Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

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There is a first victim: PvdA leader Lodewijk Asscher just resigned. When he was Minister for Social Affairs (2012-2017), he was responsible for implementing these anti-fraud laws. There had been calls in the party for weeks  that he had to resign.

New PvdA leader is Lilianne Ploumen, until now #3 on the candidates list. Ploumen is an MP at the moment, and used to be the Foreign Trade minister 2012-2017.

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Official: Government has resigned

So, general elections in mid February, or in March as it was expected?

Very likely March 17th as planned

Why does the Netherlands hold elections on Wednesdays, and not Sundays like most other European countries?

Religious reasons. Especially protestants in the Netherlands (used to) observe a quite strict Sunday rest, even voting is out of the question. While this isn't true anymore for most of them, there is still a significant group of orthodox protestants that do have objections. The typical SGP or ChristenUnie voters. Orthodox protestant civil servants will also have objections working on Sunday, and venues will be unavailable as well, thus making organizing elections on this day difficult in the 'Bible belt' municipalities.

Since Sunday is out of the question for religious reasons, then Saturday as well because of the Jewish Sabbath, and maybe Friday too.

Monday is also impossible, because many preparations for the elections are done the day before.

So Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday remain. I think Wednesday was chosen because many polling stations are in primary schools, and in the past school children used to have the Wednesday afternoon off.

European Parliament elections are on Thursday, because European election law dictates that these should be held between Thursday and Sunday to keep the window as short as possible.

In the past, a few elections were held on Tuesday, instead of Wednesday. This was also for religious reasons. Orthodox protestant denominations observe a 'day of prayer for harvest and labour' on the second Wednesday of March, occassionally interfering with the prescribed window in Dutch election law. The law has been changed in 2014, when this occurred for the third time in 11 years. Regular elections are now on the third Wednesday in March.

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Some election related news:

• On Tuesday, the Senate passed the law that temporarily implements vote by mail for those over 70, and early voting on Monday and Tuesday in a limited number of polling stations.
• While unlikely, delaying the elections is still not out of the question. If it will be delayed, the new date will be somewhere in June.
• Most municipalities have managed to find enough 'covid proof' locations for polling stations. Traditionally, polling stations often are located in retirement homes and in schools, but both are unavailable now. Alternative locations are found in churches and sport venues. Some municipalities also open a polling station in a tent, or a drive through polling station.

I'll be volunteering as a polling station official again. I am scheduled for all 3 days of voting, in 3 different polling stations.

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New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

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A grand total of 41 party lists were submitted to the Electoral Council yesterday, 28 of them were not elected in 2017. It is expected that the final number will be lower, quite a few did not yet pay the deposit or did not yet collect enough declarations of support. Still, it will be a lot more than in 2017 (28 lists).

The final list will be announced on Friday. I'll write a few sentences about each new party afterwards.

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New poll by Peil.nl/Maurice de Hond. Hardly any movement compared to last week. First time any pollster is polling Volt above the threshold. Code Oranje is apparently hovering just below it.

Be aware that De Hond is not the most credible pollster, and tends to exaggerate trends.

Would Volt ever pass, though? Surely D66 covers the base for the really really pro-EU people.

Volt received 106k votes in the European elections, nearly 2%. There is some potential.

Still, I don't expect Volt to gain a seat. Typical Volt voters will probably vote strategically D66 (or GroenLinks) in a higher stakes event as the national elections.

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The new parties BIJ1, JA21, Code Oranje were already mentioned before, and Volt is the Dutch branch of the pan-European Volt party. A short profile (whenever possible) of the other participating parties:

18. NIDA
Moderate muslim party, more islam oriented than Denk. Where the Denk electorate is majority Turkish background, for Nida it is more Moroccan and other Arabic background. Currently represented in Rotterdam & The Hague city councils, and also in Almere city council after a PvdA councillor defected to Nida. In 2018 the party was part of a Rotterdam electoral pact with PvdA, GL and SP, until a 2014 tweet surfaced where party leader Nourdin el Ouali compared Israel with IS. The party participated in the 2019 province elections in both Noord-Holland & Zuid-Holland, with a OKish result: 11347 votes, about 1/6th of Denk. If the Partij van de Eenheid (list nr. 31) wouldn't have participated, I'd guess 20-30000 votes. Now maybe on the lower end of that estimate.

