Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[H. Ross Peron]

https://fd.nl/achtergrond/1375699/op-zoek-naar-het-electorale-gat-op-links-ljc1caRHSw3o

"the gap on the left" - an article appearing in the Financieele Dagblad about how a "Danish" style social democratic party that is hard on immigration could potentially do well given polling and revive their hopes somewhat. The obvious candidate would be SP, with them already on many cultural issues being quite traditionalist and Jan Marijnissen saying he didn't like the way the left in the west had chosen the culture wars as a battleground or the cancel culture. But daughter Lilian tried to make migration an issue going beyond social dumping and calling for a revision for work permits, and it caused too much friction internally. You know have a movement within PvdA called "Vrij Links" that wishes to stop the debate about culture wars and start talking about secular progressive values as a starting point and then focus on economics.

The Dutch left continues to slide in the polls. Yet the median voter might still probably consider itself progressive, and I think in 2012 you had a SP then PvdA surge to shoulder Rutte (ok, after the most right-wing government in Dutch history, granted) but eventually falling just short and collapsing after the mistake that was the Purple coalition. Weirdly I can only see Timmermans being able to get back to that level in the short term. He actually can target the places a PvdA campaign to unite the Left needs to target (his "home" Parkstad being the prime example), and he has a way of being able to talk to several constituencies without tripping up. But he probably sees himself as more effective in Brussels. Plus the other left-wing parties wouldn't want to work with him as easily as they did with Asscher and now Ploumen.

Sounds like what Jacques Monasch aimed for in his Nieuwe Wegen party. Such a party or faction should firmly reject austerity politics though and be more willing to ally with the CU or CDA than D66 .

[SunSt0rm]

Latest poll from Peil



It shows D66 is surging from Kaag strong performance in the media and from the debates. CDA is suprisingly holding ground sofar even though Hoekstra is having a horrific campaign sofar. VVD seems to slide even more, but I would be suprised if they lose seats compared to 2017. There is big difference between this poll and other pollsters where VVD is polling between 35-40 seats and PVV lower.50+ is at risk getting out of parliament after the infighting in the party, but I think they probably squeeze into just from their party name.  GL may be the biggest loser of this election after some weak performance from Klaver, the Klaver magic seems to be fading for some time now where its voters are going to PvdA, Volt, D66, PvdD, Bij1. I am wondering what Klaver will do if he indeed will lose that much.

This week there was controversity when Baudet was personally attacked by a comedian at RTL talkshow. Baudet left the program after the comedian was roasting about Baudet anti-semitism and joking about his girlfriend jews heritiage. RTL had to apology for the incident.

[Zinneke]

Wierdly upside down but quality nonetheless :

[Diouf]

I&O also show VVD slipping further, down to 33 seats. D66 gaining 3 seats #kaagmentum.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not sure if posted before, but here is a Dutch iSideWith: https://tweedekamer2021.stemwijzer.nl/#/

Following in the footsteps of my SPD-CDU score in Germany and SAP-Moderates in Sweden, my conclusion is that I am a left-leaning elderly man both in my political views and in my left hip joint




The quiz allows a tie-breaker round for your top three parties, but I did top two instead:

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My test results:
Party voor de Dieren - 90%
Pirate Party - 87%
Splinter - 77%
SP - 73%
U-Buntu Connected Front - 73%
GroenLinks - 70%
DENK - 70%
BIJ1 - 70%
NIDA - 70%
Partij van de Arbeid - 67%
D66 - 63%
Volt - 60%
ChristenUnie - 57%
JONG - 57%
Lijst30 - 57%
NLBeter - 53%
50+ - 50%
Code Oranje - 47%
Trots op Nederland - 47%
BoerBurgerBeweging - 43%
CDA - 40%
Lijst Henk Krol - 40%
Jezus Leeft - 40%
Oprecht - 37%
SGP - 30%
PVV - 27%
Libertaire Partij - 27%
Forum voor Democratie - 23%
JA21 - 20%
VVD - 13% (LOL)

[Zinneke]

The SP is literally you though Laki.

[VPH]

https://fd.nl/achtergrond/1375699/op-zoek-naar-het-electorale-gat-op-links-ljc1caRHSw3o

"the gap on the left" - an article appearing in the Financieele Dagblad about how a "Danish" style social democratic party that is hard on immigration could potentially do well given polling and revive their hopes somewhat. The obvious candidate would be SP, with them already on many cultural issues being quite traditionalist and Jan Marijnissen saying he didn't like the way the left in the west had chosen the culture wars as a battleground or the cancel culture. But daughter Lilian tried to make migration an issue going beyond social dumping and calling for a revision for work permits, and it caused too much friction internally. You know have a movement within PvdA called "Vrij Links" that wishes to stop the debate about culture wars and start talking about secular progressive values as a starting point and then focus on economics.

The Dutch left continues to slide in the polls. Yet the median voter might still probably consider itself progressive, and I think in 2012 you had a SP then PvdA surge to shoulder Rutte (ok, after the most right-wing government in Dutch history, granted) but eventually falling just short and collapsing after the mistake that was the Purple coalition. Weirdly I can only see Timmermans being able to get back to that level in the short term. He actually can target the places a PvdA campaign to unite the Left needs to target (his "home" Parkstad being the prime example), and he has a way of being able to talk to several constituencies without tripping up. But he probably sees himself as more effective in Brussels. Plus the other left-wing parties wouldn't want to work with him as easily as they did with Asscher and now Ploumen.

Sounds like what Jacques Monasch aimed for in his Nieuwe Wegen party. Such a party or faction should firmly reject austerity politics though and be more willing to ally with the CU or CDA than D66 .

I hadn't heard of Nieuwe Wegen but they line up with my own politics pretty decently. Would be torn between them and CU if NW was a larger outfit.

[SunSt0rm]

There is another political test that position you on the political spectrum with the major parties

https://www.kieskompas.nl/

[SunSt0rm]

Final polls are coming today, 4 in total.

2 have just published and it shows D66 and Volt momentum while VVD and CDA are getting lower. The left is stagnating and we have the possibility of more new parties beside JA21 and Volt. 50+ seriously at risk getting out of parliament

Kantar:

Ipsos:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, BBB is another agrarian populist party and Splinter is a pro-laicite, anti-idpol left outfit?

[SunSt0rm]

Another final poll from I&O

So, BBB is another agrarian populist party and Splinter is a pro-laicite, anti-idpol left outfit?

BBB was founded when the government was proposed to limit the nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands by halving the country's livestock, that led to massive protest from farmers. They are a party that thinks CDA has become too green and opposed the green measures on agriculture.

Splinter is founded by PvdD MP van Kooten, its a center-left, green, progressive and secular party without the wokism.

I very doubt Splinter will get in, but BBB may seriously get in now that at least 3 pollsters have polled them and BBB may have some real support in rurals

[Flyersfan232]

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

[SunSt0rm]

Final poll from Peil


The polls seem to indicate that VVD will be the largest and get close to the 2017 result. There will be a fight for 2nd place between PVV, CDA and D66. PVV seem to be slight favorite, but D66 has the momentum. The Left will get a disappointing result tomorrow and question may be which left party will be the largest of the left. FvD will gain a bit, but still smaller than last year. Volt and JA21 will get into parliament, BBB and Bij1 have chances to make it, while 50+ is at risk getting out of parliament. I will make a prediction this evening

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

The beauty of the Dutch system is that any party with support can get into parliament and can make a difference and move the overton-window. If there were a 5% threshold many parties would never have been able to get presented or temporarly get out of parliament like D66, SP, CU, SGP, GL, 50+, PvdD and FvD. The fact that still many parties have a chance to get in now should say about the traditional parties. And if they do not contribute to democracy they will fade from like LPF or possibly 50+ after tomorrow. Though I may agree it could get messy after tomorrow.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

Invaluable contributions.

[SunSt0rm]

My prediction for tomorrow:

VVD 34 (+1)
D66 19 (-)
PVV 19 (-1)
CDA 17 (-2)
PvdA 12 (+3)
SP 10 (-4)
GL 8 (-6)
FvD 7 (+5)
CU 6 (+1)
PvdD 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
Volt 3 (+3)
JA21 2 (+2)
Denk 2 (-1)
50+ 1 (-3)
BBB 1 (+1)

Turnout 75% (-6%)

[Astatine]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

Invaluable contributions.

He's essentially the International board version of ERM64man.

[Mike88]

Is there any data on how turnout is going in the last 2 days?

[SunSt0rm]

Is there any data on how turnout is going in the last 2 days?

Its estimated at 12% without the mailing vote, any person could vote though, but the 2 days were meant for people who were medically vulnerable. The mailing vote, which only 70 years or older persons can do, is a big mess. About 8% of the vote is invalid, the procedure seems to be too difficult to understand for seniors. Though the minister has changed the procedure to reduce the invalid ballots, so the expectation is that 4% of the mailing vote is invalid, still too many though

[jaichind]

Standard question of

a) when will exit polls come out if any?
b) any links to live stream and/or results page ?

[Zinneke]

My prediction for tomorrow:

VVD 34 (+1)
D66 19 (-)
PVV 19 (-1)
CDA 17 (-2)
PvdA 12 (+3)
SP 10 (-4)
GL 8 (-6)
FvD 7 (+5)
CU 6 (+1)
PvdD 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
Volt 3 (+3)
JA21 2 (+2)
Denk 2 (-1)
50+ 1 (-3)
BBB 1 (+1)

Turnout 75% (-6%)

This prediction makes a lot of sense to me. FvD for me are being underpolled as they are the true lockdown sceptic party and in the end this is a lockdown issue election.

[Mike88]

Turnout update:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372209123329196034

[Harlow]

Anybody know of a good site to watch the results come in (preferably with a municipality map)?

[SunSt0rm]

Standard question of

a) when will exit polls come out if any?
b) any links to live stream and/or results page ?

9pm CET, there will be a provisional exit poll, and 9:45pm CET final exit poll

you can probably find the broadcast and the results at nos.nl

[freek]

Past elections https://www.verkiezingensite.nl was pretty good