Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[freek]

37 parties on the ballot, a new record.

Because many parties don't run in every district, the maximum in 1 district/ballot is 33 party lists, in Amsterdam. The other 18 districts in 'European Netherlands' have 29, 30, 31 or 32 lists. The BES islands in the Caribbean have 21 party lists (list numbers 1 to 20, and list 29: Ubuntu Connected Front).

33 lists is still a record though.

[Zinneke]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

[CumbrianLefty]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Sounds significant - was this expected?

[Zinneke]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Sounds significant - was this expected?

It is significant from the little I have read. Government basically bypassed parliament when they shouldn't have. The lockdowns do not constitute an urgent situation where government would be allowed to enact such a measure without parliament. And parliament is much more divided over the curfew than government.

Expected - sort of. I think you are going to see a lot of courts take governments to task over measures that don't pass the standards their predecessors wrote. IU think we have seen other occasions in Spain and Germany. I also thought the curfew in Brussels was basically illegal. The problem is, of course, that the anti-curfew movement here is basically hijacked by the Covid-deniers and anti-lcokdown crowd that can't argue a case without looking unhinged.

[SunSt0rm]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Sounds significant - was this expected?

It is significant from the little I have read. Government basically bypassed parliament when they shouldn't have. The lockdowns do not constitute an urgent situation where government would be allowed to enact such a measure without parliament. And parliament is much more divided over the curfew than government.

Expected - sort of. I think you are going to see a lot of courts take governments to task over measures that don't pass the standards their predecessors wrote. IU think we have seen other occasions in Spain and Germany. I also thought the curfew in Brussels was basically illegal. The problem is, of course, that the anti-curfew movement here is basically hijacked by the Covid-deniers and anti-lcokdown crowd that can't argue a case without looking unhinged.

Somwhat, Government just used the wrong instrument to get it done. They used the emergency route, but the judges argued it apparantly was not acut enough as debates were planned and the curfew was not implemented directly after the announcement. This route can only be used by real emergency like flooding, terrorist attacks when laws can not be implemented the normal way. So apparantly the judges argued that the government should have either completely have bypassed parliament and can use this route or do it the normal way if you consult parliament anyway

[SunSt0rm]

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

[SunSt0rm]

Court in the Hague orders the government to lift the curfew.

Government has successfully appealed the decision and the curfew will stay until friday when the court will make a final decision. In the mean time, government will make a law just in case the appeal will fail next friday

[Zinneke]

Stuk Rood Vlees are running a great series on the demographics of each party in the Netherlands, by Matthias Rooduijn. Here he shows that D66 voters are mostly yuppies and right-wing on the economy.

https://twitter.com/mrooduijn/status/1362316844019892227

his other articles on the smaller parties are already posted : https://stukroodvlees.nl/author/matthijs-rooduijn/

The FvD one was interesting because of the comparison between their vote and PVV. FvD's median voter was almost identical to PVV's but for education level. There's a hint of FvD being what Anne Applebaum described in her recent book, a party for people on the cusp of the very top but not getting there and wanting to overthrow it as a result, whilst PVV is just generally more anti-elites.

[Zinneke]

Klaver being sensationally bold and trying to revive something similar to the 1972 pact between PvdA, D66 and the Radical Party - by trying to get all the "progressive" movement commit to a post-electoral pact. GL have just released this poster :



Referring to the names of the 4 party leaders of the progressive parties.

Typically it was dismissed by the other 3 as they want to keep their cards close to their chest, and SP and D66 are laughably incompatible anyway as Lilian Marijnessen has already suggested. However, it is pretty unprecedented that party leaders make such bold moves to commit to their preferred coalition. Klaver did so last general election during a debate but it was after the question had been asked.

It could also be cynically be seen as Klaver wanting to put women forward in politics as his party, usually the standard bearers of Dutch feminism, are the only one of those parties not running a woman and thus not highlighting that fact. Kaag especially is towing the "I can be the first woman PM in the Netherlands"-line although she is to her credit also highlighting that she is qualified for her role, perhaps more than some of the brashful fratboys .

