Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[njwes]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

Is there a political party in the Netherlands that will run on an anti-curfew, anti-lockdown, anti-mask platform?

Probably best not to group these together as one coherent anti-corona-measures *program* tbh. Best to just accept the mandated masks and push back against all the other restrictions.

The curfew is somewhat controversial even though it was passed by a large majority in parliament after D66 and leftists parties withdrew their opposition. Though, I believe a majority of the people support the current measures even the curfew from polls

There does seem to be a trend in some Western European countries at least from what I've read that there's a pretty substantial disconnect between general polling numbers on "Approve/Disapprove _____ to control the spread of COVID" and the actual feelings of individuals when interviewed, focus-grouped, etc. Seem to remember reading quite a lot of evidence for that last summer and fall in the UK especially--could the Dutch population be similar?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The magic of PR means even if it is that is broadly popular, a significant minority can create quite a substantial bulwark in parliament (which is not a bad thing, mind).

[SunSt0rm]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

Is there a political party in the Netherlands that will run on an anti-curfew, anti-lockdown, anti-mask platform?

Probably best not to group these together as one coherent anti-corona-measures *program* tbh. Best to just accept the mandated masks and push back against all the other restrictions.

The curfew is somewhat controversial even though it was passed by a large majority in parliament after D66 and leftists parties withdrew their opposition. Though, I believe a majority of the people support the current measures even the curfew from polls

There does seem to be a trend in some Western European countries at least from what I've read that there's a pretty substantial disconnect between general polling numbers on "Approve/Disapprove _____ to control the spread of COVID" and the actual feelings of individuals when interviewed, focus-grouped, etc. Seem to remember reading quite a lot of evidence for that last summer and fall in the UK especially--could the Dutch population be similar?

There is certainly a big portion of the population that is done with the lockdown and curfew, but these riots are mostly done by hooligans, far right and youngsters (immigrants) who are you just looking for reasons to riot and looting now and its not about the Covid measures anymore.

[njwes]

What is the cause of the recent riots in the Netherlands?

the curfew which is a controversial high political issue too.

Is there a political party in the Netherlands that will run on an anti-curfew, anti-lockdown, anti-mask platform?

Probably best not to group these together as one coherent anti-corona-measures *program* tbh. Best to just accept the mandated masks and push back against all the other restrictions.

The curfew is somewhat controversial even though it was passed by a large majority in parliament after D66 and leftists parties withdrew their opposition. Though, I believe a majority of the people support the current measures even the curfew from polls

There does seem to be a trend in some Western European countries at least from what I've read that there's a pretty substantial disconnect between general polling numbers on "Approve/Disapprove _____ to control the spread of COVID" and the actual feelings of individuals when interviewed, focus-grouped, etc. Seem to remember reading quite a lot of evidence for that last summer and fall in the UK especially--could the Dutch population be similar?

There is certainly a big portion of the population that is done with the lockdown and curfew, but these riots are mostly done by hooligans, far right and youngsters (immigrants) who are you just looking for reasons to riot and looting now and its not about the Covid measures anymore.

Well I mean, as we learned in the US from the BLM protests, it's truly ALL about the spin. The BLM protests can frankly be viewed almost exactly the same way as you described the Dutch riots, just with different supposed objectives. How the media, politicians, etc decide to cover them (or not) makes all the difference.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Official: Government has resigned

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?

Very likely March 17th as planned

Why does the Netherlands hold elections on Wednesdays, and not Sundays like most other European countries?

[freek]

Official: Government has resigned

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?

Very likely March 17th as planned

Why does the Netherlands hold elections on Wednesdays, and not Sundays like most other European countries?

Religious reasons. Especially protestants in the Netherlands (used to) observe a quite strict Sunday rest, even voting is out of the question. While this isn't true anymore for most of them, there is still a significant group of orthodox protestants that do have objections. The typical SGP or ChristenUnie voters. Orthodox protestant civil servants will also have objections working on Sunday, and venues will be unavailable as well, thus making organizing elections on this day difficult in the 'Bible belt' municipalities.

Since Sunday is out of the question for religious reasons, then Saturday as well because of the Jewish Sabbath, and maybe Friday too.

Monday is also impossible, because many preparations for the elections are done the day before.

So Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday remain. I think Wednesday was chosen because many polling stations are in primary schools, and in the past school children used to have the Wednesday afternoon off.

European Parliament elections are on Thursday, because European election law dictates that these should be held between Thursday and Sunday to keep the window as short as possible.

In the past, a few elections were held on Tuesday, instead of Wednesday. This was also for religious reasons. Orthodox protestant denominations observe a 'day of prayer for harvest and labour' on the second Wednesday of March, occassionally interfering with the prescribed window in Dutch election law. The law has been changed in 2014, when this occurred for the third time in 11 years. Regular elections are now on the third Wednesday in March.