19. Piratenpartij
The Pirate Party. 35478 votes in 2017. I don't think the party will improve on that. Their 2017 party leader Ancilla van de Leest had more appeal than current party leader Matthijs Pontier. Pontier is a councillor in a water board (which in the Netherlands is a layer of government, not an iterrogation technique), elected on a joint list with De Groenen. About 20000 votes this time?

20. Libertaire Partij
Libertarian Party. First election participation in 1994, revived in 2012, without any successes this far. Compared to previous elections, the party programme is bit more moderate. 2017 result: 1492 votes, will end up in the low 1000s again.

21. JONG
I had never heard of this group before. A party for millenials apparently.

22. Splinter
Founded by former PvdD MP Femke-Merel van Kooten. She left PvdD because she refused to focus on animal rights only. While being an independent MP Van Kooten joined forces with Henk Krol (ex-50PLUS) for a while, before leaving them as well. Despite being an independent MP, she had some successes in parliament, for example a EUR1000 COVID19-bonus for healthcare workers.
Splinter calls itself a 'green, progressive, social-liberal, secular' party.

23. Boer Burger Beweging (BBB)
Farmer Civilian Movement. A party founded by farmers, leader is an agricultural journalist. In 2019 there were many protests by angry farmers, this inspired the foundation of BBB. More radical groups blocked highways and intimidated politicians, but these are not part of the party. Focus is obviously on rural and agricultural issues.

24. NLBeter
A party focusing on better health care, founded by healthcare workers. A similar party 'Zorgend Nederland' was denied ballot access after it submitted an invalid list of candidates to the Electoral Council.

25. Lijst Henk Krol
Henk Krol used to be the leader of 50PLUS, but left the party last year after infighting. Calls his new party 'progressive conservative' whatever that may be. His party programma is rather vague (the party wants 'good health care', 'care for the environment' and 'people to have a place to live', with some focus on safety and lower taxes), but not as single issue as 50PLUS.

26. Oprecht
The name means 'sincere', with a pun on 'on the right wing'. Led by Michael Ruperti, a lawyer who in November challenged Thierry Baudet for the FvD-leadership. One of the many new parties to the right of the VVD.

27. Jezus Leeft
'Jesus Lives'. A conservative christian party founded by Joop van Ooijen, an evangelist. The party participated in elections on all different levels since 2014, without any success. Van Ooijen's claim to fame is a conflict with local government, who tried to prevent him from writing a huge 'Jesus Saves' in roof tiles on his roof, because it was distracting for passing cars (his house is right next to the highway).

28. Trots op Nederland
Founded by Rita Verdonk in 2008 after her expulsion from the VVD. Polled really well for a while in that year (>15%), but did not gain a seat in 2010. Verdonk left the party, those that remained participated in the 2012 elections as part of 'Democratisch Politiek Keerpunt'. An attempt to participate in the 2017 elections failed. The party is still represented in the municipal council of Haarlem. One of the many parties to the right of the VVD.

29. U-Buntu Connected Front
Against racism, focusing on the interests of those with African roots. It participated (without much success) in the municipal elections in Amsterdam in 2018, 0.3%.

30. & 33. 'Lijst-Zeven' & Vrij en Sociaal Nederland
This is a fun one, for those interested in Dutch electoral law. A group of conspiracy theorists and activists against the Covid-19 measures started 'Vrij en Sociaal Nederland'. Since last month, a moderate and a radical faction are feuding for party control. Last week, both factions seperately handed in candidate lists. Because signatures were already being collected, both lists had the same candidates. However, each group handed in declarations of support from separate districts. Probably depending on the faction membership of those responsible for collecting in each district. It probably caused some head aches at the Electoral Council, but the law provides for this (extremely rare) situation. Main principle is that a voter hands in the candidate list, and that the Electoral Council is not allowed to merge separate applications.

