Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD

What specifically are they upset about? Were they expecting Volt at 80 seats?

Volt definetly got support there, but they mostly like GL and other left wing parties. And they expected the Left to do better than this horrific result

Edit: oh nvm, I was looking at the wrong echochamber

[SunSt0rm]

VVD is a bit down in the first two results from northern islands, but other than that, the party movements mostly mirror the exit poll. Apparently voting areas with more than 100% turnout due to tourists.

I wouldn't take these results too seriously as turnout is usually above 100% because of tourism

[SunSt0rm]

Do we think first two results are outliers, or is it significant that VVD down 3% in both but +3 seats in 9.45 exit poll?

There are not representative for the final result as these islands usually have above 100% turnout because of tourism. The current voters are not the same as the voters of 4 years ago

[SunSt0rm]

https://twitter.com/L_deJonge/status/1372299506159607809

Look at those non-voters...unbelievable that Wilders didnt try to surf on the anti-lockdown wave.

I don't know if Wilders is really wrong though. 2 Years ago, FvD was the largest party and people were questioning the existance of the PVV. But FvD icollapsed when Covid hit them, and PVV attracted a lot of these votes from FvD by taking Covid more seriously than FvD. PVV is still much bigger than FvD

[SunSt0rm]

Why were D66 so underestimated in the final polls of the campaign?

I dont necessary think D66 is really underestimated by the polls, the final polls showed that D66 was really surging, but these polls didn't account for the movement yesterday or today. Also there was a race for 2nd place and probably some left wing voters voted tactically for D66 to get them 2nd

[SunSt0rm]

Percentage calculation for the second exit poll.

Its just precinct, I believe the NOS say the precinct was supposed to be bellwether last time.

[SunSt0rm]

Rozendaal is in, VVD still lead. I only not this because the municipality was in the top 15 D66 muni's in 2017, but its one of the areas where the D66 vote is tied to the VVD rather than the left.

Affluent suburbs indeed where the fight is more between VVD and D66

[SunSt0rm]

The first results, mainly at rural areas do not really suggest big gains of D66 the exit polls suggest. So probably huge gains are made in the big cities. PvdA make some big gains Limburg at the expense of SP it seems

[SunSt0rm]

D66 gains in the suburbs around Amsterdam are better than the south, but don't really suggest 27 seats tbf. I think D66 may be overestimated by exit poll maybe because of postal votes

[SunSt0rm]

BIJ1 is probably safe as Rotterdam is still out and the results in Amsterdam is not complete.

There is some rumor, beside Omtzigt getting more votes than Hoekstra, that its not out of the question Van Haga will get more votes than Baudet. I know a friend who counted the personal votes and he said that Van Haga and Baudet roughly got equal personal votes. FvD and Baudet has suprisingly been silence since the results even though they won quite a lot

https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372504175985184771
https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372505545362567168
https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372506284730286081

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam finally has a final count, the result currently may have shift to give D66 a 24th seat at the expense of VVD. There are still votes left from abroad to count which may shift it again, possibly VVD gaining back the seat from D66 or even FvD

[SunSt0rm]

This is quite explosive, Rutte is in real trouble, debate coming this afternoon. If Rutte is not able to explain this, I dont see how a new government can be formed with Rutte

[SunSt0rm]

Rutte is done

[SunSt0rm]

D66 and CDA position are still unclear during the debate, they have heavily criticized Rutte, but also seem to give a possible way out. But I do not see if Rutte somehow survives this, how a possible stable government can be formed.

This is not the first time but has become a pattern, when Rutte is in trouble, Rutte always used the excuse to forget a crucial element. But this time from the notes its plain clear he is lying or he is really suffering from dementia. I think if he last week just admitted he was discussing the position of Omtzigt it would not have blown this much.

Its laughable that Rutte, Ollogren and Jorritsma all three have ''forgotten'' that they have discussed about Omtzigt and using that as their defense.

[SunSt0rm]

I get it if this would be too long to respond to lol, but can someone explain what exactly Omzigt's position is relative to the CDA as a whole? What makes him and his positions different from that of the rest of the party? And different from the rest of the Rutte coalition?

There aren't that many articles on Omzigt in English that I've been able to find from an (admittedly basic) Google search, and Wiki isn't helping either.

Zinneke has explained in his topic, but Omtzigt is hard working investigating maverick that is not afraid to be tough on any government even when the CDA is part of it. He has been annoyance for the CDA leadership for a long time and was placed at a unelected place for the election in 2012, but received enough preference votes to get into parliament. His fame rose when he lead the relevation of the ToeslagenAffaire that led to the fall of Rutte-III.

[SunSt0rm]

Another big thing that has come up so far from the debates is that Rutte claimed that he was informed this morning at 07:30 AM that the notes indicated he talked about Omtzigt, while other faction leaders were only able to look at their notes between 09:00-10:00 2 hours later. So someone leaked that information to Rutte and Rutte does not want to give his source away.

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDA; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

Its more likely that Rutte is afraid that Omtzigt will become CDA faction leader when CDA joins the government and Hoekstra decides to become Minister. And Rutte doesn't want someone that will criticize too much from parliament, so 'promoting' Omtzigt to Minister will silence him. In the notes, it seems that Jorritsma has also suggested to 'promote' Omtzigt to become Speaker. A symbolic neutral position.

[SunSt0rm]

I hope the motion of disapproval means that Rutte can stay for a few month to manage Corona, but you are not going to lead the next government and VVD use this time to find a new leader. But I am probably too optimistic and CDA, D66 and CU were spineless again

[SunSt0rm]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

[SunSt0rm]

Some news after the debate and vote:

Rutte will not step down and will continue as PM and VVD leader and says he wants to win the confidence back and claims he received 1.9 million preference votes and would not step away.

After the vote of disapprove Kaag was interviewed and said she would have stepped down if she were Rutte place and says its no certainty that Rutte can continue

Youth organization of CU in a letter have condemn Segers for not voting for the motion of no confidence and ask Segers not to join a government with Rutte as PM

Parliament has decided that look for a new explorer next that will be independent and have distance with politics. Current explorers Koolmees and Van Ark have just resigned

[SunSt0rm]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

[SunSt0rm]

Segers says to Nederlands Dagblad that CU are not entering another cabinet with Rutte as PM. He states that cooperation with VVD in a new cabinet is still possible, but not with Rutte cause he is the poster boy of the political culture of the last ten years. A culture where elections are a nuisance and an interruption, and where opposition (i.e Omzigt) is impeded. The man responsible for that culture can not lead a cabinet, which have to change that culture.

Without CU's votes the other day, there had not been a majority to save Rutte in the vote of no confidence, so with Segers' statement it really seems like game over for Rutte.

I think Harry Potter still has another spell up his sleeve. We thought he was done on thursday, but this guy is incredible is his ability to survive.

If Rutte manages to survive this, it will be his greatest trick ever. Anyway, Rutte and VVD have reiterated that Rutte will be their Prime Minister candiate. And in the mean time, promiment VVD are putting given full support for Rutte and attacked Segers as betrayer.  So we are moving one step closer to gridlock.  


Also Peil has come up with the poll in the aftermath of the debate. VVD is losing 6 seats and it shows that electorally its better to keep Rutte than replacing him especially with a nobody. Also D66 is not suffering so far from the debacle and decision not to vote Rutte away.



Peil also polled whether parties should govern with Rutte. A very big majority of CDA and D66 voters do not want their party to join a new Rutte-led government

[SunSt0rm]

There is split (again) within the FvD, Van Haga and 2 other MPs are splitting from the FvD. The 3 disagreed with Baudet how he approach politics and cause controversity and accuses Baudet being solistic

[SunSt0rm]

Some formation update:

Formation seems to be in deadlock now. Kaag dreamcabinet VVD/D66/CDA/PvdA/GL faces resistance. CDA and VVD refuse to go into coalition with PvdA and GL together. PvdA & GL have reinforced their stance that they will only go together in a new coalition and not alone. Moreover, a group of VVD members have started a petition to be against governing with GL.

Furthermore, D66 have signalled that they do not want to govern with either JA21 and CU, and CU leader Segers says as 10th largest party its not up to his party to have talks now and that the bigger parties should talk first.

[SunSt0rm]

While the formation is still in deadlock, the situation at the CDA is about to get explosive after today documents of Omtzigt have been leaked in which he destroyed the CDA. In the 76 page documents he described how the party worked against him during the CDA leadership election. He writes in the document that he has been called "psychopath, sick man, eating dog, jerk, disturbed and unstable" in communication between CDA faction employees and members.

Omtzigt also point to that 3 donors have donated 1 million Euro for the election campaign trying to influence the platform and eventually pressured De Jonge to resign as party leader last year. He also said he was promised by the party chairman to become party leader in the event De Jonge would withdraw, however, the party backstabbed him and chose Hoekstra instead

[SunSt0rm]

Omtzigt has officially break out of the CDA, he will continue as independent mp when he returns from sick leave