[freek]

Some election related news:

• On Tuesday, the Senate passed the law that temporarily implements vote by mail for those over 70, and early voting on Monday and Tuesday in a limited number of polling stations.
• While unlikely, delaying the elections is still not out of the question. If it will be delayed, the new date will be somewhere in June.
• Most municipalities have managed to find enough 'covid proof' locations for polling stations. Traditionally, polling stations often are located in retirement homes and in schools, but both are unavailable now. Alternative locations are found in churches and sport venues. Some municipalities also open a polling station in a tent, or a drive through polling station.

I'll be volunteering as a polling station official again. I am scheduled for all 3 days of voting, in 3 different polling stations.

[Flyersfan232]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

[PSOL]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

[freek]

New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

[Estrella]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

[Zinneke]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

Rutte III though I think most would have been satisfied with their term up until Corona and the benefits scandal, with the possible exception of D66 voters who abandoned them. I'm not sure what those PvdA --> D66 voters expected though.

[Estrella]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

Rutte III though I think most would have been satisfied with their term up until Corona and the benefits scandal, with the possible exception of D66 voters who abandoned them. I'm not sure what those PvdA --> D66 voters expected though.

On that note: what has Rutte III actually done?

[Zinneke]

the netherlands should raise the threshold to 5%

No it should not, as the current threshold ensures a variety of representation in a deeply pillarised society.

Hasn't been like that for a couple decades now, which is exactly the problem. In the era of pillarization, you could have a dozen parties in parliament and the system would still handle it because every party's support was stable and everyone knew what to expect.

Anyway, 5% wouldn't solve anything. The problem isn't small parties getting in with 0.x% of the vote; it's the overabundance of mid-sized parties that have no other option but to govern with the sole major party; but that party, unlike the old CDA, isn't centrist and you end up with ideologically incoherent coalitions and compromises that make all sides dissatisfied.

Rutte III though I think most would have been satisfied with their term up until Corona and the benefits scandal, with the possible exception of D66 voters who abandoned them. I'm not sure what those PvdA --> D66 voters expected though.

On that note: what has Rutte III actually done?

Here you have proof they are happy plus the reasons :

1. economy still thriving which is no mean feat.
2. thorny issue of pensions
3. coronavirus response up until the curfew (which is and will be divisive) was generally seemingly "good" in the eyes of most - although i have my doubts on that.
4. A sense of direction and continuity - but then that's somewhat outdated a view too due to the resignation. A reminder that not so long ago it was deemed virtually impossible for a Dutch government to serve a full term.


https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/17/people-satisfied-rutte-iii-cabinet

The benefits scandal is what it is but no one party seems to be able to take political capital out of it, just individuals who investigated it.

[freek]

A grand total of 41 party lists were submitted to the Electoral Council yesterday, 28 of them were not elected in 2017. It is expected that the final number will be lower, quite a few did not yet pay the deposit or did not yet collect enough declarations of support. Still, it will be a lot more than in 2017 (28 lists).

The final list will be announced on Friday. I'll write a few sentences about each new party afterwards.

[jaymichaud]

New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

Would Volt ever pass, though? Surely D66 covers the base for the really really pro-EU people.

[freek]

New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

Would Volt ever pass, though? Surely D66 covers the base for the really really pro-EU people.

Volt received 106k votes in the European elections, nearly 2%. There is some potential.

Still, I don't expect Volt to gain a seat. Typical Volt voters will probably vote strategically D66 (or GroenLinks) in a higher stakes event as the national elections.

[Zinneke]

New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

Would Volt ever pass, though? Surely D66 covers the base for the really really pro-EU people.

Volt received 106k votes in the European elections, nearly 2%. There is some potential.

Still, I don't expect Volt to gain a seat. Typical Volt voters will probably vote strategically D66 (or GroenLinks) in a higher stakes event as the national elections.

Volt is the perfect candidate for a certain type of disgruntled D66 voter though.
And if there is a battle to meet the threshold between them and Code Oranje, the politically engaged (who tend to vote for those two kind of parties) might "lend" their votes.

I'm just saying this to get a bit of excitement going, because so far the campaign is lacklustre for obvious reasons.

[Zinneke]

37 parties on the ballot, a new record.

