Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[SunSt0rm]

I personally find D66's priorities to be strange, as D66 and CU are allies against VVD and CDA on most issues).

Which issues would those be? Seems like the only thing CU and D66 would have in common against VVD/CDA is legislation that would favour smaller parties.

Migration and sustainability in particular

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/jlowijk/status/1433772613814345732

[Zinneke]

D66 starting to collapse too according to Maurice de Hond.



I said that fragmentation won't affect Dutch politics in the long run, but that being said I don't think a new election will help at all now if the big winners are the BBB. VVD seem untouchable and at the same time the weakening of their partners corners them into a rock and a hard place with a fragmented left and far right.

[Flyersfan232]

5% thershold

[Zinneke]

From "new leadership" hero to zero : Kaag has a motion of censure by the parliament against her pass, causing her to resign. If it weren't for the CDA's laughable descent she would be probably the biggest loser of the last 6 months. The Afghanistan "debacle" made her position untenable (this is after all, unlike the UK, still a country where if any Minister messes up they are subject to parliamentary scrutiny.  Overall just a total busted flush though, from trying to part way with Rutte to...staying in his government? And very little advancement in negotiations despite supposedly being the most constructive party?

Teflon Mark survives a vote himself. Of course he does.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/BasEickhout/status/1438563365593493507

Quite a solid point by Bas Eickhout here : Dutch foreign policy in Afghanistan was largely dictated by the VVD-CDA tandem wanting the Dutch to stay in and tie their mast to American leadership, as well as accept very few afghan helpers that were left for dead in Kabul. Difficult to blame Kaag but ministerial responsibility is still a thing.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/mattsteinglass/status/1439203247256973314

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/f_marone/status/1442948529106812928

[SunSt0rm]

After a rollercoaster, where the minority and even the extra parliamentary government was explored, D66 has folded and has chosen to negotiate the Rutte-III version with VVD, CDA and CU above new elections.

[Zinneke]

peak D66.

[Logical]

This is what happens when you don't cut D66 in half after giving them a stint in government.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1444730168522809345

CDA +3

[DavidB.]

GroenLinks MP Bart Snels unexpectedly resigned from parliament because of the GL parliamentary group's increasing cooperation with the PvdA: he thinks depending his vote in parliament on continuing negotiations with the PvdA is a violation of his mandate as an MP elected for GL and therefore betrayal of his voters. He thinks GL should have entered into government negotiations even without the PvdA, decrying the latter party's "political opportunism" ("I don't know what they stand for") and claiming "combatting climate change and inequality cannot wait until after the next election."

Snels belongs to the "liberal" wing of GL -  he was their head of communications under Halsema and always felt affinity with D66 - and had been quite successful as GL's financial spokesman in parliament since 2017, focusing on tax evasion by multinational corporations, on government transparency, and on the childcare benefits scandal (forcing former PvdA leader to testify before the parliamentary commission before the 2021 general election, to the PvdA's dismay, which eventually led to Asscher's resignation as minister and party leader). Snels had once been close to party leader Klaver, but had been gradually removed from his inner circle as the party moved to the left.

[Zinneke]

Mona Keijzer (CDA) has been fired from the Rutte government for opposing the Coronapass.

[DavidB.]

Crisis within the SP. The board has expelled 33 members, including the only opposing candidates for the national chairmanship (Tijs Hardam, chairman SP Rotterdam) and deputy chairmanship (Michel Eggermont, member of the States Provincial in Utrecht).

The expelled members are all associated with former SP youth organization Rood (Red), with which all ties were cut earlier this year after Rood introduced a motion at the SP convention calling on the SP to not enter the government, or with internal discussion platform Marxist Forum. The SP claims Rood and Marxist Forum are, in fact, political parties, and has a policy of banning people for being a member of multiple political parties. But in this case, the assertion is hard to take seriously given that both Rood and Marxist Forum are not even registered as parties: they keep supporting and campaigning for the SP.

The real reason for the purge seems to be that the SP party elite does not like what Rood and Marxist Forum stand for, i.e. a sharp left turn, and views them as a threat. The fact that more radical leftist elements took over within Rood over the last couple of years also shows a generational divide, with Rood not only being more radically left-wing on bread and butter issues, but also more "intersectional" and focused on climate issues. This crisis takes place in a context in which it is clear to every outsider that the current political course of the SP has been completely fruitless: its last 10 years have been characterized by lost elections, lost elections, and even more lost elections.

In some of the big cities with a large university population, the SP may now face problems with its street activism in the upcoming local elections: local SP branches often rely on young people who are active within and sympathize with Rood, whose leadership has been expelled. Local elections will take place in March next year. The leading candidate for the SP in the city of Utrecht, Floris Boudens, was also expelled.

[PSOL]

What does SP even stand for other than a familial cult of personality?

[Zinneke]

Netherlands first Western European country to have a form of lockdown since the summer. This will be very costly politically to the sitting current affairs government.

What does SP even stand for other than a familial cult of personality?

I think that's a bit harsh. SP actually have policies that don't revolve around what the leader thinks of the issue at the time, unlike PVV or FvD for example, both of which are more cult-like but for different reasons. SP's internal issues are classic factionalism that you see everywhere, they just lack the professionalism of a PvdA/CDA in hiding theirs.

 

[PSOL]

Police fire on protesters
I would expect to see this happen in Belarus or the United States.

[DavidB.]

The partial lockdown is likely to get stricter on Friday. Meanwhile, the government is trying to push through parliament the option of having a 2G policy (access only for vaccinated and recovered people) for "non-essential" facilities. Only VVD and D66 are truly enthusiastic, but eventually CDA, PvdA and probably CU will always vote along with them. Volt has been very pro-lockdown/pro-2G as well, at odds with the preference of many of their young voters.

Today, local elections take place in 4 municipalities that will soon merge. Two in Noord-Brabant: Uden and Landerd will form the municipality of Maashorst; Boxmeer, Cuijk, Sint Anthonis, Mill en Sint Hubert, and Grave will form Land van Cuijk. These municipalities both have a semi-rural character, with Cuijk being an "exurb" for Nijmegen with quite some of commuters and Uden being a town with some sort of a regional function. And in Noord-Holland, Langedijk and Heerhugowaard will form Dijk en Waard; Purmerend will annex the Beemster. Dijk en Waard is also semi-suburban, Purmerend is a working class satellite town for Amsterdam but will now also incorporate the very rural Beemster, in which the VVD tended to have one of its best results nationally. Like in the general election, early voting was possible on Monday and Tuesday. Polling stations close at 9 PM.

[DavidB.]

The government formation process continues, though compared to our eastern neighbors, the parties take their time: there should be a government by January. Theoretically, negotiations could still break down, but this would mean new elections and a lot of political uncertainty in an unpredictable social environment (partial lockdown, riots, new Covid wave, people tired of Covid measures, increasing polarization, populist parties rising in the polls again) - it is unlikely they'd risk it.

Some things have leaked already. Rutte-IV will invest in new nuclear power plants (a long-held wish of the VVD, with public support growing and growing), increase the number of immigrants allowed into the country as refugees (Rutte-III already reached "record" after "record"), become a lot "greener" on climate issues, make child day-care facilities mostly free in order to push more women onto the labor market, and reach a comprehensive agreement to decrease nitrogen emissions that would end the political stalemate following the Supreme Court's far-reaching ruling in 2019. The VVD appear to be the biggest loser of the formation once again - not that VVD voters could have hoped for anything more after Rutte-II and III.

In terms of personnel, there will be 20 ministers (up from 16 in Rutte-III) and 10 deputy ministers. In Rutte-III, one minister after another had to resign due to burnouts or other medical issues, there were many complaints about the workload, and over the last year there were so many reshuffles that even for political junkies it has been almost impossible to keep up. The VVD will get to appoint 8 ministers, D66 6, CDA 4, and ChristenUnie 2 - shifting the balance further away from the two Christian parties, towards the two liberal parties (currently: 6-4-4-2). It is highly unlikely that CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra will keep the Finance Ministry, as the second-biggest party gets to choose the second most important ministry. Rumor has it that Kaag herself would be interested in becoming Finance Minister, but it remains to be seen whether that is true. Would probably be a good move PR-wise, as Dutch Finance Ministers tend to be popular and are usually seen as capable. Another question is whether Hugo de Jonge, the CDA's current Deputy Prime Minister and former party leader, can stay on as Health Minister. Within the CDA party machine his position remains solid, but his relationship with the new leader Hoekstra isn't the best and outside the CDA De Jonge, who has received a lot of criticism over the Netherlands' haphazard, inconsistent Covid policies and slow vaccination rollout, is rather unpopular. The VVD would love for him to stay on: every Covid press conference shows an enormous contrast between De Jonge and the skillful communicator Rutte, who has taken credit for everything that did go well.

Other interesting issues include the question how the new government seeks to pay lip service to the broad demand for a new way of governing - that is, more dualism between the government and parliament and more room for parliament to affect government policy. Apparently, the aim is for the coalition agreement to be much shorter and to include only targets - with the new ministers being responsible for the way these targets are reached. Dutch political history makes me skeptical anything will actually change apart from papers and agreements, but we'll see.

[H. Ross Peron]

Good to see Dutch public opinion is pro-nuclear. I guess its the one unambiguous benefit of a liberal-led centre-right government.

[DavidB.]

Good to see Dutch public opinion is pro-nuclear. I guess its the one unambiguous benefit of a liberal-led centre-right government.

A poll by EenVandaag in November found that 60% of the Dutch support nuclear power plants in the Netherlands, while 29% oppose them.


The majority of VVD, D66, PVV, CDA, FVD, JA21 and Volt voters support nuclear energy, a plurality of CU voters hold the same position. Pluralities of PvdA and SP voters oppose nuclear energy and so do the majority of GL and PvdD voters. I don't trust the SGP figure here - most likely the numbers are inverted and 85% support nuclear energy. The SGP itself supports more nuclear power plants.


There is currently one operational nuclear power plant in the Netherlands.

[DavidB.]

VVD, D66, CDA and CU aim to present their coalition agreement before the Christmas break, informateurs Johan Remkes (VVD) and Wouter Koolmees (D66) write in a letter to parliament. This means negotiations are in the final stage.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge had to announce that the government will delay sending its 2G draft bill to parliament. Under 2G, access to "non-essential facilities in society" would be denied to those without a vaccination or recovery QR code. Currently, for many facilities, 3G is used, with testing being an option in addition to vaccination and recovery. However, De Jonge also wants to implement 2G in "non-essential stores", for which a QR code is currently not needed under 3G. Most notably, the ChristenUnie is opposed to 2G: they want to introduce a 1G system in which everyone, vaccinated and unvaccinated, has to test instead. In the end I suspect it is likely for Volt, PvdA and GroenLinks to provide De Jonge his majority, but for a government party like the ChristenUnie to oppose Covid policy is rather exceptional. It shows that parliament is no longer willing to act as a rubber stamp machine and instead slowly but surely taking more power vis-a-vis the government on Covid policy.

[Estrella]

Today, local elections take place in 4 municipalities that will soon merge. Two in Noord-Brabant: Uden and Landerd will form the municipality of Maashorst; Boxmeer, Cuijk, Sint Anthonis, Mill en Sint Hubert, and Grave will form Land van Cuijk. These municipalities both have a semi-rural character, with Cuijk being an "exurb" for Nijmegen with quite some of commuters and Uden being a town with some sort of a regional function. And in Noord-Holland, Langedijk and Heerhugowaard will form Dijk en Waard; Purmerend will annex the Beemster. Dijk en Waard is also semi-suburban, Purmerend is a working class satellite town for Amsterdam but will now also incorporate the very rural Beemster, in which the VVD tended to have one of its best results nationally. Like in the general election, early voting was possible on Monday and Tuesday. Polling stations close at 9 PM.

What's behind the Dutch obsession with making municipalities bigger and bigger? I like the idea and think more countries should adopt it, but it's gotten to the point where it seems just pointless.

[DavidB.]

What's behind the Dutch obsession with making municipalities bigger and bigger? I like the idea and think more countries should adopt it, but it's gotten to the point where it seems just pointless.

Supposedly efficiency. Though you're absolutely right: the idea that Dutch municipalities are still getting more efficient by merging and merging all the time seems unfounded in reality and increasingly draws skepticism. After reaching a certain size, it doesn't seem as if efficiency actually increases. The tide seems to be turning now: the merger of Scherpenzeel with Barneveld was cancelled due to near-unanimous opposition in Scherpenzeel. Still, the Rutte II government's aim to make sure all municipalities had 100.000+ inhabitants appears to be in the background, and municipalities experience pressure to merge.

Perhaps the main driver behind the mergers is the Rutte II government's decentralization of quite a lot of tasks in the area of healthcare. Of course this was aimed to be a budget cut, with the municipalities left underfunded (still incredible the PvdA agreed to this and helped carry it out). This soon turned out to be disastrous, with heartbreaking stories about children not receiving the healthcare they needed. It seems as if smaller and poorer municipalities tend to have more difficulty buying good healthcare - which then leads to additional mergers.