Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[freek]

So the main question last night is whether D66 and CDA have decided to give Rutte one more chance or they are guilding him to his political end. But Rutte political life is now in D66 and CDA hands now

So they are roughly 4 scenerio now for the formation:

1) CDA and D66 want to continue with Rutte as PM Rutte in exchange for big concessions. Only likely coalition will be VVD/D66/CDA/CU as they were the only parties not voting for motion of no confidence.
2) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is willing to step down for a another PM, probably someone else from VVD
3) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down so CDA and D66 will govern without the VVD but with the Left in a coalition of chaos
4) CDA and D66 do not want to continue with Rutte anymore and he is not willing to step down and we will get gridlock and can go back to scenario 1-3 when there is pressure or possibly new elections

My 2 cents is that the second scenario is the likeliest. Either Edith Schippers, Jeanine Hennis or Tamara van Ark will be presented as the VVD candidate for PM.

[freek]

Someone brought this up to me elsewhere but didn't provide details: do D66 want any further movement on euthanasia during this term?

Yes, from the notes with the explorer, its clear that D66 wants to continue with movement on euthanasia and do not wants to negotiate about it in the next government and wants to leave it as free subject for parliament to decide, knowing it will pass then. It will be one of the most difficult subjects if D66 and CU have to negotiate in the next government who is very against it

How do they wish to further expand euthanasia?

Currently the law requires that the patient's suffering is unbearable with no prospect of improvement. D66 basically wants to remove that requirement for those over 75 years old.  The proposal is that these people may request an assisted suicide, if they consider their life to be complete. Even if they are completely healthy.

[freek]

Parliament appointed Herman Tjeenk Willink (PvdA) as 'informateur'. He is a retired vice president of the Council of State (the King formally being the president), and has been informateur in 1994, 1999, 2010 & 2017. Tjeenk Willink was already involved in coalition negotiations in 1972 & 1977, as a civil servant.

[freek]

Vera Bergkamp from D66 was elected Speaker of parliament. She won 74 of the 139 votes cast in the secret ballot, defeating incumbent speaker Khadija Arib from PvdA (38 votes) and Martin Bosma from PVV (27 votes). While the ballot was secret, it sounds like Bergkamp was supported by D66, VVD and CDA. The last votes could be DENK, who obviously did not vote for Bosma and hates Arib after she criticized DENK heavily for their personalized attack videos on MPs from other parties with migrant background.

The 49-year old Bergkamp is by her own words: "I am a lesbian, half-Moroccan, but also a woman, a human being, an Amsterdam citizen and a citizen of the world." She has been a MP since 2012, before that she was leader of the Dutch LGBT advocacy group for four years.

Do I remember correctly that Arib was involved in some sort of odd scandal?

Critical of DENK? Of Pechtold? And also got involved in the Dion Graus case* which probably ended her reasonable relationship with the PVV, which she tried to woo by allowing them to push the envelope.

She made more enemies than friends trying to play politics to secure a second term. And she wasn't that good at the nitty gritty of being Speaker, especially with logistics during Covid apparently, while also being arrogant.

*this is the odd scandal you are referring to i think.

Parliamentary staff apparently hated Arib, labelling her as manipulative and authoritarian. She also resisted Covid measures. Where the Senate has a digital quorum, online debates, and allows online votes, this is not the case for the Second Chamber.
And this summer the renovation of parliamentary builidings will finally start, which will take 5 years. It had been planned for years that the Second Chamber during this period will move to the old building of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This building was already renovated, including an almost exact replica of the chamber itself. Arib personally tried to sabotage the move which would have complicated the renovation.

[freek]

Largest party per municipality (postal votes only)

Only voters 70 years and older had the possibility to vote by mail.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Classifaction/status/1381158821129768963

[freek]

While the formation of a government is going very slow (negotiations between parties haven't even started yet), an MP has split of from her party already. Sole 50PLUS MP Lianne den Haan has turned independent. Something that was not completelu unexpected, before the elections it emerged that Den Haan disagreed with the party programme on key points as pension reform and retirement age. Still, a split within two months is preposterous.

[freek]

A map showing the desintegration of FvD. In blue the few remaining FvD MPs/senators/province councillors. In red those that left the party.

Most former FvD members have joined JA21, GO or Code Oranje. Others are independent councillors.  The designation 'Groep' or 'Statenlid' is used for those that did not name their newly formed fraction.
In Noord-Brabant & Flevoland vacancies exists, all candidates have either resigned or are not eligible because of not being a resident. In Zeeland one councillor joined the already existing regionalist Partij voor Zeeland, on a national level he is a member of JA21.
 

[freek]

Is there any other example in Dutch politics of a party suffering from this scale of defections from factionalism rows?

Not in this extent. A few examples come close though. All of them have similarities to FVD as populist right wing parties that experienced a very rapid growth.

PVV lost 17 out of 69 provincial seats because of defections in the 2011 - 2015 term, and had 7 MPs defecting in the same period (4 just before the 2012 elections, and 3 after). Don't know the numbers for local councils, but probably similar. Main reason for these defections were controversial speeches of Geert Wilders. Especially the 2014 speech where he asked his audience of party supporters if they wanted 'more or less Moroccans in the Netherlands' (the audience chanted 'less, less') caused many to resign or defect.

The LPF / Pim Fortuyn List was famous for its fragmentation during its short existence (2002-2006), caused by the permanent fight for party leadership.  In the 2003-2006 term alone 4 out of 8 MPs left the party (forming 3 different groups).

The Boerenpartij / Farmers Party lost 21 out of 44 provincial seats due to defections in the 1966 - 1970 term, and 5 out of 7 MPs in roughly the same period. 1966 was the breakthrough year for the BP, when party leader Hendrik Koekoek managed to expand its electorate from mainly small farmers to a more general protest party. This resulted in a gain of 43 seats in that year's province elections and many seats in the local elections the same years, also outside rural areas. For example 9% / 4 seats in the Amsterdam local council.
However, it turned out that many of these newly elected councillors had been convicted after WWII for collaboration with the Nazis, most famously senator Adams. Koekoek continued to support Adams, denying his conviction. This, and the authoritarian party leadership of Koekoek, led to mass defections. Most of them joined the unsucessful Binding Rechts party founded by defected MP Harmsen.

[freek]

The new government is sworn in today. Sigrid Kaag was not present, she tested positive for Covid yesterday.

 

[freek]

The new government may have a problem as Mona Keijzer (CDA), who was fired from the previous government as Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs in the fall when she publicly spoke out against the government's lockdowns and proposals for vaccination mandates, is considering taking up her seat in parliament, a scenario the CDA had tried to avoid. The seat would be hers when Wopke Hoekstra resigns from parliament to become minister next week. If the CDA declare her persona non grata, Keijzer, who crossed the "preference threshold" by receiving more than 18,000 personal votes in March, could still take up the seat and the government would already be down to 76 seats, a majority of 1.

Mona Keijzer announced today she is declining the seat.