1. VVD
2. PVV
3. CDA
4. D66
5. GroenLinks
6. SP
7. Partij van de Arbeid
8. ChristenUnie
9. Partij voor de Dieren
10. 50Plus
11. Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
12. Denk
13. Forum voor Democratie
14. Bij1
15. JA21
16. Code Oranje
17. Volt
18. Nida
19. Piratenpartij
20. LP Libertaire Partij
21. Jong
22. Splinter
23. BBB
24. NL Beter
25. Lijst Henk Krol
26. Oprecht
27. Jezus Leeft
28. Trots op Nederland
29. Ubuntu Connected Front
30. Blanco lijst
31. Partij van de Eenheid
32. De Feestpartij
33. Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
34. Wij Zijn Nederland
35. Modern Nederland
36. De Groenen
37. Partij voor de Republiek

[Flyersfan232]

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

[Zinneke]

they need move the thershold up to 5% no way should a party under 1% of the vote be awared a seat

I think a cornerstone of democracy is incumbents being able to lose. If you extend this idea to its maximum, you must allow a platform for small parties to develop, and be represented and have a platform. In this sense I would again defend the Dutch electoral system. Their governments may be unstable but their institutions have remained strong. Belgium has the 5% threshold (simplyfing things here) plus districts...we're far more in chaos, politically speaking, than our northern brethren despite having pretty strong fragmentation (and yes, I know, the ethnic divide plays, but so does the complacency of our incumbent parties, whereas in the NL the government parties do genuinely fear the grassroots).

FVD might be a Russian psy op that went to sh**t, LPF might have been a mess too, but their successes, SP's success in 2006, PvdD and their success etc are examples of democracy in action.

[PSOL]

Why is the Ubuntu Front a thing and not with BIJ1

[freek]

The new parties BIJ1, JA21, Code Oranje were already mentioned before, and Volt is the Dutch branch of the pan-European Volt party. A short profile (whenever possible) of the other participating parties:

18. NIDA
Moderate muslim party, more islam oriented than Denk. Where the Denk electorate is majority Turkish background, for Nida it is more Moroccan and other Arabic background. Currently represented in Rotterdam & The Hague city councils, and also in Almere city council after a PvdA councillor defected to Nida. In 2018 the party was part of a Rotterdam electoral pact with PvdA, GL and SP, until a 2014 tweet surfaced where party leader Nourdin el Ouali compared Israel with IS. The party participated in the 2019 province elections in both Noord-Holland & Zuid-Holland, with a OKish result: 11347 votes, about 1/6th of Denk. If the Partij van de Eenheid (list nr. 31) wouldn't have participated, I'd guess 20-30000 votes. Now maybe on the lower end of that estimate.

19. Piratenpartij
The Pirate Party. 35478 votes in 2017. I don't think the party will improve on that. Their 2017 party leader Ancilla van de Leest had more appeal than current party leader Matthijs Pontier. Pontier is a councillor in a water board (which in the Netherlands is a layer of government, not an iterrogation technique), elected on a joint list with De Groenen. About 20000 votes this time?

20. Libertaire Partij
Libertarian Party. First election participation in 1994, revived in 2012, without any successes this far. Compared to previous elections, the party programme is bit more moderate. 2017 result: 1492 votes, will end up in the low 1000s again.

21. JONG
I had never heard of this group before. A party for millenials apparently.

22. Splinter
Founded by former PvdD MP Femke-Merel van Kooten. She left PvdD because she refused to focus on animal rights only. While being an independent MP Van Kooten joined forces with Henk Krol (ex-50PLUS) for a while, before leaving them as well. Despite being an independent MP, she had some successes in parliament, for example a EUR1000 COVID19-bonus for healthcare workers.
Splinter calls itself a 'green, progressive, social-liberal, secular' party.

23. Boer Burger Beweging (BBB)
Farmer Civilian Movement. A party founded by farmers, leader is an agricultural journalist. In 2019 there were many protests by angry farmers, this inspired the foundation of BBB. More radical groups blocked highways and intimidated politicians, but these are not part of the party. Focus is obviously on rural and agricultural issues.

24. NLBeter
A party focusing on better health care, founded by healthcare workers. A similar party 'Zorgend Nederland' was denied ballot access after it submitted an invalid list of candidates to the Electoral Council.

25. Lijst Henk Krol
Henk Krol used to be the leader of 50PLUS, but left the party last year after infighting. Calls his new party 'progressive conservative' whatever that may be. His party programma is rather vague (the party wants 'good health care', 'care for the environment' and 'people to have a place to live', with some focus on safety and lower taxes), but not as single issue as 50PLUS.

26. Oprecht
The name means 'sincere', with a pun on 'on the right wing'. Led by Michael Ruperti, a lawyer who in November challenged Thierry Baudet for the FvD-leadership. One of the many new parties to the right of the VVD.

27. Jezus Leeft
'Jesus Lives'. A conservative christian party founded by Joop van Ooijen, an evangelist. The party participated in elections on all different levels since 2014, without any success. Van Ooijen's claim to fame is a conflict with local government, who tried to prevent him from writing a huge 'Jesus Saves' in roof tiles on his roof, because it was distracting for passing cars (his house is right next to the highway).

