Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Oryxslayer]

D66 up 8 to 27 in exit poll!

[Mike88]

Look at that D66 numbers.

[tomhguy]

Final Prediction:
VVD - 33
PVV - 21
D66 - 21
CDA - 17
SP - 12
PvdA - 10
GL - 9
CU -6
PvdD - 5
FvD - 5
SGP - 3

[SunSt0rm]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

[tomhguy]

Oh sh**t typed this after exit poll came out - looks like I was wrong on PVV and SP

[Oryxslayer]

Now thats a Social Liberal surge. D66, VOLT, and BIJI all surging at the expense of SP, GL, CDA.

[Zinneke]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

[jeron]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

[Dereich]

I'm sure this isn't exactly how PvdA expected that reclaiming the position of largest party of the left would look.

[Zinneke]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

Yup, but like Laki alludes to, they are just re conducting Rutte to power.

PvdA needs to get their act together. They should be competing on that ground as they used to. They are nowhere now.

[Mike88]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

[njwes]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Braindead liberals love generic neoliberalism?

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

[tomhguy]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

I think they were surging late in the campaign - seen as a sensible choice for many pro-European voters and performed well in the debates. I don't know exactly, I've just been watching this election from abroad though.

[Oryxslayer]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

Next question is what the map will look like with D66 being number two. All the cities and university towns will probably be green, but then you got areas in Holland which both D66 and VVD do well in. The post-PvdA Friesland mess probably won't be cleaned up.

[Zinneke]

The guy on the NOS is making a good point : the fact that most parties swung massively left on the economy helped D66 because they could focus on their issues and not be exposed as aiding and abetting a right-wing government.

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaagmania too

[jeron]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

No.

[SunSt0rm]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

Next question is what the map will look like with D66 being number two. All the cities and university towns will probably be green, but then you got areas in Holland which both D66 and VVD do well in. The post-PvdA Friesland mess probably won't be cleaned up.

Probably some (non blue collar) cities and maybe even competing with VVD in some affluent suburban

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Yes, the latter part is especially true, because I know who someone who did... But i said to him it didn't make sense, because they will be in the government anyway, and if you doubt between left-wing parties and D66 because tactically voting for D66 is supposedly better because you would push the government to the left, but this bad result for the left-wing parties, means D66 has basically no reason to even consider what the left really wants, as they're absolutely decimated. I really don't get that strategy.

ALso, according to polling, some VVD'ers also went to D66 because they thought VVD is going to win anyway, and they wanted a stronger voice for D66 in that government or more emphasis on left-wing policies. (center-left or social liberal policies, not really left-wing).

[Mike88]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

Yes, but it happened. I know it doesn't make sense, but people think a larger D66 in the government might push the government itself left-wing, but i don't get the strategy / thinking behind that.

[Zinneke]

We are missing another big deal here : D66 have the cleanest hands out of many of the top parties when it comes to the benefits scandal.

Also, as the NOS pundit said, they get strategic votes from right and left. The whole "race for second place [behind Rutte]" played a part I think. That was the media excitement in the last week.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the strong Finance Minister position

Purple Plus now won't happen, there's no reason for VVD/D66/CDA to invite other parties. GL/PvdA are both decimated.

Perhaps... they could invite Volt into the government, i mean. If D66 plays it very smart, they should get Volt into the government (or block negotiations), but strategically it makes more sense to not invite GL for D66. (and not consider PvdA as well).

[Oryxslayer]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

yes, but if we treat the exit poll as perfectly accurate, then VVD-D66 might have the opportunity to look for other coalitions members. Senate math and the D66 could prefer different partners.