Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372234051411709954?s=20

[jeron]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372234051411709954?s=20

Turnout at 74% (19:45)

[Mike88]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

[jeron]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

Bad news for the smaller parties like Bij1 or Code Oranje as they will need more votes to get a seat

[Zinneke]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

[Oryxslayer]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

Bad news for the smaller parties like Bij1 or Code Oranje as they will need more votes to get a seat

Which of course is interesting since every time I peaked at this thread it was a VVD snooze-fest of a lead. Turnout matching 2017 with the pandemic suggests excitement to vote for...somebody, and that probably isn't a single-issue minor party.

[Diouf]

Would be an interesting addition to the Dutch left if Splinter could get in. As I understand, their MP has also played a quite significant role in parliament in promoting the "health care bonus", a pay rise for health care workers, as well as keeping the government to account on the child care scandal.

[Zinneke]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

Bad news for the smaller parties like Bij1 or Code Oranje as they will need more votes to get a seat

Which of course is interesting since every time I peaked at this thread it was a VVD snooze-fest of a lead. Turnout matching 2017 with the pandemic suggests excitement to vote for...somebody, and that probably isn't a single-issue minor party.

There were a lot of undecideds that do not seem to have even considered VVD and were mainly sizing up left-of-center parties or the far right, where the competition lies.  

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/SLdeLange/status/1372266569229828109

[SunSt0rm]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Maurice De Hond is already wrong about turnout as he predicted it would be clearly lower and could be below 70%. I am wondering whats motivating voters a lot this time, for stability like in 2017 when they backed Rutte? Kaagmentum? people coming out to vote against lockdowns? or voters motivated to vote for new parties? or probably a combination of all

D66 is very popular among students and probably the most popular party this year together with GL. D66 has very successfully frame themself as the party of education and thus students even though some of their plans hurt students like abolishing the student finance (GL supported too though). Many students are progressive, care about climate change, cosmopolitan, but not necessary left wing economics. I expect D66 will sweep the university cities as GL is not doing well. Also expect Volt to be strong at university cities

[jeron]

Would be an interesting addition to the Dutch left if Splinter could get in. As I understand, their MP has also played a quite significant role in parliament in promoting the "health care bonus", a pay rise for health care workers, as well as keeping the government to account on the child care scandal.

Only the health care bonus. She played no prominent role in the child care scandal. Frankly, i have no idea what yhis party would add to the political spectrum

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency. I cant imagjne anyone else winning Wagningen or Leiden of the polls were correct

[Oryxslayer]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.


I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

I mean that's just the 2017 map with some swing calculations done and nothing more, isn't it? I recognize the breakdown cause I was working with Dutch GIS this weekend. So yeah, not going to be that accurate because universal swing even when weighted a bit is trash - and that's BEFORE you question the data we are based these hypothetical swings on. And D66 did well in the University areas last time, in fact a lot of the better non-suburban D66/GL areas had them getting similar results.

[Zinneke]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

[SunSt0rm]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Studiebeurs was abolished during Rutte-II not Rutte-III (D66 indeed supported it). Volt will definetely eat up the D66 vote, but not BIJ1 and its questionable Volt is much more left-wing than D66. D66 may be post-materialis and may be somewhat woke, but its voters are also very pragmatic. Another strong constituency of D66 are affluent suburban where they more compete with the VVD. The idealist post-materalis and more woke party is GL that is competing more with BIJ1 for the most wokish voters.

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Maybe but Bij1 attracts other people, at least time Bij1 only did particularly well in Amsterdam Southeast. I don't know anyone who a)likes ms Simons, or b) would be willing to vote for her

[SunSt0rm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy4snoK_S0M

Livestream if people are interested

[jeron]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Studiebeurs was abolished during Rutte-II not Rutte-III (D66 indeed supported it). Volt will definetely eat up the D66 vote, but not BIJ1 and its questionable Volt is much more left-wing than D66. D66 may be post-materialis and may be somewhat woke, but its voters are also pragmatic. Another strong constituency of D66 are affluent suburban where they more compete with the VVD. The idealist post-materalis and more woke party is GL that is competing more with BIJ1 for the most wokish voters.

I think most people would consider D66 posh or elitist rather than woke.

[Zinneke]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Studiebeurs was abolished during Rutte-II not Rutte-III (D66 indeed supported it). Volt will definetely eat up the D66 vote, but not BIJ1 and its questionable Volt is much more left-wing than D66. D66 may be post-materialis and may be somewhat woke, but its voters are also pragmatic. Another strong constituency of D66 are affluent suburban where they more compete with the VVD. The idealist post-materalis and more woke party is GL that is competing more with BIJ1 for the most wokish voters.

I think most people would consider D66 posh or elitist rather than woke.

Yup, you are right, but D66 in university contexts is slightly more towards that direction.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

D66 still has that image of being a pro-university pro-student party, and people buy that way too easily...

I'd think i'd be unsure between voting for Splinter, Volt, PvdD and Piratenpartij. I hope BIJ1, Splinter and Piratenpartij enter parliament and that Volt get a lot of seats.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/GijsSchumacher/status/1372274349063999489

[LAKISYLVANIA]

VVD - 35 (+2)
D66 - 27 (+8)
PVV - 17 (-3)
CDA - 14 (-5)
GL - 8 (-6)
SP - 8 (-6)
PvdA - 9 (=)
PvdD - 6 (+1)
CU - 4 (-1)

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

VVD 35 (+2)
D66 27 (+8)
PVV 17 (-2)
CDA 14 (+5)
PvdA 9 (=)
SP 8 (-6)
GL 8 (-6)
FvD 7 (+5)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 6 (+1)
Volt 4 (+4)
SGP 3 (=)
JA21 3 (+3)
Denk 2 (-1)
BBB 1 (+1)
Bij1 1 (+1)

D66 really surged!
The left decimated!
CDA really bad!

[Zinneke]

Lol Hoekstra failed badly.