SP are facing more internal strife due to their decision to expel their youth members for excessive revolutionary rhetoric (see last month). ROOD, their youth wing, have since re-instated these members to their board. So SP's youth wing has now non-SP members in their board, and its not the first time the youth wings gain agency from the party in Dutch politics recently. See : D66 and FvD.  

On the right, Rutte has called parties not to make too many electoral promises for ending lockdowns . Baudet is busy questioning the Nuremburg trials and their legitimacy after WW2 (if that isnt a dog whistle I dont know what is) while trying to distinguish himself from Wilders over Corona policy, saying that Wilders is going along with the Cabinet's doctrine. CDA are struggling to find airtime, they want a 1 vs 1 with Rutte clearly but he isn't biting. The wiley election master is managing the media how he wants.  

[Zinneke]

There was a first round of debates this week on NOS op 3 youtube with a focus on young people (its the "yoof" channel) and all parties in parliament + 3 small ones. Followed by the Big One on RTL Nieuws last night, with the top 6 (Rutte, Wilders, Hoekstra, Klaver, Marijnissen, Kaag).

Wilders turned NOS op 3 down so Rutte was able to just take in the questions on his own. Klaver and Marijnissen were paired which was a bit of a love in, as was Kaag and Segers. Ploumen and Hoekstra offered more of a contrast  Baudet and Denk leader Farid Azarkan had arguably the most confrontational/entertaining one, and the most interesting was the one with Bij1, VOLT and JA21. Nanninga was a last minute replacement for JA21 and I thought she did quite well.


Because I watched the NOS op 3 debates I didn't watch all of the big one yesterday night, on RTL Nieuws, I just saw clips. On the debate stage there was no PvdA as mentioned previously. Instead though you had Rutte for the first time in a while having to face the Left, Wilders as well as CDA all on one platform. His tetchyest moment of the night though came when a victim of the benefits scandal confronted him head on about it.

Kaag for D66 looked like the surprise of the night but I guess that's also because she was a bit of an unknown quantity.
Marijnissen was good.
Klaver was a little dissapointing, rehearsed and he got the national football team manager wrong. I never understood the Jessiah movement. I thought he was in a solid position last time and bombed the debates too.

Wilders was witty and caricatural but that will bring out the base for him. Remains to be seen how he does vs FvD and JA21. I still think Baudet's more conspiracy/party kartel approach plus full corona scepticism means he is underpolled and perform better than expected from people turning down pollsters or just thinking on the day to vote against measures.


One thing of note though from my outsider's perspective was how the spectrum has drifted left on economics, quite considerably. All of them are in favour of higher taxes on the rich for repaying Corona debt, and Wilders for example was really banging in points about Rutte's austerity.

[EastAnglianLefty]

What was the logic behind having a debate with the top 6 parties? It appears that there's a much bigger gap between 7th and 8th than between 6th and 7th.

[Zinneke]

What was the logic behind having a debate with the top 6 parties? It appears that there's a much bigger gap between 7th and 8th than between 6th and 7th.

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

I don't know why they chose 6 either but I guess it just gets overcrowded otherwise.

[SunSt0rm]

There was a first round of debates this week on NOS op 3 youtube with a focus on young people (its the "yoof" channel) and all parties in parliament + 3 small ones. Followed by the Big One on RTL Nieuws last night, with the top 6 (Rutte, Wilders, Hoekstra, Klaver, Marijnissen, Kaag).

Wilders turned NOS op 3 down so Rutte was able to just take in the questions on his own. Klaver and Marijnissen were paired which was a bit of a love in, as was Kaag and Segers. Ploumen and Hoekstra offered more of a contrast  Baudet and Denk leader Farid Azarkan had arguably the most confrontational/entertaining one, and the most interesting was the one with Bij1, VOLT and JA21. Nanninga was a last minute replacement for JA21 and I thought she did quite well.


