961446918

/nederdraad/ on /int/ seems pretty pleased with the D66 surge. Saw some of them vote for BIJ1 earlier in the day too, although it's 4chan so you can never tell when one is being serious or ironic.

They are trolling 100%

[Diouf]

In the first two small results, the small party projection also seems credible. Volt on 3.7%, JA21 at 2.3%, BIJ1 at 1.1% and BBB at 1.1%. The closest potential new parties in parliament are Code Oranje at 0.4% and Pirates at 0.3%. Splinter only at 0.2%

[Diouf]

Have all the other vote counters fallen asleep?

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/L_deJonge/status/1372299506159607809

Look at those non-voters...unbelievable that Wilders didnt try to surf on the anti-lockdown wave.

[SunSt0rm]

https://twitter.com/L_deJonge/status/1372299506159607809

Look at those non-voters...unbelievable that Wilders didnt try to surf on the anti-lockdown wave.

I don't know if Wilders is really wrong though. 2 Years ago, FvD was the largest party and people were questioning the existance of the PVV. But FvD icollapsed when Covid hit them, and PVV attracted a lot of these votes from FvD by taking Covid more seriously than FvD. PVV is still much bigger than FvD

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/L_deJonge/status/1372299506159607809

Look at those non-voters...unbelievable that Wilders didnt try to surf on the anti-lockdown wave.

I don't know if Wilders is really wrong though. 2 Years ago, FvD was the largest party and people were questioning the existance of the PVV. But FvD icollapsed when Covid hit them, and PVV attracted a lot of these votes from FvD by taking Covid more seriously than FvD. PVV is still much bigger than FvD

But increasingly Wilders had seen the polls and started arguing more about ending lockdown etc. I agree at the start FvD looked silly but by the end they were getting a big campaign going and focusing on the anti-lockdown sentiment and it paid off. Really Wilders should have finished Baudet off and taken his transfers to "beat" Kaag. Finishing second again would have given him more ammo as the leader of the opposition who is constantly ignored.

[Alcibiades]

Why were D66 so underestimated in the final polls of the campaign?

[Zinneke]

Why were D66 so underestimated in the final polls of the campaign?

The final polls picked up a Kaag surge, and the media discourse the last week was all about the "battle for second place", which likely led to a lot of strategic voting, knowing Rutte would likely lead the outgoing coalition.

[SunSt0rm]

Why were D66 so underestimated in the final polls of the campaign?

I dont necessary think D66 is really underestimated by the polls, the final polls showed that D66 was really surging, but these polls didn't account for the movement yesterday or today. Also there was a race for 2nd place and probably some left wing voters voted tactically for D66 to get them 2nd

[Pick Up the Phone]

No too unhappy about the results/exit polls so far. Love both the D66 surge (Kaag!) and the prospect of Wilders losing seats.

[Oryxslayer]

[SunSt0rm]

Percentage calculation for the second exit poll.

Its just precinct, I believe the NOS say the precinct was supposed to be bellwether last time.

[Oryxslayer]

Rozendaal is in, VVD still lead. I only note this because the municipality was in the top 15 D66 muni's in 2017, but its one of the areas where the D66 vote is tied to the VVD rather than the left.

[SunSt0rm]

Rozendaal is in, VVD still lead. I only not this because the municipality was in the top 15 D66 muni's in 2017, but its one of the areas where the D66 vote is tied to the VVD rather than the left.

Affluent suburbs indeed where the fight is more between VVD and D66