Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

There have been two polls after the debate and the debate indeed did not change much. However, some trends continued like VVD sliding a bit and Volt has managed to get at least one seat at all polls now

Peilingwijzer (average of polls all except Peil)
VVD 39
PVV 19
CDA 18
D66 14
GL 12
SP 10
PvdA 13
CU 6
PvdD 6
50+ 2
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 4
Ja21 1
Volt 1

Futhermore, Hoekstra is desperately attacking Rutte now, calling out Rutte being visionless and attacking some of the umpopular measures, forgetting that CDA has been part of half of Rutte cabinet periods. While Hoekstra also called for the unemployment benefits to be halved in period

[SunSt0rm]

Infighting again at 50+. Leader Den Haan has called nr.3 verkoelen to withdraw after Verkoelen has called out the leader for accepting the Pension agreement a year ago, where the retirement age is 67. 50+ always have called for the retirement age to be 65 years. I think I have to agree with Verkoelen as whats the purpose of 50+ now after they accept the retirement of 67 now.

50+ really deserve to get out of parliament, but will probably squeeze into parliament just by their party name from low-informed voters. Heck, former leader Henk Krol, who defected from 50+, still get endorsement for 50+ when he is campaigning on the street for his new party

[SunSt0rm]

Peilingwijzer this week
VVD 38 (-1, compared to last week)
PVV 19
CDA 17 (-1)
D66 15 (+1)
GL 12
SP 10
PvdA 12 (-1)
CU 6
PvdD 6
50+ 2
SGP 3
Denk 2
FvD 4
Ja21 2 (+1)
Volt 2 (+1)

Not much has really changed so far this campaign. The trend is VVD and CDA are sliding a bit and D66 and Volt are gaining a bit since the start of the campaign as Freek has mentioned

[SunSt0rm]

https://fd.nl/achtergrond/1375699/op-zoek-naar-het-electorale-gat-op-links-ljc1caRHSw3o

"the gap on the left" - an article appearing in the Financieele Dagblad about how a "Danish" style social democratic party that is hard on immigration could potentially do well given polling and revive their hopes somewhat. The obvious candidate would be SP, with them already on many cultural issues being quite traditionalist and Jan Marijnissen saying he didn't like the way the left in the west had chosen the culture wars as a battleground or the cancel culture. But daughter Lilian tried to make migration an issue going beyond social dumping and calling for a revision for work permits, and it caused too much friction internally. You know have a movement within PvdA called "Vrij Links" that wishes to stop the debate about culture wars and start talking about secular progressive values as a starting point and then focus on economics.

The Dutch left continues to slide in the polls. Yet the median voter might still probably consider itself progressive, and I think in 2012 you had a SP then PvdA surge to shoulder Rutte (ok, after the most right-wing government in Dutch history, granted) but eventually falling just short and collapsing after the mistake that was the Purple coalition. Weirdly I can only see Timmermans being able to get back to that level in the short term. He actually can target the places a PvdA campaign to unite the Left needs to target (his "home" Parkstad being the prime example), and he has a way of being able to talk to several constituencies without tripping up. But he probably sees himself as more effective in Brussels. Plus the other left-wing parties wouldn't want to work with him as easily as they did with Asscher and now Ploumen.

Interesting article. Migration has always been a controversial topic in the left. The problem for the left parties in the Netherlands are that the party activists are to the left of their electorate on migration and very often out of touch. In 2018 former PvdA leader Asscher has spoken with the Danish social democrats to exchange ideas about migration. Later that year Asscher made start about thoughening on migration at a meeting with the Amsterdam branch (lol, the most progressive branch), but his idea was immediately rejected and people thought he sounded too much as Trump and since then Asscher didn't dare to talk about the topic anymore. Its no suprise the most controversial topic during Rutte-II for the PvdA (VVD-PvdA cabinet) wasn't about all the austrity cuts they have made, but on migration that cause uproar among the activists. The PvdA had to beg at the VVD to pardon 500 ayslum children. And indeed even at the SP it has caused uproar among its activists when Marijnissen tried to talk about migration.