Because I watched the NOS op 3 debates I didn't watch all of the big one yesterday night, on RTL Nieuws, I just saw clips. On the debate stage there was no PvdA as mentioned previously. Instead though you had Rutte for the first time in a while having to face the Left, Wilders as well as CDA all on one platform. His tetchyest moment of the night though came when a victim of the benefits scandal confronted him head on about it.

Kaag for D66 looked like the surprise of the night but I guess that's also because she was a bit of an unknown quantity.
Marijnissen was good.
Klaver was a little dissapointing, rehearsed and he got the national football team manager wrong. I never understood the Jessiah movement. I thought he was in a solid position last time and bombed the debates too.

Wilders was witty and caricatural but that will bring out the base for him. Remains to be seen how he does vs FvD and JA21. I still think Baudet's more conspiracy/party kartel approach plus full corona scepticism means he is underpolled and perform better than expected from people turning down pollsters or just thinking on the day to vote against measures.


One thing of note though from my outsider's perspective was how the spectrum has drifted left on economics, quite considerably. All of them are in favour of higher taxes on the rich for repaying Corona debt, and Wilders for example was really banging in points about Rutte's austerity.

I have watched the RTL debate and mostly agree with your assessment.
Rutte was solid throughout the debate, but was shaky when he was confronted by a benefit victim. I thought Kaag was a small suprise as this was her first debate and she comes out competent without being out of touch (though I wonder if she really can win votes with her elitist appearance). Marijnissen was also quite good and she did much better than her predecessor that tanked during the previous debates. Wilders just did his thing and was the only person that can really distinguish from Rutte and the other parties who did not really differ much.

The only somewhat loser of the debate were Klaver and Hoekstra. Both came too rehearsed and their answers came out not natural. Its a bit annoying that Klaver has to involve his family on every subject. And Hoekstra could not really distinguish himself of Rutte at all and it seems like they agree on pretty much everything and his only attack on Rutte character was rather weak.

Overall I think there were no real winners and losers of this debate and I dont think it will change the narritive too much the coming weeks. Also notable that pretty much all parties with the exception of Wilders agree on most of the subjects. The movement to the left has caused the right to agree with increasing the tax on the rich and willingness to combat climate change. On Corona, most parties agree with the government policy so far. They were mostly debating on the details of it. Moreover, all parties seem to realize that the next government will likely need 4 or more parties and parties were constructive during the debate rather than combative. At one moment during the debate Klaver was acting the 'enlighted centrist' calling for unity and constructiveness. I wonder though if some left-wing voters are more looking for more confrontation towards Rutte rather being constructive.

Finally, I like the format (though I think the subjects were dull). The conversations with some citizens at this debate was refreshing as it takes the politicians out of their comfortzone where they really can't prepare their answers in advance unlike in normal debates.

[SunSt0rm]

What was the logic behind having a debate with the top 6 parties? It appears that there's a much bigger gap between 7th and 8th than between 6th and 7th.

Some campaign news:

Bad news for PvdA, their party is not invited for the first televised election debate 28th of February. The 6 largest party (VVD, PVV, CDA, D66, GL and SP) calculated from 2017 and current polls.

However, the PvdA is invited for the EenVandaag debate on 15th of March 2 days before the official election date and on the first early voting day, where the SP is not invited as they invited only the 6 largest party according to the polls.

The debates will be more important than usual as parties are limited to campaign caused by Covid-19

I don't know why they chose 6 either but I guess it just gets overcrowded otherwise.

Its already expanded to 6 from 4 which was the format then (it was called the "prime-minister debate"). In 2017 there were some controversities as RTL planned to be origanally be the top 4 but expanded last minute, because the differences between the parties were too small in the polls. Rutte and Wilders then withdrew from the debate not agreeing with the final change. I think this time RTL just want to put a hard limit and expanding too much will leads to be overcrowded, PvdA is just unlucky this time. Next big debate EenVandaag will invite the 6 largest party but according to the current polls. PvdA will be invited and SP will be unlucky.

The final debate at NOS will consists of all parties plus the parties that have splitted during this parliament (JA21, Lijst Henk Krol and Splinter). The 8 largest parties (discussed 7 plus CU) will be invited to the main format, whereas the smaller parties (PvdD, 50+, FvD, Denk, SGP, JA21, LHK and Splinter) will participate in a different format.