Since the 2 party members authorized to give permission to use the party name for a list were both in the moderate faction, one list is officially named 'Vrij en Sociaal Nederland'. It wrested control of the declarations of support in 6 districts only though. Each candidate on the lists has to give permission in writing for their candidacy, this group had 10 of these, the remaining 18 candidates were removed.

The other list is officially nameless, its first candidate is Anna Zeven. On this list also Willem Engel, a dancing instructor / Covid expert / protest leader. On the ballot in 12 districts, with 21 candidates. Oddly enough, 3 candidates are on both lists. This is permitted, but not in the same district.

On Thursday, both factions are going to appeal at the Council of State (the court of appeal for administrative law)

All other parties run in less than 10 districts:

• 31. Partij voor de Eenheid (Unity Party). Also a muslim party, but more conservative and provocative. Only represented in The Hague city council. The party is led by Arnoud van Doorn, a Dutch convert to islam and former PVV city coumcillor (before his conversion obviously). A previous incarnation 'Islam Democraten' participated in a few electoral districts in 2006, 4339 votes. Now maybe a bit more, but not many more.
  
• 32. Feestpartij (Party Party ) is the successor to Partij van de Toekomst, a joke party that participated in 2002, 2003 & 2012.
  
• 34. Wij zijn Nederland (We are Netherlands) is a right-extremist party
  
• 35. Modern Nederland wants to govern via internet polling
  
• 36. De Groenen (the Greens) is a green party that already exists since the 1980s, and managed to elect some municipal and province councillors in the 1980s & 1990s. Now all that remains are a few dozen members that pretend to be a party. It was more or less forced to participate. Otherwise it would lose its party registration, and for legal reasons it is unable to renew it.
  
• 37. Partij voor de Republiek wants a republic.

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And today there will be a court case started by PvdD to force government to open the option to vote by mail to all voters, not limiting it to voters over 70.

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37 parties on the ballot, a new record.

Because many parties don't run in every district, the maximum in 1 district/ballot is 33 party lists, in Amsterdam. The other 18 districts in 'European Netherlands' have 29, 30, 31 or 32 lists. The BES islands in the Caribbean have 21 party lists (list numbers 1 to 20, and list 29: Ubuntu Connected Front).

33 lists is still a record though.

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Maybe a ballot redesign could be a good idea for the next election

https://twitter.com/casperkalb/status/1367507305445675008

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For voters abroad, there is currently an experiment with a redesigned ballot:

https://mobile.twitter.com/LuukDeCock/status/1365302333870112770

Mark a party, and at the bottom mark the number of the candidate.

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New poll by I&O research:



CDA & VVD slowly losing some support, D66 & Volt gaining. BIJ1 also polled on 1 seat for the first time. BBB & Code Oranje polling not far below the threshold.

As always: Dutch polls are traditionally in seats, not percentages. For percentages: divide by 1.5

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Past elections https://www.verkiezingensite.nl was pretty good

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Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

Its historically a fishing port, the kind of Christian one like Katwijk, but that got shafted for a bunch of reasons and is now mostly known for its suicide rate and cocaine trade. Has always been one of the PVV's best towns outside of Limburg that FvD started to take over too. Very lower middle class and white means far right do well.

Volendam is historically catholic, otherwise everything is true. Because it was the only Catholic fishing town, it is also been very isolated in the past (all surrounding towns were farming oriented). It is also famously inbred. Amsterdam hospitals facilitate genetic testing for couples from Volendam who want to start a family, because of 4 different known genetic defects.

One reason for the CDA decline might be Mona Keijzer, who was born there. She won large amounts of personal votes there in the past. Because she is junior minister for Economic Affairs, might also be held responsible for the Covid19 measures against small businesses.

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why did CDA gain in Schagen?

Candidate #28 Jelle Beemsterboer is from the beautifully named village of Tuitjenhorn in Schagen municipality. He ran a campaign for personal votes.

From Noord-Holland regional news:
https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/282356/honderden-posters-om-jelle-beemsterboer-de-kamer-in-te-helpen-kost-flink-wat-geld

A similar reason explains the CDA decrease in Dalfsen, Ommen etc. In 2017 there was a campaign for Maurits von Martels, a farmer from Dalfsen. He was elected MP, but did not make much impression in parliament. Party leadership placed him low on the list again, and he decided to not run for re-election anymore.

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BIJ1 is probably safe as Rotterdam is still out and the results in Amsterdam is not complete.

There is some rumor, beside Omtzigt getting more votes than Hoekstra, that its not out of the question Van Haga will get more votes than Baudet. I know a friend who counted the personal votes and he said that Van Haga and Baudet roughly got equal personal votes. FvD and Baudet has suprisingly been silence since the results even though they won quite a lot

Might be probable. In my polling station it was roughly 2:1 Van Haga - Baudet

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I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

CDA had one candidate from Sint Eustatius, and UCF two candidates.

Similarly, BIJ1 had one candidate from Saba, and was the 2nd party there.

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Postal votes from abroad have not been added yet. Afaik the count results of these will be released next Tuesday.

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Postal votes from abroad have not been added yet. Afaik the count results of these will be released next Tuesday.

Is there any chance these could alter the seat numbers?

Probably not. If D66 did really well it might gain a seat at the expense of either VVD or FvD.

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It is expected, based on the preliminary results, that 3 candidates have been elected on preferential votes only:

• Kauthar Bouchallikht, #9 on the GroenLinks list
• Lisa Westerveld, #10 on the GroenLinks list, already an MP
• Marieke Koekkoek, #4 on the Volt list

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Amsterdam finally has a final count, the result currently may have shift to give D66 a 24th seat at the expense of VVD. There are still votes left from abroad to count which may shift it again, possibly VVD gaining back the seat from D66 or even FvD

The Hague just announced its results, including the postal votes from abroad. Seat distribution remains the same (so VVD 34, D66 24, FvD 8 ).

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Ollongren & Jorritsma just resigned after a classic mistake: Meeting notes of Ollongren were photographed when she left the parliament building this morning. She was hurrying home after being tested positive for Covid-19.

https://twitter.com/volkskrant/status/1375052001474719753

The meeting notes were partially visible, and revealed some interesting insights. Oops.

'Position Omtzigt - job elsewhere' Pieter Omtzigt is the victim of a backstabbing campaign by the CDA leadership, probably because of his independent way of working. Omtzigt is currently overworked, and at home. He also hardly participated in the CDA campaign. Apparently other parties have doubts about the CDA stability, and are speculating that Omtzigt might leave parliament or split from CDA. Wopke Hoekstra was quick to deny that he brought this up during his first meeting with Jorritsma & Ollongren.

'Negotiation style Wopke Hoekstra' VVD & D66 take issue with it, apparently.

'Majority in the Senate' All parties can live with a coalition that does not have a majority in the Senate

'Leftist parties don't hold each other very strongly' It is possible that either PvdA or GroenLinks could be part of a coalition, not necessarily both of them.

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Map with all precincts: https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2021/hoe-stemde-jouw-buurt~v427721/.

I hit a paywall.

The same map is here as well:  https://pointer.kro-ncrv.nl/verkiezingskaart-tk2021

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Do they serve in any local or regional coalitions?

No, not yet.

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Rutte survived the no confidence vote so Rutte IV looks to be back on. I think D66 and CDA will suffer though for saying one thing and doing another.

Only the current coalition voted against the no-confidence vote. Even SGP was in favour, which is very rare.

A lighter 'disapproval motion' did pass however, with only the VVD voting against.