 I don't really think Timmermans is the one that can really lift the Left, even though he won in 2019, but he would do better in Ploumen or Asscher would have. I think Rotterdam Mayor Aboutaleb has the potential to lead the PvdA back 30 seats. He is a Morrocan-Dutch politician, and thus can be sometimes be more tough on muslims (in particular) in a way while not being accused being racists like in 2015 after Charlie Hebdo attack when he told muslims extremists 'Go away, if you don't like to live Netherlands'. He has shown that he can be tough on his community if needed like in 2017 Turkey-Dutch riots in Rotterdam, is for law and order and is quite popular even among Leefbaar Rotterdam voters

[SunSt0rm]

Latest poll from Peil



It shows D66 is surging from Kaag strong performance in the media and from the debates. CDA is suprisingly holding ground sofar even though Hoekstra is having a horrific campaign sofar. VVD seems to slide even more, but I would be suprised if they lose seats compared to 2017. There is big difference between this poll and other pollsters where VVD is polling between 35-40 seats and PVV lower.50+ is at risk getting out of parliament after the infighting in the party, but I think they probably squeeze into just from their party name.  GL may be the biggest loser of this election after some weak performance from Klaver, the Klaver magic seems to be fading for some time now where its voters are going to PvdA, Volt, D66, PvdD, Bij1. I am wondering what Klaver will do if he indeed will lose that much.

This week there was controversity when Baudet was personally attacked by a comedian at RTL talkshow. Baudet left the program after the comedian was roasting about Baudet anti-semitism and joking about his girlfriend jews heritiage. RTL had to apology for the incident.

[SunSt0rm]

There is another political test that position you on the political spectrum with the major parties

https://www.kieskompas.nl/

[SunSt0rm]

Final polls are coming today, 4 in total.

2 have just published and it shows D66 and Volt momentum while VVD and CDA are getting lower. The left is stagnating and we have the possibility of more new parties beside JA21 and Volt. 50+ seriously at risk getting out of parliament

Kantar:

Ipsos:

[SunSt0rm]

Another final poll from I&O

So, BBB is another agrarian populist party and Splinter is a pro-laicite, anti-idpol left outfit?

BBB was founded when the government was proposed to limit the nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands by halving the country's livestock, that led to massive protest from farmers. They are a party that thinks CDA has become too green and opposed the green measures on agriculture.

Splinter is founded by PvdD MP van Kooten, its a center-left, green, progressive and secular party without the wokism.

I very doubt Splinter will get in, but BBB may seriously get in now that at least 3 pollsters have polled them and BBB may have some real support in rurals

[SunSt0rm]

Final poll from Peil


The polls seem to indicate that VVD will be the largest and get close to the 2017 result. There will be a fight for 2nd place between PVV, CDA and D66. PVV seem to be slight favorite, but D66 has the momentum. The Left will get a disappointing result tomorrow and question may be which left party will be the largest of the left. FvD will gain a bit, but still smaller than last year. Volt and JA21 will get into parliament, BBB and Bij1 have chances to make it, while 50+ is at risk getting out of parliament. I will make a prediction this evening

They need to raised the threshold to 5%

The beauty of the Dutch system is that any party with support can get into parliament and can make a difference and move the overton-window. If there were a 5% threshold many parties would never have been able to get presented or temporarly get out of parliament like D66, SP, CU, SGP, GL, 50+, PvdD and FvD. The fact that still many parties have a chance to get in now should say about the traditional parties. And if they do not contribute to democracy they will fade from like LPF or possibly 50+ after tomorrow. Though I may agree it could get messy after tomorrow.

[SunSt0rm]

My prediction for tomorrow:

VVD 34 (+1)
D66 19 (-)
PVV 19 (-1)
CDA 17 (-2)
PvdA 12 (+3)
SP 10 (-4)
GL 8 (-6)
FvD 7 (+5)
CU 6 (+1)
PvdD 6 (+1)
SGP 3 (-)
Volt 3 (+3)
JA21 2 (+2)
Denk 2 (-1)
50+ 1 (-3)
BBB 1 (+1)

Turnout 75% (-6%)

[SunSt0rm]

Is there any data on how turnout is going in the last 2 days?

Its estimated at 12% without the mailing vote, any person could vote though, but the 2 days were meant for people who were medically vulnerable. The mailing vote, which only 70 years or older persons can do, is a big mess. About 8% of the vote is invalid, the procedure seems to be too difficult to understand for seniors. Though the minister has changed the procedure to reduce the invalid ballots, so the expectation is that 4% of the mailing vote is invalid, still too many though

[SunSt0rm]

Standard question of

a) when will exit polls come out if any?
b) any links to live stream and/or results page ?