The main format will consists of 8 one-to-one debates decided by draw
Wilders vs Kaag
Marijnissen vs Ploumen
Klaver vs Hoekstra
Rutte vs Wilders
Segers vs Klaver
Kaag vs Marijnissen
Ploumen vs Segers
Hoekstra vs Rutte

Most of them will probably be dull. Though there is a classic PVV vs D66 debate and Rutte vs Wilders will be interesting, but only one real right vs left debate (Hoekstra vs Klaver)

[Zinneke]

Great poster from the party advocating a republic



"Kroonvirus" --> Crownvirus

didn't realise they also advocated a European Republic

definitely have my vote

[freek]

Maybe a ballot redesign could be a good idea for the next election

https://twitter.com/casperkalb/status/1367507305445675008

[Zinneke]

Maybe a ballot redesign could be a good idea for the next election

https://twitter.com/casperkalb/status/1367507305445675008

Dangerously based.

[freek]

For voters abroad, there is currently an experiment with a redesigned ballot:

https://mobile.twitter.com/LuukDeCock/status/1365302333870112770

Mark a party, and at the bottom mark the number of the candidate.

[Zinneke]

For voters abroad, there is currently an experiment with a redesigned ballot:

https://mobile.twitter.com/LuukDeCock/status/1365302333870112770

Mark a party, and at the bottom mark the number of the candidate.

Won't work for the 50PLUS voters who have already forgotten who their local Henk Krol "doyen" figure's number is by the time they have entered the election booth.

[SunSt0rm]

There have been two polls after the debate and the debate indeed did not change much. However, some trends continued like VVD sliding a bit and Volt has managed to get at least one seat at all polls now

Peilingwijzer (average of polls all except Peil)
VVD 39
PVV 19
CDA 18
D66 14
GL 12
SP 10
PvdA 13
CU 6
PvdD 6
50+ 2
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 4
Ja21 1
Volt 1

Futhermore, Hoekstra is desperately attacking Rutte now, calling out Rutte being visionless and attacking some of the umpopular measures, forgetting that CDA has been part of half of Rutte cabinet periods. While Hoekstra also called for the unemployment benefits to be halved in period

[freek]

New poll by I&O research:



CDA & VVD slowly losing some support, D66 & Volt gaining. BIJ1 also polled on 1 seat for the first time. BBB & Code Oranje polling not far below the threshold.

As always: Dutch polls are traditionally in seats, not percentages. For percentages: divide by 1.5

[SunSt0rm]

Infighting again at 50+. Leader Den Haan has called nr.3 verkoelen to withdraw after Verkoelen has called out the leader for accepting the Pension agreement a year ago, where the retirement age is 67. 50+ always have called for the retirement age to be 65 years. I think I have to agree with Verkoelen as whats the purpose of 50+ now after they accept the retirement of 67 now.

50+ really deserve to get out of parliament, but will probably squeeze into parliament just by their party name from low-informed voters. Heck, former leader Henk Krol, who defected from 50+, still get endorsement for 50+ when he is campaigning on the street for his new party

[SunSt0rm]

Peilingwijzer this week
VVD 38 (-1, compared to last week)
PVV 19
CDA 17 (-1)
D66 15 (+1)
GL 12
SP 10
PvdA 12 (-1)
CU 6
PvdD 6
50+ 2
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 4
Ja21 2 (+1)
Volt 2 (+1)

Not much has really changed so far this campaign. The trend is VVD and CDA are sliding a bit and D66 and Volt are gaining a bit since the start of the campaign as Freek has mentioned

[Zinneke]

https://fd.nl/achtergrond/1375699/op-zoek-naar-het-electorale-gat-op-links-ljc1caRHSw3o

"the gap on the left" - an article appearing in the Financieele Dagblad about how a "Danish" style social democratic party that is hard on immigration could potentially do well given polling and revive their hopes somewhat. The obvious candidate would be SP, with them already on many cultural issues being quite traditionalist and Jan Marijnissen saying he didn't like the way the left in the west had chosen the culture wars as a battleground or the cancel culture. But daughter Lilian tried to make migration an issue going beyond social dumping and calling for a revision for work permits, and it caused too much friction internally. You know have a movement within PvdA called "Vrij Links" that wishes to stop the debate about culture wars and start talking about secular progressive values as a starting point and then focus on economics.

The Dutch left continues to slide in the polls. Yet the median voter might still probably consider itself progressive, and I think in 2012 you had a SP then PvdA surge to shoulder Rutte (ok, after the most right-wing government in Dutch history, granted) but eventually falling just short and collapsing after the mistake that was the Purple coalition. Weirdly I can only see Timmermans being able to get back to that level in the short term. He actually can target the places a PvdA campaign to unite the Left needs to target (his "home" Parkstad being the prime example), and he has a way of being able to talk to several constituencies without tripping up. But he probably sees himself as more effective in Brussels. Plus the other left-wing parties wouldn't want to work with him as easily as they did with Asscher and now Ploumen.

[SunSt0rm]

https://fd.nl/achtergrond/1375699/op-zoek-naar-het-electorale-gat-op-links-ljc1caRHSw3o

"the gap on the left" - an article appearing in the Financieele Dagblad about how a "Danish" style social democratic party that is hard on immigration could potentially do well given polling and revive their hopes somewhat. The obvious candidate would be SP, with them already on many cultural issues being quite traditionalist and Jan Marijnissen saying he didn't like the way the left in the west had chosen the culture wars as a battleground or the cancel culture. But daughter Lilian tried to make migration an issue going beyond social dumping and calling for a revision for work permits, and it caused too much friction internally. You know have a movement within PvdA called "Vrij Links" that wishes to stop the debate about culture wars and start talking about secular progressive values as a starting point and then focus on economics.

The Dutch left continues to slide in the polls. Yet the median voter might still probably consider itself progressive, and I think in 2012 you had a SP then PvdA surge to shoulder Rutte (ok, after the most right-wing government in Dutch history, granted) but eventually falling just short and collapsing after the mistake that was the Purple coalition. Weirdly I can only see Timmermans being able to get back to that level in the short term. He actually can target the places a PvdA campaign to unite the Left needs to target (his "home" Parkstad being the prime example), and he has a way of being able to talk to several constituencies without tripping up. But he probably sees himself as more effective in Brussels. Plus the other left-wing parties wouldn't want to work with him as easily as they did with Asscher and now Ploumen.

Interesting article. Migration has always been a controversial topic in the left. The problem for the left parties in the Netherlands are that the party activists are to the left of their electorate on migration and very often out of touch. In 2018 former PvdA leader Asscher has spoken with the Danish social democrats to exchange ideas about migration. Later that year Asscher made start about thoughening on migration at a meeting with the Amsterdam branch (lol, the most progressive branch), but his idea was immediately rejected and people thought he sounded too much as Trump and since then Asscher didn't dare to talk about the topic anymore. Its no suprise the most controversial topic during Rutte-II for the PvdA (VVD-PvdA cabinet) wasn't about all the austrity cuts they have made, but on migration that cause uproar among the activists. The PvdA had to beg at the VVD to pardon 500 ayslum children. And indeed even at the SP it has caused uproar among its activists when Marijnissen tried to talk about migration.

 I don't really think Timmermans is the one that can really lift the Left, even though he won in 2019, but he would do better in Ploumen or Asscher would have. I think Rotterdam Mayor Aboutaleb has the potential to lead the PvdA back 30 seats. He is a Morrocan-Dutch politician, and thus can be sometimes be more tough on muslims (in particular) in a way while not being accused being racists like in 2015 after Charlie Hebdo attack when he told muslims extremists 'Go away, if you don't like to live Netherlands'. He has shown that he can be tough on his community if needed like in 2017 Turkey-Dutch riots in Rotterdam, is for law and order and is quite popular even among Leefbaar Rotterdam voters