28. Trots op Nederland
Founded by Rita Verdonk in 2008 after her expulsion from the VVD. Polled really well for a while in that year (>15%), but did not gain a seat in 2010. Verdonk left the party, those that remained participated in the 2012 elections as part of 'Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt'. An attempt to participate in the 2017 elections failed. The party is still represented in the municipal council of Haarlem. One of the many parties to the right of the VVD.

29. U-Buntu Connected Front
Against racism, focusing on the interests of those with African roots. It participated (without much success) in the municipal elections in Amsterdam in 2018, 0.3%.

30. & 33. 'Lijst-Zeven' & Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
This is a fun one, for those interested in Dutch electoral law. A group of conspiracy theorists and activists against the Covid-19 measures started 'Vrij en Sociaal Nederland'. Since last month, a moderate and a radical faction are feuding for party control. Last week, both factions seperately handed in candidate lists. Because signatures were already being collected, both lists had the same candidates. However, each group handed in declarations of support from separate districts. Probably depending on the faction membership of those responsible for collecting in each district. It probably caused some head aches at the Electoral Council, but the law provides for this (extremely rare) situation. Main principle is that a voter hands in the candidate list, and that the Electoral Council is not allowed to merge separate applications.

Since the 2 party members authorized to give permission to use the party name for a list were both in the moderate faction, one list is officially named 'Vrij en Sociaal Nederland'. It wrested control of the declarations of support in 6 districts only though. Each candidate on the lists has to give permission in writing for their candidacy, this group had 10 of these, the remaining 18 candidates were removed.

The other list is officially nameless, its first candidate is Anna Zeven. On this list also Willem Engel, a dancing instructor / Covid expert / protest leader. On the ballot in 12 districts, with 21 candidates. Oddly enough, 3 candidates are on both lists. This is permitted, but not in the same district.

On Thursday, both factions are going to appeal at the Council of State (the court of appeal for administrative law)

All other parties run in less than 10 districts:

• 31. Partij voor de Eenheid (Unity Party). Also a muslim party, but more conservative and provocative. Only represented in The Hague city council. The party is led by Arnoud van Doorn, a Dutch convert to islam and former PVV city coumcillor (before his conversion obviously). A previous incarnation 'Islam Democraten' participated in a few electoral districts in 2006, 4339 votes. Now maybe a bit more, but not many more.
  
• 32. Feestpartij (Party Party ) is the successor to Partij van de Toekomst, a joke party that participated in 2002, 2003 & 2012.
  
• 34. Wij zijn Nederland (We are Netherlands) is a right-extremist party
  
• 35. Modern Nederland wants to govern via internet polling
  
• 36. De Groenen (the Greens) is a green party that already exists since the 1980s, and managed to elect some municipal and province councillors in the 1980s & 1990s. Now all that remains are a few dozen members that pretend to be a party. It was more or less forced to participate. Otherwise it would lose its party registration, and for legal reasons it is unable to renew it.
  
• 37. Partij voor de Republiek wants a republic.

[freek]

And today there will be a court case started by PvdD to force government to open the option to vote by mail to all voters, not limiting it to voters over 70.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/netherlands-international-adoptions.html

The Netherlands has temporarily halted all adoptions from abroad after an investigation found that the government had failed to act on known abuses, including child theft and trafficking, between 1967 and 1998.

“Adoptees deserve recognition for mistakes that were made in the past,” Sander Dekker, the minister for legal protection, said on Monday, as the results of the investigative report were made public. “They have to be able to count on our help in the present. And for the future we have to critically ask ourselves if and how to continue adoption from abroad.”

The government formed an independent commission in 2018 to look into international abuses after a lawsuit showed that the Dutch government had been involved in an illegal adoption from Brazil in 1980, and pointed to the possibility of more such cases. Experts said they knew of no other Western country that had stopped international adoptions.

In its report, the commission said it had found systematic wrongdoing, including pressuring poor women to give up their babies, falsifying documents, engaging in fraud and corruption, and, in effect, buying and selling children. In some cases, the Dutch government was aware of misdeeds in adoptions from Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, but did nothing about them and allowed them to continue, the report said.


“The intercountry adoption system itself served as a kind of ‘child-laundering’ mechanism, as children who were put up for adoption under suspect circumstances could be transformed into legitimately adopted children,” the commission reported. It described the creation of an adoption market and the conversion of children into “tradable goods,” a system that could be “categorized as an abuse.”

The government froze new applications for international adoptions, though pending adoptions can be completed, Mr. Dekker said.

The question of when and how to resume adoptions from abroad will be up to the next government. Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the rest of his cabinet resigned last month, and elections for a new Parliament are scheduled next month.