9pm CET, there will be a provisional exit poll, and 9:45pm CET final exit poll

you can probably find the broadcast and the results at nos.nl

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout at 74% one hour and a half before polls close:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372261995668443136

Turnout suprisingly high, seems to be heading towards the 2017 election turnut which was quite high

[SunSt0rm]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Maurice De Hond is already wrong about turnout as he predicted it would be clearly lower and could be below 70%. I am wondering whats motivating voters a lot this time, for stability like in 2017 when they backed Rutte? Kaagmentum? people coming out to vote against lockdowns? or voters motivated to vote for new parties? or probably a combination of all

D66 is very popular among students and probably the most popular party this year together with GL. D66 has very successfully frame themself as the party of education and thus students even though some of their plans hurt students like abolishing the student finance (GL supported too though). Many students are progressive, care about climate change, cosmopolitan, but not necessary left wing economics. I expect D66 will sweep the university cities as GL is not doing well. Also expect Volt to be strong at university cities

[SunSt0rm]

This is the biggest party map per the polls by Maurice de Hond done on 14th of march. Let's see how accurate they are but its Maurice De Hond so don't hold your breath.



I still can't believe university cities will back D66. But then it will mostly be staff voting as students might be with their parents.

Why? It is their core constituency.

Because D66 joined a fairly right-wing government and they allowed the studiebeurs to go. Idk I just also think that the emergence of competitors including VOLT and Bij1 (remember that D66 as the first post-materialist party attracted the woke types before it was cool) would harm them.

Studiebeurs was abolished during Rutte-II not Rutte-III (D66 indeed supported it). Volt will definetely eat up the D66 vote, but not BIJ1 and its questionable Volt is much more left-wing than D66. D66 may be post-materialis and may be somewhat woke, but its voters are also very pragmatic. Another strong constituency of D66 are affluent suburban where they more compete with the VVD. The idealist post-materalis and more woke party is GL that is competing more with BIJ1 for the most wokish voters.

[SunSt0rm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy4snoK_S0M

Livestream if people are interested

[SunSt0rm]

Exit Poll

VVD 35 (+2)
D66 27 (+8)
PVV 17 (-2)
CDA 14 (+5)
PvdA 9 (=)
SP 8 (-6)
GL 8 (-6)
FvD 7 (+5)
CU 4 (-1)
PvdD 6 (+1)
Volt 4 (+4)
SGP 3 (=)
JA21 3 (+3)
Denk 2 (-1)
BBB 1 (+1)
Bij1 1 (+1)

D66 really surged!
The left decimated!
CDA really bad!

[SunSt0rm]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

[SunSt0rm]

VVD/D66/CDA have a majority lol

And in the Senate?

I think we can safely conclude that D66 will be the largest party in the university cities

Next question is what the map will look like with D66 being number two. All the cities and university towns will probably be green, but then you got areas in Holland which both D66 and VVD do well in. The post-PvdA Friesland mess probably won't be cleaned up.

Probably some (non blue collar) cities and maybe even competing with VVD in some affluent suburban

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Yes, the latter part is especially true, because I know who someone who did... But i said to him it didn't make sense, because they will be in the government anyway, and if you doubt between left-wing parties and D66 because tactically voting for D66 is supposedly better because you would push the government to the left, but this bad result for the left-wing parties, means D66 has basically no reason to even consider what the left really wants, as they're absolutely decimated. I really don't get that strategy.

ALso, according to polling, some VVD'ers also went to D66 because they thought VVD is going to win anyway, and they wanted a stronger voice for D66 in that government or more emphasis on left-wing policies. (center-left or social liberal policies, not really left-wing).

Yea, D66 has the sweet spot where it can attract center right and center left voters. I think they get the best possibly position by persuading moderate VVD voters that a vote for D66 can push the VVD for more Green policy while center left voters were appealed to vote for the strongest Progressive vote. Very intersting!

[SunSt0rm]

Wait, is Otten backing JA21? He's in the background during Eerdmans interview. Why has Otten still got his own group in the Senate?

No thats EU JA21 faction leader Derk Jan Eppink

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

Yes, Hoekstra is done. Koolmees will be finance minister

I am very curious how many personal votes Omtzigt will get, I wont be completely shocked if Omtzigt will get more votes than Hoekstra

[SunSt0rm]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD